Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[jlauderdal]

Yes.. appears to be a cat 1

Which way is it moving ?

https://i.postimg.cc/8cbq7mkx/BBB.gif

I missed the mountains in the I-4 corridor causing the system to bounce.

If I was King for a day, I would start sandbag distribution in Florida tomorrow. Big rain isn't unusual, the public will be warned in plenty of time so let's not see Floridians act like they were shocked when this evolves. Just because it hasn't happened before is no reason to be caught off guard, especially after last week's events in the Appalachia. 10 days food and water is a good start, that can be done on a tight budget if needed.

[toad strangler]

Generally, if this did become at least a TS the track is pretty darn anomalous from this general area IF there was genesis this far west. Which is unlikely. Still pretty curious though.

[ColdMiser123]

Both HAFS models for 11E show the main area of development being in the BOC. Probably too aggressive with intensity though.

[SFLcane]

Both HAFS models for 11E show the main area of development being in the BOC. Probably too aggressive with intensity though.

Indeed!

[SFLcane]

[Pasmorade]

https://i.postimg.cc/B6vjtMC1/vvvv.jpg

Could the Gulf be conducive enough for them to regenerate?

[Michele B]

This might be just as bad as a TC just without the wind for the Florida Peninsula.

https://i.postimg.cc/tTNRpP6m/kkk.png

Where I live, I can handle the rain much better than I can the wind!

I'll take it.

[typhoonty]

This might be just as bad as a TC just without the wind for the Florida Peninsula.

https://i.postimg.cc/tTNRpP6m/kkk.png

Where I live, I can handle the rain much better than I can the wind!

I'll take it.

I won't. West central and SWFL is 15-20" above normal for the year and those qpf's are above Debby even for Sarasota. Would NOT be fun.

[SFLcane]

on its way into the BOC..

Initially focused on tropical wave moving into the BoC with a part of the monsoon trough lifting north, but the Caribbean vortex dominating. Now we're looking at vorticity from 11-E

[jlauderdal]

on its way into the BOC..

Initially focused on tropical wave moving into the BoC with a part of the monsoon trough lifting north, but the Caribbean vortex dominating. Now we're looking at vorticity from 11-E

https://i.postimg.cc/1zdHKC3D/bbbb.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/T2g9rcMW/vvv.png

SFLCane isn't going to be happy until a model map can be posted that has something crushing NE Fort Lauderdale.

I'm supposed to go to NYC next weds, that's looking iffy. A good captain stays with his ship

[SFLcane]

on its way into the BOC..

Initially focused on tropical wave moving into the BoC with a part of the monsoon trough lifting north, but the Caribbean vortex dominating. Now we're looking at vorticity from 11-E

https://i.postimg.cc/1zdHKC3D/bbbb.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/T2g9rcMW/vvv.png

SFLCane isn't going to be happy until a model map can be posted that has something crushing NE Fort Lauderdale.

I'm supposed to go to NYC next weds, that's looking iffy. A good captain stays with his ship

Its a complicated setup surely we shall see what happens but either way lots of rain incoming.

[Emmett_Brown]

Next name on the list is Milton. That name seems fitting given the age demographic of West Central Florida… so there could be some destiny playing out.

[MetroMike]

This might be just as bad as a TC just without the wind for the Florida Peninsula.

https://i.postimg.cc/tTNRpP6m/kkk.png

Where I live, I can handle the rain much better than I can the wind!

I'll take it.

You have to take in the big picture in that residents with compromised homes cannot take any heavy rains. Would only compound the issues with junk sitting on curbs and sand issues.
Not your normal summer type of non issues.

[HurricaneBelle]

Next name on the list is Milton. That name seems fitting given the age demographic of West Central Florida… so there could be some destiny playing out.

There's also a Milton, Florida - a city in the NW panhandle.

[ronjon]

12z NAVGEM brings a 960 mb hurricane into the Florida Panhandle. Fortunately it's the worst model there is.

[SFLcane]

18z icon a bit stronger with a 998 storm nearing SFL.

[jlauderdal]

12z NAVGEM brings a 960 mb hurricane into the Florida Panhandle. Fortunately it's the worst model there is.

It might be but its on the same trend as the others which is more intense, if we get that rain setup with a 2+ riding the weakness, that's a big problem.

[jlauderdal]

18z icon a bit stronger with a 998 storm nearing SFL.

How long will 57 go against the ICON?

[Steve]

First spin is right off the central TX coast as some models had progged last weekend. Moisture feed has reached New Orleans where it is currently raining.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

[SFLcane]

18z icon a bit stronger with a 998 storm nearing SFL.

How long will 57 go against the ICON?

Actually he said to watch the icon lol. It’s the fastest model night be still adjusting.