ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TomballEd]

Massive debris ball/CC drop heading towards Vero Beach. Don't think I've ever seen one that big from a TC spawned tornado

Not sure I've ever heard of an anticyclonic twin in a TC tornado, either.

Hurricane Carla had a multi-fatality F4 in Galveston. But this isn't normal.

[CrazyC83]

I have to believe the intense wind shear that is weakening Milton has also greatly enhanced the tornado outbreak today. It's like a Plains or Deep South outbreak, not something normally seen ahead of a hurricane.

[Steve]

Massive debris ball/CC drop heading towards Vero Beach. Don't think I've ever seen one that big from a TC spawned tornado

Not sure I've ever heard of an anticyclonic twin in a TC tornado, either.

Hurricane Carla had a multi-fatality F4 in Galveston. But this isn't normal.

No it isn’t. That band has been insane. I think I said it was HWRF a couple days ago that hinted at the embedded cells. It looked like trouble. Also noted earlier but Andy said it’s been since ‘05 they had this level of warning (significant tornado).

[ElectricStorm]

Another confirmed tor behind it on a similar path, maybe slightly east of the first one

[SconnieCane]

Massive debris ball/CC drop heading towards Vero Beach. Don't think I've ever seen one that big from a TC spawned tornado

Most of them aren't (a) that strong and (b) moving through a densely populated area with tremendous amounts of debris to pick up.

Generally when you see strong tornadoes associated with TCs it's from the remnant low a day or two after landfall; IIRC Beryl produced an EF3 in southern Indiana earlier this year; and Harvey produced a long-track EF2 in Alabama in 2017.

[Abdullah]

Milton position tracking and interpolation

Recorded positions:

02:00 AM — 23.8N, 86.0W
05:00 AM — 24.5N, 85.4W (+0.7N, -0.6W) (17 mph)
08:00 AM — 25.0N, 84.8W (+0.5N, -0.6W) (15 mph)
11:00 AM — 25.8N, 84.3W (+0.8N, -0.5W) (18 mph)
02:00 PM — 26.3N, 84.0W (+0.5N, -0.3W) (11 mph)
05:00 PM — 26.9N, 83.4W (+0.6N, -0.6W) (16 mph)

Projected position forecasted at the 11 AM advisory (including interpolations, marked in grey)

08:00 PM — 27.3N, 82.9W (+0.4N, -0.5W) (12 mph)
11:00 PM — 27.7N, 82.4W (+0.4N, -0.5W) (12 mph)
02:00 AM — 28.0N, 81.8W (+0.3N, -0.6W) (12 mph)

The projection is for Milton to slow down moderately and start angling to the West over the next few hours, and at 9:20 PM tonight it will landfall at 27.5N, 84.7W, at Bradenton Beach. This location is 37 miles to the south-southwest of Tampa and 13 miles to the northwest of Sarasota.

The track forecast has been shifted north by 20 to 30 miles, reminiscent of the 20 to 30 miles to the northwest Milton tracked ahead of its forecast.

[Steve]

I have to believe the intense wind shear that is weakening Milton has also greatly enhanced the tornado outbreak today. It's like a Plains or Deep South outbreak, not something normally seen ahead of a hurricane.

C,

Considering they started to the way south of the reach of the trough in SW FL and that band is now close to the Atlantic would the influence to spark these not be coming from the SE or SSE?

[USTropics]

Here is 120 frames (4 1/2 hours) of radar loop from the tornado outbreak. Last time I can remember an event like this in Florida was maybe Ivan?

[kassi]

 https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1844126923699687810

[Hurricane Mike]

5:15pm video update
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gg0a1MkvyL0

[TR772]

The videos coming out of Martin, St Lucie county look like footage from Kansas.

[ConvergenceZone]

Huge new eye?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20241009/427dede61e41fc518f0ef944aa974f1f.jpg


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

wow feeder bands in eyewall looks to be just offshore now based on that latest picture

[Steve]

Massive debris ball/CC drop heading towards Vero Beach. Don't think I've ever seen one that big from a TC spawned tornado

Most of them aren't (a) that strong and (b) moving through a densely populated area with tremendous amounts of debris to pick up.

Generally when you see strong tornadoes associated with TCs it's from the remnant low a day or two after landfall; IIRC Beryl produced an EF3 in southern Indiana earlier this year; and Harvey produced a long-track EF2 in Alabama in 2017.

NWS will classify several if not numerous of these above a 1 I’m pretty sure.

[eastcoastFL]

Tornado just came by Stuart the lightening and thunder were so loud.

[jasons2k]

The current east jog may be a big deal for Tampa Bay.

[CrazyC83]

Massive debris ball/CC drop heading towards Vero Beach. Don't think I've ever seen one that big from a TC spawned tornado

Most of them aren't (a) that strong and (b) moving through a densely populated area with tremendous amounts of debris to pick up.

Generally when you see strong tornadoes associated with TCs it's from the remnant low a day or two after landfall; IIRC Beryl produced an EF3 in southern Indiana earlier this year; and Harvey produced a long-track EF2 in Alabama in 2017.

Beryl, Debby and Helene all produced an EF-3 with their circulations this year. This has been the year for higher-end TC tornadoes.

[Javlin]

That wind to the north makes me think it is already starting to go into extratropical transition, and it may be ET before it re-emerges in the Atlantic. I wonder if the baroclinic forcing will offset the shear and keep it at its current strength up to landfall?

Do you think the land friction will tighten the circulation?

https://i.imgur.com/kew746W.gif

Absolutely could, might even strengthen a tad but what it is now is mostly what will be seen at landfall

Wwas thinking it may tug it L a bit?

[Poonwalker]

Well we are down to a wobble away in terms of surge impact where Iam located in Oldsmar. At this point going into Tampa bay seems likely but with the winds spreading out from center I believe the surge impact will stay south. Anna Maria and south that is.

[ElectricStorm]

Hopefully passes east of Indian River Shores and moves off the coast.

TOR-E worthy IMO and has been for a while

[CrazyC83]

I have to believe the intense wind shear that is weakening Milton has also greatly enhanced the tornado outbreak today. It's like a Plains or Deep South outbreak, not something normally seen ahead of a hurricane.

C,

Considering they started to the way south of the reach of the trough in SW FL and that band is now close to the Atlantic would the influence to spark these not be coming from the SE or SSE?

It is likely associated with a trailing pseudo-stationary front (which links up to 93L) that is steering Milton. That band is going offshore shortly, although the northern Bahamas could have a tornado threat this evening.