ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Hurricane wind odds in Tampa fell to 37% (still high but a big drop) while hurricane wind odds in Venice rose to an astounding 67%. My goodness brace for impact down that way...!

As the storm gets closer the %’s will rise accordingly

Or decline

[Stormgodess]

We just had an X1.8 earth facing flare with a full halo CME....

For those keeping up with that type of thing

[Knight85]

Hurricane wind odds in Tampa fell to 37% (still high but a big drop) while hurricane wind odds in Venice rose to an astounding 67%. My goodness brace for impact down that way...!

As the storm gets closer the %’s will rise accordingly

Or fall.
Those percentages are based on current track. IF it were to continue on the NHC track, those odds will fall to zero, as the wind field in this storm is stunningly small.
From the National Weather Service's own predictions, it shows North Pinellas barely getting above tropical storm sustained, pretty similar to what Helene brought. That's pretty stunning, and is honestly creating some cognitive dissonance compared to how powerful this storm is at its core. But the math is the math.

Obviously, all of that changes with a minor tweak in path.

[Travorum]

There's also impressive vertical mixing on the NOAA recon profile charts:

Pass 1, NE-SW (2141z-2225z):



Pass 2, SE-NW (2248z-2336z):



Pass 3, W-E (2355z-0046z)



Pass 4, E-WNW (0050z-0144z)

[USTropics]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/xecDWYh.gif

What is the blob that's been in front of Milton this whole time, and what effect does it have on the storm besides dropping plenty of rain prior to landfall?

I was wondering the same thing. Looks like another area of low pressure just ahead. It’s been there for a while now.

It's a significant convergence zone. If we look at 200mb, we have a jet streak positioned over northern Florida and the ULAC from Milton positioned to his east. These two are responsible for our convergence zone out ahead of Milton. Essentially in our front right quadrant of our jet streak (see my post here if you want to know more about jet streaks - https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 6#p3064366) we have divergence aloft and convergence at the surface:


We've had some solid updrafts as well (denoted by the lightning), with some decent rotational supercells offshore embedded:

[Blown Away]

Meanwhile as Milton continues moving ENE…

[StormChaser75]

https://x.com/Storm_Chaser_75/status/1843858736336777223?t=8DP6EZ4aKOP_eAxgeoDiJw&s=19

[SouthFLTropics]

https://x.com/michaelrlowry/status/1843 ... 8HqY_wVNcQ

What a way to be honored…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FLLurker32]

Hurricane wind odds in Tampa fell to 37% (still high but a big drop) while hurricane wind odds in Venice rose to an astounding 67%. My goodness brace for impact down that way...!

As the storm gets closer the %’s will rise accordingly

Or fall.
Those percentages are based on current track. IF it were to continue on the NHC track, those odds will fall to zero, as the wind field in this storm is stunningly small.
From the National Weather Service's own predictions, it shows North Pinellas barely getting above tropical storm sustained, pretty similar to what Helene brought. That's pretty stunning, and is honestly creating some cognitive dissonance compared to how powerful this storm is at its core. But the math is the math.

Obviously, all of that changes with a minor tweak in path.

Don’t forget they’re expecting the wind field to expand significantly prior to landfall. What you’re saying is true now, but not expected to be true later.

[AutoPenalti]

Milton will likely begin its 38° heading soon.

[Steve]

We just had an X1.8 earth facing flare with a full halo CME....

For those keeping up with that type of thing

Got a depiction Godess?

[fci]

Hurricane wind odds in Tampa fell to 37% (still high but a big drop) while hurricane wind odds in Venice rose to an astounding 67%. My goodness brace for impact down that way...!

As the storm gets closer the %’s will rise accordingly

Or decline

Yes, exactly!
That’s why I said “accordingly”.
As the storm gets closer the odds will rise where it will most likely hit and drop where it won’t.
At this point 67 is high, and if the track continues, will rise.
No location would be at 90 or 100 at this point and 37 could easily rise.

[Stormgodess]

We just had an X1.8 earth facing flare with a full halo CME....

For those keeping up with that type of thing

Got a depiction Godess?

An AMAZING one actually!

https://imgur.com/a/lw40jq7

[Keldeo1997]

Sat appearance has picked up again. ADT is estimating 901MB and 180MPH. No EWRC in sight on Cuba radar. Recon might find a Suprise later.

[Exalt]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/WbM8t15b/goes16-ir-14-L-202410090107.gif [/url]

Meanwhile as Milton continues moving ENE…

Is this thing bombing again? Looks like it’s trying to reform that pink circle

[Pas_Bon]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/WbM8t15b/goes16-ir-14-L-202410090107.gif [/url]

Meanwhile as Milton continues moving ENE…

Is this thing bombing again? Looks like it’s trying to reform that pink circle

Yes.

[Kohlecane]

Sat appearance has picked up again. ADT is estimating 901MB and 180MPH. No EWRC in sight on Cuba radar. Recon might find a Suprise later.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1293422676362133554/Screenshot_238.png?ex=6707513c&is=6705ffbc&hm=ff069f0bf7c086135712132ba7df2bd222b69d79347d68e025e6954a09f0c084&

*Insert James Doakes meme*

[ElectricStorm]

AF300 is in the air, should get a pass in a little over an hour

[Cyclenall]

Didn't see any comments about this insane dropsonde drop that just came in

https://i.imgur.com/weIuqhr.png

Data is from an hour and a half ago

What is this indicative of, though?

Bumping this from earlier, I'd like to know what that means too? I've just started reading into those charts but the temp doesn't change with height here. Insane winds throughout the column as well?

As a aside, I was reading some of the Wilma thread and noticed many were fearful for Tampa around the day before she exploded. Some users from Tampa, I don't see posting anymore.

[weeniepatrol]

Eye is warming.