ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4461 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:22 am

Going to be extremely close to a Tampa Bay landfall. Could be as close as 5-10 miles that make a huge difference. An almost due north motion is happening currently, and this is the time when wobbles make huge differences. My hunch is still just barely south of Tampa, but I'd be sweating it out if I were a Tampa resident.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4462 Postby xironman » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:22 am

To me I don't see this one going much to the right of Sarasota.

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4463 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:23 am

toad strangler wrote:Just finished my shutters in Port St. Lucie. Better safe than sorry! Could see hurricane strength GUSTS here later... :flag:


Just put my last two up over the sliders. Now it's the noisy time coming up. If it stays on 35 degrees Tampa is in big trouble.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4464 Postby kevin » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:23 am

Abdullah wrote:Milton position tracking and extrapolation

Recorded positions:

02:00 AM — 23.8N, 86.0W
05:00 AM — 24.5N, 85.4W (+0.7N, -0.6W)
08:00 AM — 25.0N, 84.8W (+0.5N, -0.6W)
11:00 AM — 25.8N, 84.3W (+0.8N, -0.5W)

Projected position forecasted at the 11 AM advisory (including extrapolations, marked in grey)

02:00 PM — 26.2N, 83.9W (+0.4N, -0.4W)
05:00 PM — 26.6N, 83.5W (+0.4N, -0.4W)

08:00 PM — 27.0N, 83.0W (+0.4N, -0.5W)
11:00 PM — 27.3N, 82.5W (+0.3N, -0.5W) (Landfall at Siesta Key, 6 miles south of Sarasota)
02:00 AM — 27.5N, 82.1W (+0.2N, -0.4W)
02:00 AM — 27.8N, 81.6W (+0.3N, -0.5W)

08:00 AM — 28.0N, 81.1W (+0.2N, -0.5W)

The projection is for Milton to slow down considerably and start angling to the West over the next 24 hours, and at 11 PM tonight it will landfall at the southern portion of Siesta Key, which is 6 miles to the south of Sarasota and 50 miles to the south of Tampa.


So if the forecast verifies we'd need to a NE shift in the next 2.5 hours since it's moving NNE right now.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4465 Postby Pas_Bon » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:24 am

CronkPSU wrote:is it still over the loop current?


No....over relatively cooler waters now......still more than warm enough, though.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4466 Postby Mike33534 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:25 am

Abdullah wrote:Milton position tracking and extrapolation

Recorded positions:

02:00 AM — 23.8N, 86.0W
05:00 AM — 24.5N, 85.4W (+0.7N, -0.6W)
08:00 AM — 25.0N, 84.8W (+0.5N, -0.6W)
11:00 AM — 25.8N, 84.3W (+0.8N, -0.5W)

Projected position forecasted at the 11 AM advisory (including extrapolations, marked in grey)

02:00 PM — 26.2N, 83.9W (+0.4N, -0.4W)
05:00 PM — 26.6N, 83.5W (+0.4N, -0.4W)

08:00 PM — 27.0N, 83.0W (+0.4N, -0.5W)
11:00 PM — 27.3N, 82.5W (+0.3N, -0.5W) (Landfall at Siesta Key, 6 miles south of Sarasota)
02:00 AM — 27.5N, 82.1W (+0.2N, -0.4W)
02:00 AM — 27.8N, 81.6W (+0.3N, -0.5W)

08:00 AM — 28.0N, 81.1W (+0.2N, -0.5W)

The projection is for Milton to slow down considerably and start angling to the West over the next 24 hours, and at 11 PM tonight it will landfall at the southern portion of Siesta Key, which is 6 miles to the south of Sarasota and 50 miles to the south of Tampa.

This will be good to refer back to every 3 hours
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4467 Postby Sunnydays » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:25 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWisr5zg3so

Great channel on youtube with many live webcams all in one place up and down the coastline of Florida for those interested in watching live conditions.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4468 Postby Abdullah » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:30 am

kevin wrote:IR improving again with the center becoming identifiable again. Looks like a quick eyewall meld took place imo.


How does an eyewall meld compare to a normal eyewall replacement?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4469 Postby Xyls » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:32 am

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Not a professional meteorologist. Please refer to NHC forecasts for official information/advice relating to tropical systems.

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4470 Postby kevin » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:32 am

Abdullah wrote:
kevin wrote:IR improving again with the center becoming identifiable again. Looks like a quick eyewall meld took place imo.


How does an eyewall meld compare to a normal eyewall replacement?


In an EWRC the inner eyewall slowly deteriorates and eventually fully disappears, only leaving the outer eyewall. In a meld neither eyewall dissipates, but instead the outer eyewall contracts and absorbs the inner eyewall. However, radar does seem to indicate it was an ERWC, just a very fast one.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4471 Postby underthwx » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:34 am

xironman wrote:To me I don't see this one going much to the right of Sarasota.

https://i.imgur.com/Y609pS5.gif

looks like a pretty solid band approaching the coastline....
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4472 Postby Powellrm » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:35 am

kevin wrote:
Abdullah wrote:
kevin wrote:IR improving again with the center becoming identifiable again. Looks like a quick eyewall meld took place imo.


How does an eyewall meld compare to a normal eyewall replacement?


In an EWRC the inner eyewall slowly deteriorates and eventually fully disappears, only leaving the outer eyewall. In a meld neither eyewall dissipates, but instead the outer eyewall contracts and absorbs the inner eyewall. However, radar does seem to indicate it was an ERWC, just a very fast one.


Great info! That is mostly what I had envisioned in terms of the melding. And whoa boy that was a quick EWRC.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4473 Postby Full8s » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:35 am

Xyls wrote:Another violent wedge tornado on the ground heading north if this stays on the ground it is heading for the city of Clewiston. I don't know what Florida has in the way of basements this is NOT good...


Basements in that part of Florida are non-existent.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4474 Postby wzrgirl1 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:37 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
kevin wrote:IR improving again with the center becoming identifiable again. Looks like a quick eyewall meld took place imo.

Looks like both a meld and replacement


What is a meld? Dual eyes forming into one larger one?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4475 Postby Mike33534 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:39 am

So far in limited time, trending, north of their center line, of course they also moved it south at 11
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4476 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:39 am

Orlando wrote:
sponger wrote:
Soluna16 wrote:
24 degrees is NNE not NNW


No worries NDG, we knew what you meant! Can you imagine? All heck would break loose here.


NDG has given so much to these boards lately. I'm very sure NDG must be totally exhausted from all the hard work that has been put into the research. Thank you, NDG, for keeping us up to date, especially in the Models thread!


Sorry, meant to type NNE.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4477 Postby psyclone » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:39 am

MississippiWx wrote:Going to be extremely close to a Tampa Bay landfall. Could be as close as 5-10 miles that make a huge difference. An almost due north motion is happening currently, and this is the time when wobbles make huge differences. My hunch is still just barely south of Tampa, but I'd be sweating it out if I were a Tampa resident.

We're sweating. Tense
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4478 Postby mpic » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:39 am

Full8s wrote:
Xyls wrote:Another violent wedge tornado on the ground heading north if this stays on the ground it is heading for the city of Clewiston. I don't know what Florida has in the way of basements this is NOT good...


Basements in that part of Florida are non-existent.

We don't even have them in southeast Texas. The reason in my area is because the water level (aquafir) is only 20' below the surface. Also the reason why coffins are above ground in New Orleans.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4479 Postby Travorum » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:39 am

Another observed tornado, NW of Lake Okeechobee. Same cell that dropped the tornado near Clewiston.
 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1844039481315446809

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4480 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Oct 09, 2024 10:42 am

Pas_Bon wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:is it still over the loop current?


No....over relatively cooler waters now......still more than warm enough, though.


It’s over waters with less heat content, but the temperature is the same as that of the Loop Current. The only thing changing is the depth. Now that the storm is moving over 15 mph, that has less impact on the storm’s intensity.
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