ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

NOAA Recon continues to circle inside the eye of Helene, hope everything is ok with the plane.

URNT15 KWBC 262322
NOAA2 1709A HELENE HDOB 21 20240926
231230 2824N 08413W 7524 02027 9446 +222 +151 198022 024 /// /// 03
231300 2826N 08414W 7528 02021 9433 +241 +147 193023 025 /// /// 03
231330 2828N 08413W 7514 02040 9434 +245 +132 187025 026 /// /// 03
231400 2828N 08411W 7514 02036 9429 +247 +127 192031 032 /// /// 03
231430 2826N 08410W 7525 02026 9437 +236 +135 199028 032 /// /// 03
231500 2825N 08411W 7513 02038 9441 +228 +142 204024 025 /// /// 03
231530 2826N 08413W 7513 02037 9441 +227 +151 199022 024 /// /// 03
231600 2828N 08415W 7513 02038 9431 +244 +140 190021 021 /// /// 03
231630 2830N 08414W 7525 02029 9435 +243 +127 185024 027 /// /// 03
231700 2831N 08412W 7488 02067 9430 +244 +128 187031 032 /// /// 03
231730 2831N 08410W 7518 02031 9433 +240 +139 187031 032 /// /// 03
231800 2829N 08410W 7530 02011 9434 +231 +148 196029 033 /// /// 03
231830 2829N 08412W 7526 02022 9439 +228 +152 199025 028 /// /// 03
231900 2831N 08413W 7514 02034 9432 +241 +132 195029 031 /// /// 03
231930 2833N 08411W 7521 02028 9430 +243 +134 186030 032 /// /// 03
232000 2832N 08409W 7512 02037 9427 +245 +144 183031 033 /// /// 03
232030 2831N 08409W 7513 02036 9434 +238 +142 191031 032 /// /// 03
232100 2829N 08409W 7496 02059 9437 +233 +135 199031 032 /// /// 03
232130 2827N 08409W 7512 02041 9439 +231 +148 205031 032 /// /// 03
232200 2826N 08410W 7513 02036 9437 +232 +146 214030 032 /// /// 03

[tolakram]

I want to get this saved. Helene is pushing back the front which had just cleared my area. Outflow is incredibly vigorous.



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=c ... =undefined

[Janie2006]

Yes it is, hopefully wobbles back or places like Cedar Key are going to be in even more trouble then they already are.

There's no better place than any other. This storm is just catastrophic, no matter who ends up the loser.

For sure. It’s been breezy all day in New Orleans out the N most of the day 20ish which based on the trough and where we are in relation is clearly surface flow.

Same here in Mobtown (Mobile). Cloudy, breezy, actually very comfortable behind that weak front today.

[Michele B]

100% you, I and NDG were on it and maybe a few others. I've lived here since 1976. You kinda learn how these things behave minus the meteorology degree. Credit to Bay News 9 and Spectrum News they've been all over Perry area or Taylor county. Klystron is the real deal!

Maybe a few others. Give it up again for the Icon once again for a Gulf storm in 2024. It’s probably a Top 3 or 4 global these days - at least for the Gulf.

To be fair, ICON did have its flaws with Helene by sticking to the eastern solutions near Tampa longer than other global models. (Of course this doesn't take away things that it did well.)

I thought the ICON said the Big Bend area? I still like it best, even if it was off by about 50 miles.

[HurricaneBelle]

 https://x.com/BN9/status/1839442155343089762

[Steve]

I want to get this saved. Helene is pushing back the front which had just cleared my area. Outflow is incredibly vigorous.

https://i.imgur.com/guYyPU0.gif

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=c ... =undefined

Look at that channel. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this exact setup. Just due north moisture channel looking like a Pineapple Express.

[Bocadude85]

St.Pete is now gusting over hurricane force. Those are some nasty bands moving in.

[sicktght311]

I want to get this saved. Helene is pushing back the front which had just cleared my area. Outflow is incredibly vigorous.

https://i.imgur.com/guYyPU0.gif

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=c ... =undefined

The pure energy coming out of this system is wild

[TampaWxLurker]

76 mph gust in St. Pete.

[Tekken_Guy]

Kinda nervous here, just northwest of Atlanta. A lot of old, large trees near my house and near my parents’ house. We are getting Opal vibes… we lost a ton of trees then.

Hey Buck. Good luck up there.

Thanks, brother!

Prayers for all those in the path.

If it makes the northeast turn that some of the models are showing then Atlanta could dodge a bullet, but eastern GA could get much more hammered. If it follows the NHC though that’s much worse for ATL.

[NDG]

[Teban54]

FYI, here are all past storms named Helene. The name has quite a strong track record with the majority of uses being hurricanes. Interestingly enough, all previous Helenes first became a TC in the MDR. Helene 2024 is the first (and almost certainly last) time the name was used for a home-grown.

The strongest Helene in the past was the 1988 one, which was a classic recurving Cabo Verde hurricane that peaked at 125 kts in the MDR. We'll see whether Helene 2024 takes over that.

Hurricane Helene (1958) – a powerful storm that grazed Cape Hatteras causing $11 million in damage.
Hurricane Helene (1988) – Category 4 hurricane that stayed in the open ocean
Tropical Storm Helene (2000) – entered the Caribbean Sea, made landfall at Fort Walton Beach, Florida, exited at the North Carolina coast and regained tropical storm strength
Hurricane Helene (2006) – Category 3 hurricane that stayed in the open ocean, never threatening land
Tropical Storm Helene (2012) – tropical storm that affected Trinidad and Tobago and Mexico
Hurricane Helene (2018) – Category 2 hurricane that formed between Cape Verde and West Africa
Hurricane Helene (2024) – currently active

[caneman]

Maybe a few others. Give it up again for the Icon once again for a Gulf storm in 2024. It’s probably a Top 3 or 4 global these days - at least for the Gulf.

To be fair, ICON did have its flaws with Helene by sticking to the eastern solutions near Tampa longer than other global models. (Of course this doesn't take away things that it did well.)

I thought the ICON said the Big Bend area? I still like it best, even if it was off by about 50 miles.

It's hitting the big bend area. It wasn't at 1st it was windshield wiper all over Gulf coast but did lock down for 48 hours

[ScottNAtlanta]

This isn't looking like it will pass east of Atlanta. We will be on the dirty side of the storm. I think I have now cleared 4 inches here at my house and the worst is yet to come

[NDG]

 https://x.com/BN9/status/1839442155343089762

Make that 76 mph winds gusting in Downtown St Pete

Sep 26, 7:20 pm 82 81 94 95 S 53G76

[Category5Kaiju]

I wonder what the chances are that Helene overtakes Beryl in achieving a lower minimum central pressure but doesn't top Beryl's 165 mph sustained winds

[ScottNAtlanta]

What is going on with recon. They are circling around the center over and over. The dropsonde had 944 pressure with 22mph winds

[aspen]

I want to get this saved. Helene is pushing back the front which had just cleared my area. Outflow is incredibly vigorous.

https://i.imgur.com/guYyPU0.gif

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=c ... =undefined

Curse that outflow lol. Gonna be cloudy for an entire week up in the northeast from it.

[gatorcane]

76 mph gust in St. Pete.

The GFS and Euro were right, they were calling for a more east track and 70-80mph wind gusts across Tampa Bay.

[GTStorm]

Hey Buck. Good luck up there.

Thanks, brother!

Prayers for all those in the path.

If it makes the northeast turn that some of the models are showing then Atlanta could dodge a bullet, but eastern GA could get much more hammered. If it follows the NHC though that’s much worse for ATL.

Which models are showing a NE turn?