ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Poonwalker
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#821 Postby Poonwalker » Sun Oct 06, 2024 3:50 pm

Abdullah wrote:What situations are best and worst for storm surge in Tampa Bay? Is it worse if the storm comes in north, on Tampa, or to its south?

Way worse with a north landing. It’s the SW winds that drive surge.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#822 Postby Flwxguy86 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 3:51 pm

Abdullah wrote:What situations are best and worst for storm surge in Tampa Bay? Is it worse if the storm comes in north, on Tampa, or to its south?

Anything south of Tampa bay will bring significatly less surge than if it makes landfall in or north of Tampa bay. Best case scenario for Tampa is a landfall in sarasota and to the south. Northern it would have to be up near cedar key for the surge to not be a serious issue in the bay.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#823 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Oct 06, 2024 3:52 pm

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#824 Postby StormPyrate » Sun Oct 06, 2024 3:52 pm

Flwxguy86 wrote:
Abdullah wrote:What situations are best and worst for storm surge in Tampa Bay? Is it worse if the storm comes in north, on Tampa, or to its south?

Anything south of Tampa bay will bring significatly less surge than if it makes landfall in or north of Tampa bay. Best case scenario for Tampa is a landfall in sarasota and to the south. Northern it would have to be up near cedar key for the surge to not be a serious issue in the bay.

for sure yep, but winds are north loaded on this so far
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#825 Postby canebeard » Sun Oct 06, 2024 3:54 pm

Flwxguy86 wrote:
I have heard anything like that. Also anyone posting the CLIPER model seem dubious.

Isn't the cliper model actually designed for winter weather modeling and not so much tropical? I don't think I'd put much stock in it personally. Same thing with the GRAF model, It's decent in a very short term outlook but this far out, tends to be very wrong.


Clipper = Climatology + Persistence . A Jr high school kid could process this model methodology: with just the current area/time of year average motions combined with predicting same motion in near future to be same as the recent past motion. Anyway, I think it was just the (or one of) the first hurricane "models", and each run was processed on a large abacus.
Last edited by canebeard on Sun Oct 06, 2024 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#826 Postby Travorum » Sun Oct 06, 2024 3:55 pm

Discussion on track changes at the 5pm advisory:
The NHC forecast is a bit south of the previous one through 48 hours,
following the trend of the guidance at that time, and the government
of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the northern
coast of Yucatan. Later on, the guidance is similar to, or slightly
north of the last cycle, and very little change is made to the
forecast near Florida
.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#827 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 06, 2024 3:56 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

Wow that’s a huge jump from last advisory.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#828 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 3:57 pm

Last edited by Keldeo1997 on Sun Oct 06, 2024 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#829 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 06, 2024 3:58 pm

Shouldn't there be high altitude jet samplings happening right now...
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#830 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 06, 2024 3:59 pm

Sanibel wrote:Shouldn't there be high altitude jet samplings happening right now...

There’s one active right now. It’s at the very bottom of Tropical Tidbits’ Aircraft Recon page.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#831 Postby Michele B » Sun Oct 06, 2024 4:01 pm

norva13x wrote:And I literally just got a new roof this year too :cry:


I got a new roof four months before Charley and it was just fine.

You will be fine!
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#832 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Oct 06, 2024 4:03 pm

aspen wrote:Looking pretty ragged all of a sudden, maybe it gulped a bit of dry air.

That raggedness will be VERY temporary and short-lived if that's the case and then the monster will take off again.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#833 Postby LandoWill » Sun Oct 06, 2024 4:06 pm

5pm they actually didn't move the track much, if anything a little more south slightly
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#834 Postby Michele B » Sun Oct 06, 2024 4:08 pm

johngaltfla wrote:Fire Chief Paul Dezzi urges Longboat Key residents to “leave as soon as you can”

https://www.mysuncoast.com/2024/10/06/f ... n-you-can/

via WWSB, Sarasota


Isn't Longboat Key one of the places that had significant damage from Helene? I wouldn't think many people would have been back at their Longboat Key homes?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#835 Postby psyclone » Sun Oct 06, 2024 4:09 pm

I'm surprised they didn't issue watches for parts of Florida at the 5pm advisory. Track looks unchanged. Wind probs continue to escalate. Venice remains the board leader with a 35% chance of hurricane force winds and Tampa takes the silver at 31%....both are increases over the prior advisory..
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#836 Postby underthwx » Sun Oct 06, 2024 4:10 pm

The NHC 4 pm update is not good news....Milton's intensity predictions are significantly higher....and according to the NHC....may very likely be higher later on.....this cyclone has a very real potential to be a category 5 cyclone....absolutely a dangerous situation unfolding across Florida....and my heart is heavy for yall....

From NHC 4pm update...

The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid
intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within
light shear and over very deep warm waters. Intensity guidance is
about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with
almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in
the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is
raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus
model and still could be too low. Later on, vertical wind shear is
forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and
some weakening is anticipated. However, the regional hurricane
models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are
expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very
dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing
confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards
will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the
middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this
system and listen to local officials.
Last edited by underthwx on Sun Oct 06, 2024 4:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#837 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Oct 06, 2024 4:11 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
aspen wrote:Looking pretty ragged all of a sudden, maybe it gulped a bit of dry air.

That raggedness will be VERY temporary and short-lived if that's the case and then the monster will take off again.

That huge burst wrapping around the southeast side should take care of any dry air intrusions that occurred earlier when it was starting to wrap up its core. Suspect the pressure has still been dropping despite the leveling off in appearance over the past couple of hours
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#838 Postby Abdullah » Sun Oct 06, 2024 4:11 pm

First watches will surely come about at the 11 PM advisory or maybe the 8 AM intermediate advisory.

The earliest probable wind speeds reach Florida just after 8 PM Tuesday, and watches are for 48 hours out.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#839 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Oct 06, 2024 4:12 pm

I'm quite shocked that the weather channel doesn't have 24 hour coverage yet. They are still playing dumb shows like "highway thru hell" and other shows all day.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#840 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Oct 06, 2024 4:15 pm

underthwx wrote:The NHC 4 pm update is not good news....Milton's intensity predictions are significantly higher....and according to the NHC....may very likely be higher later on.....this cyclone has a very real potential to be a category 5 cyclone....absolutely a dangerous situation unfolding across Florida....and my heart is heavy for yall....



I'm glad that the NHC didn't increase the predicated landfall wind speed at least, probably because of the strong shear they are talking about. Still dangerous hurricane no matter what.
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