2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[weeniepatrol]

Genuinely the weirdest season I've ever tracked

[toad strangler]

Genuinely the weirdest season I've ever tracked

https://i.imgur.com/e1xGUBJ.png

This track would be one for the books

[weeniepatrol]

All metrics above-average or soon to be. ACE will be above-average again tomorrow.

[kevin]

With 92L, Kirk and Leslie there is a possibility that soon we'll (for a little time) have 3 hurricanes in the Atlantic at the same time. The last time this happened was in 2020 when Paulette, Sally and Teddy were at hurricane strength at the same time for a few hours.

I've checked it manually so I don't have 100% certainty, but to make the stat even crazier: this feat has never been achieved in the month of October (at least since 1851). 1878 and 2000 both came quite close (2000 missed it by 1.5 days and 1878 only by half a day).

[Hypercane_Kyle]

With 92L, Kirk and Leslie there is a possibility that soon we'll (for a little time) have 3 hurricanes in the Atlantic at the same time. The last time this happened was in 2020 when Paulette, Sally and Teddy were at hurricane strength at the same time for a few hours.

I've checked it manually so I don't have 100% certainty, but to make the stat even crazier: this feat has never been achieved in the month of October (at least since 1851). 1878 and 2000 both came quite close (2000 missed it by 1.5 days and 1878 only by half a day).

Not surprised 2024 will check that metric off. Climatology is irrelevant at this point; it's clear the conditions in the Atlantic are more like something you'd usually see in late-August/early-September.

[kevin]

With 92L, Kirk and Leslie there is a possibility that soon we'll (for a little time) have 3 hurricanes in the Atlantic at the same time. The last time this happened was in 2020 when Paulette, Sally and Teddy were at hurricane strength at the same time for a few hours.

I've checked it manually so I don't have 100% certainty, but to make the stat even crazier: this feat has never been achieved in the month of October (at least since 1851). 1878 and 2000 both came quite close (2000 missed it by 1.5 days and 1878 only by half a day).

Not surprised 2024 will check that metric off. Climatology is irrelevant at this point; it's clear the conditions in the Atlantic are more like something you'd usually see in late-August/early-September.

Yes it's insane, with the exception of 2023 the average SSTs in the North Atlantic right now are still higher than the season-wide SST peak of any other year since 1981.

[Category5Kaiju]

Between Debby, Helene, and now Milton, this feels like 2004 except it’s exclusively the west coast of Florida that is under the gun.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/HpwdFeB.png

All metrics above-average or soon to be. ACE will be above-average again tomorrow.

One heck of a comeback after the late August-early September shutdown. Looks like we’ll probably end up with 14-17 NS, 9-11 H, 4-5 MH, and 110-135 ACE, depending on how the season post-Milton goes.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1842693952019058839

[weeniepatrol]

Yeah alright. With Milton now a thing I'm tapped out. Season can end now. You've made your point, Atlantic. This is extremely uncomfortable...

[Hammy]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1842693952019058839

Making my 2018 comparison a month and a half ago extremely unsettling

[Beef Stew]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1842693952019058839

There's a chance that we might have three simultaneous hurricanes from these storms as well.

[Hurricane2022]

bro thinks it's september 6 lol

[kevin]

bro thinks it's september 6 lol
https://imageshack.com/i/pmhr6OnHp

There we have our 3 simultaneous hurricanes for the 1st time since Paulette, Sally, Teddy in 2020. And for the first time in October since the database started in 1851.

[WaveBreaking]

Damn. Imagine how much worse this season could’ve been had that dead period never happened. So many of those failed waves were on the right track to affecting land in the West Atlantic if they ever developed.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The Atlantic hurricane season is now above average on pretty much all metrics except for named storm days: https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

9+ hurricanes within one season is the most since 2020 which had a near record breaking 14.

[Steve]

Damn. Imagine how much worse this season could’ve been had that dead period never happened. So many of those failed waves were on the right track to affecting land in the West Atlantic if they ever developed.

Gonna come back to the MJO which in a week will be back in the unfavorable phases we saw during peak season. Only the bias-corrected Australian model (bomm) wants to hint at another go-round last week of the month.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... bomm.shtml

[Ubuntwo]

Damn. Imagine how much worse this season could’ve been had that dead period never happened. So many of those failed waves were on the right track to affecting land in the West Atlantic if they ever developed.

The MJO coming into phase in late Sept/early Oct rather than earlier, plus the high ITCZ position, is what allowed this late flurry of activity. I suspect that it was one or the other for activity. Without the conditions permitting the dead period, the environment may not have been as favorable this time of year.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1842988125708263810


 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1842987587801366582



For the record, the entire October-November 2020 -- one of the most active late seasons on record -- "only" had 6 hurricanes. 2024 just had 5 hurricanes in the last 12 days, although the quality is currently less than 2020's two months (5 out of 6 in 2020 became majors, while 2024 will likely end up with 3 out of 5).

[Stormybajan]

This is the strangest season in recent memory lmao, On fire, in the mud, then on fire again (Thank you Northern ITCZ I guessss) this is definitely has to be a top 5 ACE producing 24 hours in October ...Im sure someone has the stats for specific ACE days!