ATL: MILTON - Models

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#181 Postby shah83 » Sat Oct 05, 2024 1:46 pm

Hurricane models are showing huge rain numbers for the Jacksonville metro area. Add in the likely surge and wind, and...
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#182 Postby kevin » Sat Oct 05, 2024 1:48 pm

12z, Oct 5, hurricane model blend, 92L

--- Model peak intensity ---
HWRF = 923mb/130kt
HMON = 924mb/134kt
HAFS-A = 942mb/108kt
HAFS-B = 918mb/145kt

--- Hurricane model blend ---

As hurricane models also indicate 92L has now intensified into TS Milton. In about 30 hours Milton is forecast to reach hurricane strength. All hurricane models show a MH peak this cycle with even high-end cat 4 and cat 5 peaks. This time HAFS-A is the weakest model with a 108 kt system and strong weakening to a 72 kt hurricane just before landfall. Landfall time is still uncertain with HWRF/HMON showing landfall around +114/+120 and HAFS-A/B already showing landfall around +96/+102. Due to this no landfall timestamp is shown in the blend and the blend is not an accurate estimate for the landfall intensity. Blending the intensity of the 4 models in their respective last frame before landfall results in a landfall blend of 941mb/108kt.

Blend
PEAK: 932 mb @ 90 hrs | 121 kt @ 90 hrs
ACE (0 - 126 hrs) = 15.3
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1005 / 30
06 / 1001 / 42 - TS
12 / 999 / 40
18 / 997 / 42
24 / 991 / 52
30 / 987 / 59
36 / 981 / 65 - C1
42 / 976 / 72
48 / 969 / 75
54 / 965 / 76
60 / 957 / 88 - C2
66 / 946 / 99 - C3
72 / 944 / 99
78 / 941 / 112
84 / 934 / 121 - C4
90 / 932 / 121
96 / 937 / 107
102 / 946 / 88
108 / 953 / 98
114 / 962 / 84
120 / 974 / 76
126 / 979 / 72

--- Previous blend analyses ---

06z, Oct 5: 940 mb / 108 kt
12z, Oct 5: 932 mb / 121 kt
Last edited by kevin on Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#183 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 05, 2024 1:50 pm

Image

12z HWRF shifted S from 06z… Wow directly into TB…
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#184 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:03 pm

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/TPSSqV5p/IMG-0520.jpg [/url]

12z HWRF shifted S from 06z… Wow directly into TB…


I realize it's unlikely to come to pass, but between the location and strength, that truly would be a doomsday scenario.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#185 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:05 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/TPSSqV5p/IMG-0520.jpg [/url]

12z HWRF shifted S from 06z… Wow directly into TB…


I realize it's unlikely to come to pass, but between the location and strength, that truly would be a doomsday scenario.


HMON is worse for surge up the bay, but neither are good. HWRF Makes up for it with eyewall.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#186 Postby SootyTern » Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:08 pm

ronjon wrote:Amazing how quickly forecasts on intensity can change when just a few days ago wxman57 was doubting this system would be more than a frontal low. GFS and now the hurricane models (all that performed well on intensity with Helene) now pointing toward another major hurricane striking the west coast of Florida. This just makes me sick to my stomach here on the western side of the state.


Seriously. The Gulf thing was a lemon when I last looked at the computer this morning; spent a few hours out and about and come back to a named storm that could be a nasty hit within 5 days. Wherever it hits, none of y'all need it. We'll see how it plays out, but y'all are in my thoughts and I am hoping for the best!
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#187 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:10 pm

Strongest run of ensembles of Euro yet.

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#188 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:17 pm

18z earlies, slight shift left (north), lot's of I-4 riders here.
Image
Last edited by BobHarlem on Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#189 Postby jhpigott » Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:Strongest run of ensembles of Euro yet.

https://i.imgur.com/6ZhD4nN.jpeg


I know we've talked about the stronger modeled storms are further north and weaker south, but it also looks like speed of the system (per the Euro ensembles) will play a role in N vs. S. impacts. Faster looks north. Slower looks more south.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#190 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:20 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#191 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:34 pm

I could be wrong but I think a slightly faster system (making landfall Wednesday morning before sunrise) could be stronger, as it might not have much of an opportunity to weaken due to dry air/strong shear.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#192 Postby Steve » Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:45 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:I could be wrong but I think a slightly faster system (making landfall Wednesday morning before sunrise) could be stronger, as it might not have much of an opportunity to weaken due to dry air/strong shear.


Makes sense that something hitting earlier could be stronger as opposed to one that’s fading and interacting. The thing with shear though is the gradient can be strong where the airmasses meet which is likely to mean strong gusts farther north even if the right front quadrant looks more to be the SE portion of the system (technically could be ENE to ESE portion if the angle is right.

Early guidance 18z out and it’s honing in.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

Early cycle intensity:

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#193 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:51 pm

Close up look at latest 18z early tropical models. Expect a shift north over and narrowing of the cone by the next NHC advisory.
My heart aches for Tampa Bay.

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#194 Postby Spacecoast » Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:52 pm

TVCN Trending North...

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#195 Postby psyclone » Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:53 pm

NDG wrote:Close up look at latest 18z early tropical models. Expect a shift north over and narrowing of the cone by the next NHC advisory.
My heart aches for Tampa Bay.

https://i.imgur.com/GrRXWe2.jpeg


I think there's more than 1 line bisecting my living room on that map.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#196 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:54 pm

There is a large amount of real estate ahead of this thing. There will be more shifts.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#197 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Oct 05, 2024 2:56 pm

NDG wrote:Close up look at latest 18z early tropical models. Expect a shift north over and narrowing of the cone by the next NHC advisory.
My heart aches for Tampa Bay.

https://i.imgur.com/GrRXWe2.jpeg


The cone size is not affected by models if I’m not mistaken
It is based on average error
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#198 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 05, 2024 3:02 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
NDG wrote:Close up look at latest 18z early tropical models. Expect a shift north over and narrowing of the cone by the next NHC advisory.
My heart aches for Tampa Bay.

https://i.imgur.com/GrRXWe2.jpeg


The cone size is not affected by models if I’m not mistaken
It is based on average error


True story. The cone has nothing to do with the confidence in forecast. It’s made up with circles of average margin of error over periods of time.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#199 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 05, 2024 3:06 pm

.
Last edited by toad strangler on Sat Oct 05, 2024 3:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#200 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 05, 2024 3:06 pm

BobHarlem wrote:18z earlies, slight shift left (north), lot's of I-4 riders here.
https://i.imgur.com/BIJ92Sv.png


I'm beginning to wonder about the prospect for this continual northward shift to continue all the way to Cedar Key.
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