ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1001 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:35 pm

It just one huge blob of pink intense convection right now.



Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1002 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:36 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg


Same here, probably keep it a cat 1 at 11pm with 90mph but we will wake up to a CAT 2. These tiny storms can ramp up fast. They can also fall apart fast (fingers crossed).


The bad news is that by the time it encounters shear in a couple of days, the NHC thinks that the hurricane will grow quite large. It would be better if the shear was now when it's small, but that's obviously not going to happen.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1003 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:38 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg


Same here, probably keep it a cat 1 at 11pm with 90mph but we will wake up to a CAT 2. These tiny storms can ramp up fast. They can also fall apart fast (fingers crossed).


The bad news is that by the time it encounters shear in a couple of days, the NHC thinks that the hurricane will grow quite large. It would be better if the shear was now when it's small, but that's obviously not going to happen.


I agree. My biggest concern is a major rain event. It’s been pouring non stop all weekend here and if Milton decides to dump a foot of rain this way I’m in trouble.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1004 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:39 pm

AF drop supports 977mb, another 1mb drop from the last one just 10 minutes before
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1005 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:40 pm

StPeteMike wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.


Sounds reasonable enough. Care to up the ante :lol: ? How 'bout Cat 4 in 24 hr's (11:00pm tomm. night)?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1006 Postby Abdullah » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:41 pm

StPeteMike wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.


The National Hurricane Center's forecast discussion at 5 PM predicted the same thing:

105 MPH Cat 2 at 2 AM Monday
125 MPH Cat 3 at 2 PM Monday

Honestly, looking at recon, I feel like the storm is underperforming compared to where the NHC forecast states it should be.
I don't think it can make it to 105 MPH in just 3 and a half hours.

The highest SFMR we have rn is 71 kts / 82 mph, and the highest dropsonde surface wind recorded seems to be 58 kts / 67 mph this most recent cycle. Maybe they're not dropping it in the eyewall or something. The recorded pressures still seem to be really low though, 975 mbar extrapolated and 978 mbar observed by dropsonde.

Is there something I'm missing in interpreting this data? I'm using tropicalatlantic.com

https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... oduct=hdob
https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... duct=sonde
Last edited by Abdullah on Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1007 Postby USTropics » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:41 pm

Expansion of CDO with radial pattern on the edges is a clear sign Milton is undergoing a period of intensification. It appears we have two new hot towers as well forming:
Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1008 Postby psyclone » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:42 pm

I wonder if the NHC ticks the track back north at 11 and we end tonight where we began the day...right over the bay...
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1009 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:43 pm

Abdullah wrote:
StPeteMike wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.


The National Hurricane Center's forecast discussion at 5 PM predicted the same thing:

105 MPH Cat 2 at 2 AM Monday
125 MPH Cat 3 at 2 PM Monday

Honestly, looking at recon, I feel like the storm is underperforming.
I don't think it can make it to 105 MPH in just 3 and a half hours.

The highest SFMR we have rn is 71 kts / 82 mph, and the highest dropsonde surface wind recorded seems to be 58 kts / 67 mph this most recent cycle. Maybe they're not dropping it in the eyewall or something. The recorded pressures still seem to be really low though, 975 mbar extrapolated and 978 mbar observed by dropsonde.

Is there something I'm missing in interpreting this data? I'm using tropicalatlantic.com

https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... oduct=hdob
https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... duct=sonde


If the pressure continues to drop and structure gets completed it can bomb out real fast. So we will see.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1010 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:44 pm

psyclone wrote:I wonder if the NHC ticks the track back north at 11 and we end tonight where we began the day...right over the bay...


That’s exactly what I’d expect. What an interesting weekend with Milton.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1011 Postby bob rulz » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:45 pm

Abdullah wrote:
StPeteMike wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.


The National Hurricane Center's forecast discussion at 5 PM predicted the same thing:

105 MPH Cat 2 at 2 AM Monday
125 MPH Cat 3 at 2 PM Monday

Honestly, looking at recon, I feel like the storm is underperforming.
I don't think it can make it to 105 MPH in just 3 and a half hours.

The highest SFMR we have rn is 71 kts / 82 mph, and the highest dropsonde surface wind recorded seems to be 58 kts / 67 mph this most recent cycle. Maybe they're not dropping it in the eyewall or something. The recorded pressures still seem to be really low though, 975 mbar extrapolated and 978 mbar observed by dropsonde.

Is there something I'm missing in interpreting this data? I'm using tropicalatlantic.com

https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... oduct=hdob
https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... duct=sonde


Underperforming compared to what?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1012 Postby Fancy1002 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:45 pm

chaser1 wrote:
StPeteMike wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.


Sounds reasonable enough. Care to up the ante :lol: ? How 'bout Cat 4 in 24 hr's (11:00pm tomm. night)?

I’ll throw in a bet for cat five by midnight.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1013 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:47 pm

Abdullah wrote:
StPeteMike wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.


The National Hurricane Center's forecast discussion at 5 PM predicted the same thing:

105 MPH Cat 2 at 2 AM Monday
125 MPH Cat 3 at 2 PM Monday

Honestly, looking at recon, I feel like the storm is underperforming.
I don't think it can make it to 105 MPH in just 3 and a half hours.

The highest SFMR we have rn is 71 kts / 82 mph, and the highest dropsonde surface wind recorded seems to be 58 kts / 67 mph this most recent cycle. Maybe they're not dropping it in the eyewall or something. The recorded pressures still seem to be really low though, 975 mbar extrapolated and 978 mbar observed by dropsonde.

Is there something I'm missing in interpreting this data? I'm using tropicalatlantic.com

https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... oduct=hdob
https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... duct=sonde

A lot of times the winds will lag behind pressure falls and catch up later so if we continue to see drops in pressure, then winds increasing to Cat 2 range in a few hours seems very doable
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1014 Postby StPeteMike » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:49 pm

chaser1 wrote:
StPeteMike wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.


Sounds reasonable enough. Care to up the ante :lol: ? How 'bout Cat 4 in 24 hr's (11:00pm tomm. night)?

Ugh, having it almost a day before the models getting to Cat 4 would not look good. But Mother Nature doesn’t care what looks good or not, she’ll do whatever she wants to do. I would not wager against it.

I’ll also jump on that NHC bumps back north a little.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1015 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:52 pm

bob rulz wrote:
Abdullah wrote:
StPeteMike wrote:Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.


The National Hurricane Center's forecast discussion at 5 PM predicted the same thing:

105 MPH Cat 2 at 2 AM Monday
125 MPH Cat 3 at 2 PM Monday

Honestly, looking at recon, I feel like the storm is underperforming.
I don't think it can make it to 105 MPH in just 3 and a half hours.

The highest SFMR we have rn is 71 kts / 82 mph, and the highest dropsonde surface wind recorded seems to be 58 kts / 67 mph this most recent cycle. Maybe they're not dropping it in the eyewall or something. The recorded pressures still seem to be really low though, 975 mbar extrapolated and 978 mbar observed by dropsonde.

Is there something I'm missing in interpreting this data? I'm using tropicalatlantic.com

https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... oduct=hdob
https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... duct=sonde


Underperforming compared to what?


A tornado :A:
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1016 Postby Abdullah » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:52 pm

They moved the track two miles to the north, landfall between Siesta Key and Lido Key outside Sarasota.

Overall the more that they keep it overall in the same place, all that means is they're getting more and more confident it'll hit in that region
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1017 Postby LandoWill » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:55 pm

11pm looks like they kept same landfall, but are still hedging it East/South east overall, their inland plots are much further south and east than before, i mean pronounced you can see that on https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1018 Postby LandoWill » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:58 pm

Abdullah wrote:They moved the track two miles to the north, landfall between Siesta Key and Lido Key outside Sarasota.

Overall the more that they keep it overall in the same place, all that means is they're getting more and more confident it'll hit in that region

i think you meant south, it wasn't moved north, and they think it's going to go more east than north once it's inland. This is a great site https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions you can see previous plot line vs newest line
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1019 Postby StPeteMike » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:58 pm

I’ll be staying up for the 0z model runs. I am surprised NHC didn’t go further north, maybe they’re seeing something we aren’t. But if the 0z GFS and Euro (add ICON in as well) continue to see the northern side of the cone, it would be hard to not see a track bumped close to the mouth of the Tampa Bay.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1020 Postby Teban54 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:01 pm

StPeteMike wrote:I’ll be staying up for the 0z model runs. I am surprised NHC didn’t go further north, maybe they’re seeing something we aren’t. But if the 0z GFS and Euro (add ICON in as well) continue to see the northern side of the cone, it would be hard to not see a track bumped close to the mouth of the Tampa Bay.

perhaps waiting for more runs to establish a trend. Similar questions were also raised when models were briefly shifting south earlier today, only for 12z runs to bounce back.
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