CrazyC83 wrote:Interestingly, this could be stronger off the east coast, then the question is - does the trough axis go neutral and drive it inland further up the coast?
And that’s where it could really add to the flooding issues in the SE.
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CrazyC83 wrote:Interestingly, this could be stronger off the east coast, then the question is - does the trough axis go neutral and drive it inland further up the coast?
gatorcane wrote:Blown Away wrote:gatorcane wrote:Saved 12Z Euro loop:
https://i.postimg.cc/VkKMdQV5/ec-fast-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh72-240.gif
What do you think Gatorcane, can we get more than a TS on that type of track??
I think it's possible. The GFS shows a CAT 2/3 hurricane and has the system even further west than the Euro before the ENE turn, and it is likely too far west anyway. If we go back and look at historical tracks, would we find one that hits the peninsula as a hurricane on an ENE track from the Central Gulf?
https://i.postimg.cc/Pr4GV6wH/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-204.gif
gatorcane wrote:The entire 18Z GFS track shifted to the right quite a bit this run, and while it landfalls in the panhandle (at almost 200 hours which is still far out, plenty of shifting to still happen), that hook to the right is definitely something to keep an eye on because this could end up easily being a storm that hits the west coast of Florida from the Central Gulf on an ENE track.
https://i.postimg.cc/G27ftMsv/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh78-216.gif
GCANE wrote:My first instinct, without looking at all the variable and parameters, is that if this starts deep in W Carib and moves thru the Yucatan Channel, this aint going to be no strong TS or weak Cat1. Need to see the details in the next day on how GFS forecasts the environment for it to develop.
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