ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1601 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:48 am

Yup, Milton's a Category 5 now.

Gauddamm.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1602 Postby Sunnydays » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:48 am

Unbelievable, Thats enough Milton, we see you.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1603 Postby Beef Stew » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:48 am

Cue special advisory in 3...2...1...
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1604 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:49 am

People went to bed with a cat 1. They are waking up to a cat 5 now. Unbelievable. And Milton isnt done by any means.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1605 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:49 am

Someone please give Milton his stapler back so we can stop this.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1606 Postby Steve » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:49 am

bunkhouse wrote:Amateur here. Could someone give me insight into the best guess of range of possible conditions/intensity on the east coast around Cape Canaveral? I have relatives that live just south of there and 2 miles inland and trying to decide how strong Milton will be in that area.


12z models are starting to run, and you'll know more once they have completed. ICON 12z exits Florida just south of Cape Canaveral in the 980's, so you would assume sustained TS conditions and certainly out over the river and at the coast the winds will be stronger. Local NWS and emergency offices will note evacuation zones as orders are issued. But overall they would probably get in a range of 4-8" of rain and you'd think at least gusts into the 60's there. NHC said rain will be more north of the center.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1607 Postby zal0phus » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:49 am

Wowwwww Milton you must want attention so bad
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1608 Postby Soluna16 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:49 am

I actually don't even know what to say.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1609 Postby Abdullah » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:50 am

The dropsonde definitely will report something in the 920s range of mbar.

Getting below 925 mbar would mean it becomes the most intense storm in the Atlantic basin since Dorian 2019, which bottomed out at 910 mbar.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1610 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:50 am

Those 200mph sfmr have to be errors.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1611 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:50 am

Highteeld wrote:Wouldn't be surprised to see this storm hit 900 mb. Pinhole eye makes rapid deepening possible.


Even with all of the tools at NHC disposal, we are watching live-time storm track motion and intensification which has seemed to defy model guidance. Time to throw all tools on the table.

The NAM 12km 12Z forecast shows a much slower, about 100 miles offshore Tampa at 60 hr (0Z Thurs) with Milton at 906 mb.
Given the broader value for NAM as it applies to analysis and forecasting CONUS weather patterns and conditions, I am less inclined to pay much attention to tropical related specifics. It may however provide some added insight regarding the timing progression or changes to Continental trough depth, upper level shear and moisture conditions as is presently forecast to occur by reliable hurricane models when Milton begins its approach to Florida.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1612 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:50 am

And is beyond crazy that those Cat 5 winds are on the SW quadrant!!!
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1613 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:50 am

woke up around 6 AM this morning and it was only a C2. Now we have C5 support. Absurd
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1614 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:50 am

Est. Sfc. Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Est. Red. Factor

158.2 knots (~ 182.0 mph)
Category Five Hurricane
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1615 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:50 am

Have we ever even seen a 200mph SFMR in the Atlantic basin?? I know it’s overcooked but wow.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1616 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:50 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:People went to bed with a cat 1. They are waking up to a cat 5 now. Unbelievable. And Milton isnt done by any means.


Yeah that is me. Expected possibly a Cat 3 waking up but it's already a 5 now...

Milton will now smash Beryl's distinction of being the strongest storm of this season.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1617 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:51 am

tropicwatch wrote:Those 200mph sfmr have to be errors.

Rain-tampered
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1618 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:51 am

Milton may end up being one of the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic ever
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1619 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:52 am

Not sure what to write. Just a historic morning.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#1620 Postby Zonacane » Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:52 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Have we ever even seen a 200mph SFMR in the Atlantic basin?? I know it’s overcooked but wow.

Irma, Dorian, and Maria
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