ATL: MILTON - Models

[South Texas Storms]

Models only here please.

[Emmett_Brown]

 https://x.com/collinrlwx/status/1842298743149744180

[ronjon]

18z ICON slightly north of 12z at landfall.

[chaser1]

Oh boy, the models are gonna be fun to watch now that we have a designated Invest programmed into the equation. Btw, satellite floater is already on it . I think I smell a video from Levi in the works.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Two pretty clear solutions on the models - weaker, further south; or stronger and further north.

We'll see what happens. I give GFS a lot of credit after Helene, but hard to ignore the ICON/Euro/CMC solutions too.

[chaser1]

Two pretty clear solutions on the models - weaker, further south; or stronger and further north.

We'll see what happens. I give GFS a lot of credit after Helene, but hard to ignore the ICON/Euro/CMC solutions too.

Which I find rather interesting. My first thought would tend to be "South - Stronger", and "North -Weaker".... simply assuming that the further north, the greater the shear. Clearly that does not seem to be the case

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

12Z EC-AIFS shifts north and is stronger, looks to come in just south of Tampa Bay (Sarasota area). The 06Z was into SW Florida (Fort Myers - Naples). For this storm, stronger looks to mean more to the left (i.e. north) in this case:

[SconnieCane]

This could be a further north version of "Wrong-Way Lenny" of 1999, one of the only other relatively recent examples of an Atlantic tropical cyclone that spent all or nearly all of its life moving from west to east.

[Nimbus]

18Z GFS has just the weak low crossing the Everglades so the alarming earlier consensus for a hurricane isn't cast in stone yet.

[jlauderdal]

12Z EC-AIFS shifts north and is stronger, looks to come in just south of Tampa Bay (Sarasota area). The 06Z was into SW Florida (Fort Myers - Naples). For this storm, stronger looks to mean more to the left (i.e. north) in this case:

Looks to be expanding on approach.

[toad strangler]

18z Euro

[SFLcane]

[chris_fit]

18z Euro

18z EPS similar to 12z.... Many hurricane members.

[AutoPenalti]

I’m still in the consensus that this will probably be just a tad south of the big bend.

[Emmett_Brown]

18z Euro

18z EPS similar to 12z.... Many hurricane members.

I noticed one ensemble member down to 926 mb.

[SFLcane]

00z icon into Naples area..

[ColdMiser123]

GFS has a significant hurricane by Monday evening.

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS strengthening quickly so far, gets to 960mb at 81 hours.

[NDG]

That would be a slap to the face to the west coast of FL if the latest GFS comes to fruition.