Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[eastcoastFL]

Interestingly, this could be stronger off the east coast, then the question is - does the trough axis go neutral and drive it inland further up the coast?

And that’s where it could really add to the flooding issues in the SE.

[eastcoastFL]

Saved 12Z Euro loop:
https://i.postimg.cc/VkKMdQV5/ec-fast-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh72-240.gif

What do you think Gatorcane, can we get more than a TS on that type of track??

I think it's possible. The GFS shows a CAT 2/3 hurricane and has the system even further west than the Euro before the ENE turn, and it is likely too far west anyway. If we go back and look at historical tracks, would we find one that hits the peninsula as a hurricane on an ENE track from the Central Gulf?

https://i.postimg.cc/Pr4GV6wH/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-204.gif

This might be the one and only time that I will ever say I hope this ends up our way in S. Florida. North Florida, GA and the Carolinas can’t handle anymore of this.

[gatorcane]

The entire 18Z GFS track shifted to the right quite a bit this run, and while it landfalls in the panhandle (at almost 200 hours which is still far out, plenty of shifting to still happen), that hook to the right is definitely something to keep an eye on because this could end up easily being a storm that hits the west coast of Florida from the Central Gulf on an ENE track.

[SFLcane]

Seems like there is a protective ridge over FL on the gfs that atleast keeps it east of extreme SFL. Hoping it stays far away from The panhandle.

[Mouton]

Unfortunately latest 18Z GFS has it a bit west of Helene landfall as a 980 mb storm, cat 1-2. It was quite accurate for helene as I recall. Not looking for any rerun, just cleared out the debris this AM, yes as far east as Amelia Island. Still 8 days out so things can change.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week.
This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of
Mexico during the latter portion of next week, and interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy. Helene did little too cool the waters in the EGOM as it moved fast thru that area.

[psyclone]

They dropped some but they're still warm enough to power a strong storm. We've had a deep southwest flow off the gulf in the wake of Helene and it remains stubbornly hot and humid owing to all that gulf warmth..

[Horn1991]

The entire 18Z GFS track shifted to the right quite a bit this run, and while it landfalls in the panhandle (at almost 200 hours which is still far out, plenty of shifting to still happen), that hook to the right is definitely something to keep an eye on because this could end up easily being a storm that hits the west coast of Florida from the Central Gulf on an ENE track.

https://i.postimg.cc/G27ftMsv/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh78-216.gif

What's that sweet rainmaker for Houston just before the real deal?

[Stormlover70]

Helene was devastating. Even 100 miles offshore of us. Keep it away!!!!!!!

[SFLcane]

18z GEFS ensembles..

[Weathertracker96]

18z GEFS ensembles..

https://i.postimg.cc/LX9qsm97/IMG-9528.jpg

More east it seems. Timing will be everything regarding the steering.

[CrazyC83]

Even if this moves over the Florida peninsula, we have to watch to make sure the trough doesn't pull it back in for a second landfall on the east coast, especially in the Carolinas. That would make the misery even worse.

[Teban54]

0z GFS peaks at 973 mb followed by a slightly weaker landfall near Panama City, similar to 18z in track and slightly stronger in intensity (but much weaker than the ballistic 12z):

[canebeard]

Rear flank downdraft hurricane formation???

Looking at the 00 GFS, the upper high that maintained Helene is now offshore the Southeast coast and forecast to move/expand southward, then expands westward: then supplies favorable outflow for the supposed new formation South of western Cuber, again. Appears similar, on a much larger scale of course, to new thunderstorms forming along the outflow boundaries of the old. 120 hr gfs 200 mb map below

[GCANE]

My first instinct, without looking at all the variable and parameters, is that if this starts deep in W Carib and moves thru the Yucatan Channel, this aint going to be no strong TS or weak Cat1. Need to see the details in the next day on how GFS forecasts the environment for it to develop.

[HurricaneRyan]

I'm getting Opal/Roxanne and Isidore/Lili vibes from this secondary system just after Helene.

[cycloneye]

2 AM:

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this
week. This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf
of Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[jlauderdal]

My first instinct, without looking at all the variable and parameters, is that if this starts deep in W Carib and moves thru the Yucatan Channel, this aint going to be no strong TS or weak Cat1. Need to see the details in the next day on how GFS forecasts the environment for it to develop.

Euro has it stretched out with a weak low riding NE out to sea. Euro hasn't exactly been showing it has a handle on tropical setups recently, so will toss this solution for now. Something more organized seems likely given the favorable conditions.

[mantis83]

6Z gfs has this a weak stretched out mess like the euro now......