ATL: MILTON - Models

[tolakram]

The ensembles will continue to show more south as any northerly solutions run into the front. Every storm in this situation seems to have an ensemble discussion like this, but I'm not sure how valuable it is.

[skillz305]

https://i.postimg.cc/CxpJ9Ntj/vvvv.png

What's the trend with these?

Definitely south…

[BobHarlem]

12z icon, pretty much the same as 6z, maybe a hairline slightly left/north into the bay rather than Bradenton, exits in Atlantic by Cocoa Beach.

[NDG]

And just like that the 12z ICON quiets the 06z Euro ensembles fans. If memory serves me correct they always seem to be biased left or right during a gulf coast landfall.
Will go into archives to verify.

[kevin]

12z ICON almost identical to 06z ICON, but a bit stronger than maybe a tiny bit further north (but we're talking about a few miles at most).

[NDG]

12z ICON almost identical to 06z ICON, but a bit stronger than maybe a tiny bit further north (but we're talking about a few miles at most).

Earlier 06z run never had it going up Tampa Bay.

[SFLcane]

And just like that the 12z ICON quiets the 06z Euro ensembles fans. If memory serves me correct they always seem to be biased left or right during a gulf coast landfall.
Will go into archives to verify.

https://i.imgur.com/3d51rPa.gif

Icon quiets the 06z euro fans? Icon is not a product the NHC uses and yes i dont think the nhc is putting to much stock on any ensembles at the moment.

This is about the only thing left to really watch if i was a betting man i would say this comes in south of tampa always tricky at this angle.

NHC 11am discussion...

However, it is critical to remember that even at 36-48 hours away, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if the hurricane wobbles as it approaches the coast.

[NDG]

Forecasted wind gusts at landfall by 12z ICON.

[CycloysisNegative]

12z ICON is ~15mi south of bringing catastrophic storm surge into Pinellas/Tampa. Wobble watching will be gut wrenching.

[NDG]

And just like that the 12z ICON quiets the 06z Euro ensembles fans. If memory serves me correct they always seem to be biased left or right during a gulf coast landfall.
Will go into archives to verify.

https://i.imgur.com/3d51rPa.gif

Icon quites the 06z euro fans? Icon is not a product the NHC uses and yes i dont think the nhc is putting to much stock on any ensembles at the moment.

This is about the only thing left to really watch if i was a betting man i would say this comes in south of tampa always tricky at this angle.

NHC 11am discussion...

However, it is critical to remember that even at 36-48 hours away, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if the hurricane wobbles as it approaches the coast.

My point was that many thought, and including on X, that the 06z Euro ensembles was the start of trend to the south by the rest of the models.
ICON usually sniffs that pretty well, but it didn't.

[kevin]

12z GFS slightly east of 06z in the first 24 hours.

[tolakram]

GFS trend

[kevin]

12z GFS landfall at or just north of Bradenton. A hair south of 06z, but we're talking a difference of pixels. Not caving to the Euro so far.

[NDG]

12z GFS is slightly weaker so it is slightly south of previous 06z run.

[Mouton]

Id be careful to not put much stock into model paths that show a west due east path for a storm of this strength landfall. I don't recall any storm doing that.

The last few sat images do show a slight jog south east but I doubt that lasts. It could if it continues for a while, bring Milt a tad south of TBay.

Looking ahead, the water vapor shows a definite line going WSW to ENE but over the past few runs that line seems to be trending a tad north on the east edge of the view.

On a separate idea, gas is going to become hard to find.

[tolakram]

trend

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS very similar to 6z, on entry and exit. Bay/Bradenton landfall, over Orlando then to Titusville/Playalinda beach exit. TIming the same.

[Mike33534]

Wobble watching will be huge if it's coming into either bradenton or st pete. But, model trends south have been ongoing for over 24 hours now. I wouldn't be least bit surprised if it goes venice or port charlotte.

[BobHarlem]

Wobble watching will be huge if it's coming into either bradenton or st pete. But, model trends south have been ongoing for over 24 hours now. I wouldn't be least bit surprised if it goes venice or port charlotte.

Yes, this will likely be the most intense and contentious wobble watching session ever because of Tampa, just wait until it's in TPA radar range. Only this time everyone loses . That said the Icon and UK were already pointing to Pt. Charlotte this far out for Ian, they aren't doing that here.

[NDG]

Close up look at 12z GFS.