ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Beef Stew]

053430 2358N 08607W 6965 02948 9786 +126 +035 061061 062 062 002 00
053500 2357N 08606W 6970 02925 9766 +127 +039 056066 069 065 003 00
053530 2355N 08605W 6967 02904 9764 +104 +044 057076 080 073 003 00
053600 2354N 08604W 6971 02865 9734 +095 +045 062088 093 080 007 00
053630 2353N 08603W 6969 02820 9675 +102 +044 060100 103 090 015 00
053700 2351N 08602W 6980 02751 9616 +099 +042 056114 120 095 066 00
053730 2350N 08602W 6933 02718 9509 +106 +040 049129 133 122 085 00
053800 2348N 08601W 6972 02520 9347 +116 +038 043111 133 170 036 00
053830 2347N 08600W 6976 02392 9189 +150 +042 032051 094 168 018 00
053900 2345N 08558W 6974 02356 9146 +152 +047 012017 033 057 003 00
053930 2345N 08556W 6986 02323 9126 +154 +052 225013 020 033 001 00
054000 2344N 08554W 6975 02348 9136 +151 +059 204036 042 045 003 03
054030 2343N 08553W 6965 02374 9143 +167 +064 213070 088 088 006 00
054100 2342N 08552W 6955 02465 9261 +120 +069 221124 138 144 034 00
054130 2341N 08551W 6969 02568 9393 +115 +067 220138 145 148 026 00

[Beef Stew]

053430 2358N 08607W 6965 02948 9786 +126 +035 061061 062 062 002 00
053500 2357N 08606W 6970 02925 9766 +127 +039 056066 069 065 003 00
053530 2355N 08605W 6967 02904 9764 +104 +044 057076 080 073 003 00
053600 2354N 08604W 6971 02865 9734 +095 +045 062088 093 080 007 00
053630 2353N 08603W 6969 02820 9675 +102 +044 060100 103 090 015 00
053700 2351N 08602W 6980 02751 9616 +099 +042 056114 120 095 066 00
053730 2350N 08602W 6933 02718 9509 +106 +040 049129 133 122 085 00
053800 2348N 08601W 6972 02520 9347 +116 +038 043111 133 170 036 00
053830 2347N 08600W 6976 02392 9189 +150 +042 032051 094 168 018 00
053900 2345N 08558W 6974 02356 9146 +152 +047 012017 033 057 003 00
053930 2345N 08556W 6986 02323 9126 +154 +052 225013 020 033 001 00
054000 2344N 08554W 6975 02348 9136 +151 +059 204036 042 045 003 03
054030 2343N 08553W 6965 02374 9143 +167 +064 213070 088 088 006 00
054100 2342N 08552W 6955 02465 9261 +120 +069 221124 138 144 034 00
054130 2341N 08551W 6969 02568 9393 +115 +067 220138 145 148 026 00

Peak FL of 145 kts in the SE quad; peak SFMR of 170 kts in the NW quad. Extrapolated pressure 912.6. Pass suggests Milton is and has been holding steady for the most part. If we discount sfmr, perhaps a gradual weakening from previous FL winds could be argued.

[Hurricane Mike]

I wonder if maybe it will stay smaller and stronger and further south rather than larger and weaker and further north?

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[wx98]

May be seeing a slight reduction in intensity at the next update, in line with latest recon data and satellite trends. If this tracks south of Tampa Bay, there’ll be a radically different surge scenario, with the bay actually emptying (like with Ian). The bay side of St Petersburg and Clearwater could still have surge issues with offshore wind. Still well within the margin of error for track, but things are definitely trending south today. If trends hold, look for NHC to start to lower surge forecasts slightly for the bay and northward.

Do you expect another southward adjustment at 11?

I think they may have ticked it south at 3z? That said the GFS and ECMWF are dead set on Pinellas County or the mouth of Tampa Bay. It seems like it’s becoming an increasingly harder angle to make, and I personally feel like it’ll come in a little south of the bay, but Tampa Bay is still very much in play for a direct landfall.

[psyclone]

May be seeing a slight reduction in intensity at the next update, in line with latest recon data and satellite trends. If this tracks south of Tampa Bay, there’ll be a radically different surge scenario, with the bay actually emptying (like with Ian). The bay side of St Petersburg and Clearwater could still have surge issues with offshore wind. Still well within the margin of error for track, but things are definitely trending south today. If trends hold, look for NHC to start to lower surge forecasts slightly for the bay and northward.

Do you expect another southward adjustment at 11?

I think they may have ticked it south at 3z? That said the GFS and ECMWF are dead set on Pinellas County or the mouth of Tampa Bay. It seems like it’s becoming an increasingly harder angle to make, and I personally feel like it’ll come in a little south of the bay, but Tampa Bay is still very much in play for a direct landfall.

I found tonight's runs very disquieting as a tampa bay resident...

[jdjaguar]

I wonder if maybe it will stay smaller and stronger and further south rather than larger and weaker and further north?

I think its the other way around, hence the nudge northward of the cone with the latest update. Hopefully dry air and the strong sheer will begin to weaken Milton today before eventual landfall.

[Dean_175]

I wonder if maybe it will stay smaller and stronger and further south rather than larger and weaker and further north?

I think its the other way around, hence the nudge northward of the cone with the latest update. Hopefully dry air and the strong sheer will begin to weaken Milton today before eventual landfall.

The cone was not nudged northward on the 11pm update..

[FLLurker32]

It looks to be pulling a bit more North of East in the last few frames.

[Keldeo1997]

No EWRC in sight. Also the positioning of that big band is important. Might help with walling off the dry air from getting into the core.

[ElectricStorm]

Drop supports 909mb, so it's dropped from the last mission though I'm not sure how long that will last

[jdjaguar]

I wonder if maybe it will stay smaller and stronger and further south rather than larger and weaker and further north?

I think its the other way around, hence the nudge northward of the cone with the latest update. Hopefully dry air and the strong sheer will begin to weaken Milton today before eventual landfall.

The cone was not nudged northward on the 11pm update..

look at the 2am update

[Exalt]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Milton doing well in the face of strong shear.

Is this not b/c the shear is working with Milton rather than against it and thus shredding it?

[NDG]

We have all major global models just at or just north of the NHC forecast track, with the latest 0z Euro now having Milton making landfall in Southern Pinellas County/Tampa Bay into Hillsborough County.

[Exalt]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1293457357585780771/Image_1728454585959.png?ex=67077189&is=67062009&hm=69efd3d0000633df2f860e3326b146861dbc1f795d9ff9e405255f1398e5a070&
No EWRC in sight. Also the positioning of that big band is important. Might help with walling off the dry air from getting into the core.

Could we see that large band around it being a potential second eye? If so that's fairly worrying with how big the new one would be.

[kevin]

Euro has shifted north. Canadian and HWRF are now the only models not showing a TB landfall. Expect a slight nudge to the north in the 5am advisory.

[ChrisH-UK]

Milton is now showing up on radar out of the Keys.

[chaser1]

Euro has shifted north. Canadian and HWRF are now the only models not showing a TB landfall. Expect a slight nudge to the north in the 5am advisory.

Subtle as that would be; I certainly would not have expected Milton to make up any additional latitude prior to landfall. If anything, I would have anticipated a premature ENE motion if anything.

[caneman]

Euro has shifted north. Canadian and HWRF are now the only models not showing a TB landfall. Expect a slight nudge to the north in the 5am advisory.

Subtle as that would be; I certainly would not have expected Milton to make up any additional latitude prior to landfall. If anything, I would have anticipated a premature ENE motion if anything.

Agree. Been watching these for a long time. Almost always when they start trending more east they stay that way. Very unusual to bend back west in modeling in east Gulf.

[FLLurker32]

Euro has shifted north. Canadian and HWRF are now the only models not showing a TB landfall. Expect a slight nudge to the north in the 5am advisory.

It’s worth pointing out - The HWRF 0z actually showed it in the exact location it is right now.