ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

It just one huge blob of pink intense convection right now.

[ConvergenceZone]

Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Same here, probably keep it a cat 1 at 11pm with 90mph but we will wake up to a CAT 2. These tiny storms can ramp up fast. They can also fall apart fast (fingers crossed).

The bad news is that by the time it encounters shear in a couple of days, the NHC thinks that the hurricane will grow quite large. It would be better if the shear was now when it's small, but that's obviously not going to happen.

[eastcoastFL]

Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Same here, probably keep it a cat 1 at 11pm with 90mph but we will wake up to a CAT 2. These tiny storms can ramp up fast. They can also fall apart fast (fingers crossed).

The bad news is that by the time it encounters shear in a couple of days, the NHC thinks that the hurricane will grow quite large. It would be better if the shear was now when it's small, but that's obviously not going to happen.

I agree. My biggest concern is a major rain event. It’s been pouring non stop all weekend here and if Milton decides to dump a foot of rain this way I’m in trouble.

[ElectricStorm]

AF drop supports 977mb, another 1mb drop from the last one just 10 minutes before

[chaser1]

Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.

Sounds reasonable enough. Care to up the ante ? How 'bout Cat 4 in 24 hr's (11:00pm tomm. night)?

[Abdullah]

Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.

The National Hurricane Center's forecast discussion at 5 PM predicted the same thing:

105 MPH Cat 2 at 2 AM Monday
125 MPH Cat 3 at 2 PM Monday

Honestly, looking at recon, I feel like the storm is underperforming compared to where the NHC forecast states it should be.
I don't think it can make it to 105 MPH in just 3 and a half hours.

The highest SFMR we have rn is 71 kts / 82 mph, and the highest dropsonde surface wind recorded seems to be 58 kts / 67 mph this most recent cycle. Maybe they're not dropping it in the eyewall or something. The recorded pressures still seem to be really low though, 975 mbar extrapolated and 978 mbar observed by dropsonde.

Is there something I'm missing in interpreting this data? I'm using tropicalatlantic.com

https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... oduct=hdob
https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... duct=sonde

[USTropics]

Expansion of CDO with radial pattern on the edges is a clear sign Milton is undergoing a period of intensification. It appears we have two new hot towers as well forming:

[psyclone]

I wonder if the NHC ticks the track back north at 11 and we end tonight where we began the day...right over the bay...

[eastcoastFL]

Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.

The National Hurricane Center's forecast discussion at 5 PM predicted the same thing:

105 MPH Cat 2 at 2 AM Monday
125 MPH Cat 3 at 2 PM Monday

Honestly, looking at recon, I feel like the storm is underperforming.
I don't think it can make it to 105 MPH in just 3 and a half hours.

The highest SFMR we have rn is 71 kts / 82 mph, and the highest dropsonde surface wind recorded seems to be 58 kts / 67 mph this most recent cycle. Maybe they're not dropping it in the eyewall or something. The recorded pressures still seem to be really low though, 975 mbar extrapolated and 978 mbar observed by dropsonde.

Is there something I'm missing in interpreting this data? I'm using tropicalatlantic.com

https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... oduct=hdob
https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... duct=sonde

If the pressure continues to drop and structure gets completed it can bomb out real fast. So we will see.

[eastcoastFL]

I wonder if the NHC ticks the track back north at 11 and we end tonight where we began the day...right over the bay...

That’s exactly what I’d expect. What an interesting weekend with Milton.

[bob rulz]

Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.

The National Hurricane Center's forecast discussion at 5 PM predicted the same thing:

105 MPH Cat 2 at 2 AM Monday
125 MPH Cat 3 at 2 PM Monday

Honestly, looking at recon, I feel like the storm is underperforming.
I don't think it can make it to 105 MPH in just 3 and a half hours.

The highest SFMR we have rn is 71 kts / 82 mph, and the highest dropsonde surface wind recorded seems to be 58 kts / 67 mph this most recent cycle. Maybe they're not dropping it in the eyewall or something. The recorded pressures still seem to be really low though, 975 mbar extrapolated and 978 mbar observed by dropsonde.

Is there something I'm missing in interpreting this data? I'm using tropicalatlantic.com

https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... oduct=hdob
https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... duct=sonde

Underperforming compared to what?

[Fancy1002]

Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.

Sounds reasonable enough. Care to up the ante ? How 'bout Cat 4 in 24 hr's (11:00pm tomm. night)?

I’ll throw in a bet for cat five by midnight.

[ElectricStorm]

Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.

The National Hurricane Center's forecast discussion at 5 PM predicted the same thing:

105 MPH Cat 2 at 2 AM Monday
125 MPH Cat 3 at 2 PM Monday

Honestly, looking at recon, I feel like the storm is underperforming.
I don't think it can make it to 105 MPH in just 3 and a half hours.

The highest SFMR we have rn is 71 kts / 82 mph, and the highest dropsonde surface wind recorded seems to be 58 kts / 67 mph this most recent cycle. Maybe they're not dropping it in the eyewall or something. The recorded pressures still seem to be really low though, 975 mbar extrapolated and 978 mbar observed by dropsonde.

Is there something I'm missing in interpreting this data? I'm using tropicalatlantic.com

https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... oduct=hdob
https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... duct=sonde

A lot of times the winds will lag behind pressure falls and catch up later so if we continue to see drops in pressure, then winds increasing to Cat 2 range in a few hours seems very doable

[StPeteMike]

Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.

Sounds reasonable enough. Care to up the ante ? How 'bout Cat 4 in 24 hr's (11:00pm tomm. night)?

Ugh, having it almost a day before the models getting to Cat 4 would not look good. But Mother Nature doesn’t care what looks good or not, she’ll do whatever she wants to do. I would not wager against it.

I’ll also jump on that NHC bumps back north a little.

[chaser1]

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.

The National Hurricane Center's forecast discussion at 5 PM predicted the same thing:

105 MPH Cat 2 at 2 AM Monday
125 MPH Cat 3 at 2 PM Monday

Honestly, looking at recon, I feel like the storm is underperforming.
I don't think it can make it to 105 MPH in just 3 and a half hours.

The highest SFMR we have rn is 71 kts / 82 mph, and the highest dropsonde surface wind recorded seems to be 58 kts / 67 mph this most recent cycle. Maybe they're not dropping it in the eyewall or something. The recorded pressures still seem to be really low though, 975 mbar extrapolated and 978 mbar observed by dropsonde.

Is there something I'm missing in interpreting this data? I'm using tropicalatlantic.com

https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... oduct=hdob
https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... duct=sonde

Underperforming compared to what?

A tornado

[Abdullah]

They moved the track two miles to the north, landfall between Siesta Key and Lido Key outside Sarasota.

Overall the more that they keep it overall in the same place, all that means is they're getting more and more confident it'll hit in that region

[LandoWill]

11pm looks like they kept same landfall, but are still hedging it East/South east overall, their inland plots are much further south and east than before, i mean pronounced you can see that on https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[LandoWill]

They moved the track two miles to the north, landfall between Siesta Key and Lido Key outside Sarasota.

Overall the more that they keep it overall in the same place, all that means is they're getting more and more confident it'll hit in that region

i think you meant south, it wasn't moved north, and they think it's going to go more east than north once it's inland. This is a great site https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions you can see previous plot line vs newest line

[StPeteMike]

I’ll be staying up for the 0z model runs. I am surprised NHC didn’t go further north, maybe they’re seeing something we aren’t. But if the 0z GFS and Euro (add ICON in as well) continue to see the northern side of the cone, it would be hard to not see a track bumped close to the mouth of the Tampa Bay.

[Teban54]

I’ll be staying up for the 0z model runs. I am surprised NHC didn’t go further north, maybe they’re seeing something we aren’t. But if the 0z GFS and Euro (add ICON in as well) continue to see the northern side of the cone, it would be hard to not see a track bumped close to the mouth of the Tampa Bay.

perhaps waiting for more runs to establish a trend. Similar questions were also raised when models were briefly shifting south earlier today, only for 12z runs to bounce back.