ATL: MILTON - Models

[StormPyrate]

looks like all the hurricane models all came in south of Tampa Bay, not the globals

[caneseddy]

Euro right into Tampa Bay

[BobHarlem]

12z HAFS-A Sarasota
12z HAFS-B Bradenton
12z HWRF Bradenton
12z HMON Up bay

[kevin]

I only have the 6 hour intervals, but 12z Euro is right into Tampa Bay. It also correctly shows the weakening in the last few hours and shows stabilization or a tiny bit of strengthening up to landfall (956 to 954 mb).

[StormPyrate]

Euro right into Tampa Bay

So Euro and Icon are the most North tracks?

[ronjon]

So will it be GFS track into Sarasota or EURO/ICON into Tampa Bay? Still unresolved with less than 12 hours to go before landfall.

[kevin]

Milton at 18z = 26.3N, 84.0W

Where should Milton be at 18z according to all the models (sorted north to south).

12z CMC = 26.7N, 84.6W -> Bradenton
12z Euro = 26.5N, 84.1W -> into TB
12z ICON = 26.5N, 84.1W -> into TB
12z HMON = 26.4N, 84.1W -> into TB
12z HWRF = 26.2N, 84.0W -> Bradenton
12z HAFS-A = 26.2N, 84.2W -> Sarasota
12z GFS = 26.2N, 84.3W -> Bradenton
12z HAFS-B = 26.1N, 84.2W -> Bradenton

[NDG]

Close up look of 12z Euro run. Landfall Ana Maria, upper Longboat Key into parts of Tampa Bay up to Tampa.
Much better agreement now with timing of landfall when yesterday it showed landfall at 7 AM tomorrow morning.

[Hurrilurker]

Close up look of 12z Euro run. Landfall Ana Maria, upper Longboat Key into parts of Tampa Bay up to Tampa.
Much better agreement now with timing of landfall when yesterday it showed landfall at 7 AM tomorrow morning.

https://i.imgur.com/jBtlyo5.gif

Why is it doing that crazy lurch to the north as it landfalls? Is that friction from land interaction?

[kevin]

The same, but now with the 21z position. It isn't 21z yet, but Milton was already at 26.8W, 83.6W at 19:50z. So it looks like ICON/HMON/Euro are the most accurate models and they all take it into TB.

12z CMC = 26.9N, 84.0W (interpolated) -> Bradenton
12z ICON = 26.9N, 83.6W -> into TB
12z HMON = 26.9N, 83.6W -> into TB
12z Euro = 26.8N, 83.7W (interpolated) -> into TB
12z HWRF = 26.7N, 83.6W -> Bradenton
12z HAFS-B = 26.7N, 83.5W -> Bradenton
12z HAFS-A = 26.6N, 83.6W -> Sarasota
12z GFS = 26.6N, 83.7W (interpolated) -> Bradenton

[onadraw]

Looks like it's coming ashore sooner than anyone thought. Is this still going to turn East? Worried up north.

[BobHarlem]

18zs

[BobHarlem]

Final icon before landfall 18z, up the bay, out just north of Cape Canaveral

[kevin]

Final icon before landfall 18z, up the bay, out just north of Cape Canaveral

https://i.imgur.com/HYgO2Go.gif

It also already shows landfall in 3 hours.

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS

[Abdullah]

Is landfall when the eye touches the coastline or when the center of the eye reaches it?

[Nimbus]

Indeed GFS goes S - but wow - what kind of wobbling is this? Looks like a track my 5 year old created with some crayons!

Looks like the actual track to me.
It was the long EWRC.

[WaveBreaking]

Is landfall when the eye touches the coastline or when the center of the eye reaches it?

When the center passes over.

[cycloneye]

The question for the model followers is which model(s) did the best with the landfall that had pressure of 954 mbs and also the track?

[DESTRUCTION5]

The question for the model followers is which model(s) did the best with the landfall that had pressure of 954 mbs and also the track?

NHC.