ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

Going to be extremely close to a Tampa Bay landfall. Could be as close as 5-10 miles that make a huge difference. An almost due north motion is happening currently, and this is the time when wobbles make huge differences. My hunch is still just barely south of Tampa, but I'd be sweating it out if I were a Tampa resident.

[xironman]

To me I don't see this one going much to the right of Sarasota.

[johngaltfla]

Just finished my shutters in Port St. Lucie. Better safe than sorry! Could see hurricane strength GUSTS here later...

Just put my last two up over the sliders. Now it's the noisy time coming up. If it stays on 35 degrees Tampa is in big trouble.

[kevin]

Milton position tracking and extrapolation

Recorded positions:

02:00 AM — 23.8N, 86.0W
05:00 AM — 24.5N, 85.4W (+0.7N, -0.6W)
08:00 AM — 25.0N, 84.8W (+0.5N, -0.6W)
11:00 AM — 25.8N, 84.3W (+0.8N, -0.5W)

Projected position forecasted at the 11 AM advisory (including extrapolations, marked in grey)

02:00 PM — 26.2N, 83.9W (+0.4N, -0.4W)
05:00 PM — 26.6N, 83.5W (+0.4N, -0.4W)
08:00 PM — 27.0N, 83.0W (+0.4N, -0.5W)
11:00 PM — 27.3N, 82.5W (+0.3N, -0.5W) (Landfall at Siesta Key, 6 miles south of Sarasota)
02:00 AM — 27.5N, 82.1W (+0.2N, -0.4W)
02:00 AM — 27.8N, 81.6W (+0.3N, -0.5W)
08:00 AM — 28.0N, 81.1W (+0.2N, -0.5W)

The projection is for Milton to slow down considerably and start angling to the West over the next 24 hours, and at 11 PM tonight it will landfall at the southern portion of Siesta Key, which is 6 miles to the south of Sarasota and 50 miles to the south of Tampa.

So if the forecast verifies we'd need to a NE shift in the next 2.5 hours since it's moving NNE right now.

[Pas_Bon]

is it still over the loop current?

No....over relatively cooler waters now......still more than warm enough, though.

[Mike33534]

Milton position tracking and extrapolation

Recorded positions:

02:00 AM — 23.8N, 86.0W
05:00 AM — 24.5N, 85.4W (+0.7N, -0.6W)
08:00 AM — 25.0N, 84.8W (+0.5N, -0.6W)
11:00 AM — 25.8N, 84.3W (+0.8N, -0.5W)

Projected position forecasted at the 11 AM advisory (including extrapolations, marked in grey)

02:00 PM — 26.2N, 83.9W (+0.4N, -0.4W)
05:00 PM — 26.6N, 83.5W (+0.4N, -0.4W)
08:00 PM — 27.0N, 83.0W (+0.4N, -0.5W)
11:00 PM — 27.3N, 82.5W (+0.3N, -0.5W) (Landfall at Siesta Key, 6 miles south of Sarasota)
02:00 AM — 27.5N, 82.1W (+0.2N, -0.4W)
02:00 AM — 27.8N, 81.6W (+0.3N, -0.5W)
08:00 AM — 28.0N, 81.1W (+0.2N, -0.5W)

The projection is for Milton to slow down considerably and start angling to the West over the next 24 hours, and at 11 PM tonight it will landfall at the southern portion of Siesta Key, which is 6 miles to the south of Sarasota and 50 miles to the south of Tampa.

This will be good to refer back to every 3 hours

[Sunnydays]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWisr5zg3so

Great channel on youtube with many live webcams all in one place up and down the coastline of Florida for those interested in watching live conditions.

[Abdullah]

IR improving again with the center becoming identifiable again. Looks like a quick eyewall meld took place imo.

How does an eyewall meld compare to a normal eyewall replacement?

[Xyls]

The PDS tornado near Clewiston:

https://x.com/Camtheyam64/status/1844035904824033666

[kevin]

IR improving again with the center becoming identifiable again. Looks like a quick eyewall meld took place imo.

How does an eyewall meld compare to a normal eyewall replacement?

In an EWRC the inner eyewall slowly deteriorates and eventually fully disappears, only leaving the outer eyewall. In a meld neither eyewall dissipates, but instead the outer eyewall contracts and absorbs the inner eyewall. However, radar does seem to indicate it was an ERWC, just a very fast one.

[underthwx]

To me I don't see this one going much to the right of Sarasota.

https://i.imgur.com/Y609pS5.gif

looks like a pretty solid band approaching the coastline....

[Powellrm]

IR improving again with the center becoming identifiable again. Looks like a quick eyewall meld took place imo.

How does an eyewall meld compare to a normal eyewall replacement?

In an EWRC the inner eyewall slowly deteriorates and eventually fully disappears, only leaving the outer eyewall. In a meld neither eyewall dissipates, but instead the outer eyewall contracts and absorbs the inner eyewall. However, radar does seem to indicate it was an ERWC, just a very fast one.

Great info! That is mostly what I had envisioned in terms of the melding. And whoa boy that was a quick EWRC.

[Full8s]

Another violent wedge tornado on the ground heading north if this stays on the ground it is heading for the city of Clewiston. I don't know what Florida has in the way of basements this is NOT good...

Basements in that part of Florida are non-existent.

[wzrgirl1]

IR improving again with the center becoming identifiable again. Looks like a quick eyewall meld took place imo.

Looks like both a meld and replacement

What is a meld? Dual eyes forming into one larger one?

[Mike33534]

So far in limited time, trending, north of their center line, of course they also moved it south at 11

[NDG]

24 degrees is NNE not NNW

No worries NDG, we knew what you meant! Can you imagine? All heck would break loose here.

NDG has given so much to these boards lately. I'm very sure NDG must be totally exhausted from all the hard work that has been put into the research. Thank you, NDG, for keeping us up to date, especially in the Models thread!

Sorry, meant to type NNE.

[psyclone]

Going to be extremely close to a Tampa Bay landfall. Could be as close as 5-10 miles that make a huge difference. An almost due north motion is happening currently, and this is the time when wobbles make huge differences. My hunch is still just barely south of Tampa, but I'd be sweating it out if I were a Tampa resident.

We're sweating. Tense

[mpic]

Another violent wedge tornado on the ground heading north if this stays on the ground it is heading for the city of Clewiston. I don't know what Florida has in the way of basements this is NOT good...

Basements in that part of Florida are non-existent.

We don't even have them in southeast Texas. The reason in my area is because the water level (aquafir) is only 20' below the surface. Also the reason why coffins are above ground in New Orleans.

[Travorum]

Another observed tornado, NW of Lake Okeechobee. Same cell that dropped the tornado near Clewiston.
 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1844039481315446809

[TallyTracker]

is it still over the loop current?

No....over relatively cooler waters now......still more than warm enough, though.

It’s over waters with less heat content, but the temperature is the same as that of the Loop Current. The only thing changing is the depth. Now that the storm is moving over 15 mph, that has less impact on the storm’s intensity.