ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4901 Postby N2FSU » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:23 pm

Huge new eye?

Image


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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4902 Postby TomballEd » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:23 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:Massive debris ball/CC drop heading towards Vero Beach. Don't think I've ever seen one that big from a TC spawned tornado



Not sure I've ever heard of an anticyclonic twin in a TC tornado, either.

Hurricane Carla had a multi-fatality F4 in Galveston. But this isn't normal.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4903 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:25 pm

I have to believe the intense wind shear that is weakening Milton has also greatly enhanced the tornado outbreak today. It's like a Plains or Deep South outbreak, not something normally seen ahead of a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4904 Postby Steve » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:26 pm

TomballEd wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:Massive debris ball/CC drop heading towards Vero Beach. Don't think I've ever seen one that big from a TC spawned tornado



Not sure I've ever heard of an anticyclonic twin in a TC tornado, either.

Hurricane Carla had a multi-fatality F4 in Galveston. But this isn't normal.


No it isn’t. That band has been insane. I think I said it was HWRF a couple days ago that hinted at the embedded cells. It looked like trouble. Also noted earlier but Andy said it’s been since ‘05 they had this level of warning (significant tornado).
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4905 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:29 pm

Another confirmed tor behind it on a similar path, maybe slightly east of the first one
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4906 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:29 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:Massive debris ball/CC drop heading towards Vero Beach. Don't think I've ever seen one that big from a TC spawned tornado


Most of them aren't (a) that strong and (b) moving through a densely populated area with tremendous amounts of debris to pick up.

Generally when you see strong tornadoes associated with TCs it's from the remnant low a day or two after landfall; IIRC Beryl produced an EF3 in southern Indiana earlier this year; and Harvey produced a long-track EF2 in Alabama in 2017.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4907 Postby Abdullah » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:29 pm

Milton position tracking and interpolation

Recorded positions:

02:00 AM — 23.8N, 86.0W
05:00 AM — 24.5N, 85.4W (+0.7N, -0.6W) (17 mph)
08:00 AM — 25.0N, 84.8W (+0.5N, -0.6W) (15 mph)
11:00 AM — 25.8N, 84.3W (+0.8N, -0.5W) (18 mph)
02:00 PM — 26.3N, 84.0W (+0.5N, -0.3W) (11 mph)
05:00 PM — 26.9N, 83.4W (+0.6N, -0.6W) (16 mph)

Projected position forecasted at the 11 AM advisory (including interpolations, marked in grey)

08:00 PM — 27.3N, 82.9W (+0.4N, -0.5W) (12 mph)
11:00 PM — 27.7N, 82.4W (+0.4N, -0.5W) (12 mph)

02:00 AM — 28.0N, 81.8W (+0.3N, -0.6W) (12 mph)

The projection is for Milton to slow down moderately and start angling to the West over the next few hours, and at 9:20 PM tonight it will landfall at 27.5N, 84.7W, at Bradenton Beach. This location is 37 miles to the south-southwest of Tampa and 13 miles to the northwest of Sarasota.

The track forecast has been shifted north by 20 to 30 miles, reminiscent of the 20 to 30 miles to the northwest Milton tracked ahead of its forecast.
Last edited by Abdullah on Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4908 Postby Steve » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:29 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I have to believe the intense wind shear that is weakening Milton has also greatly enhanced the tornado outbreak today. It's like a Plains or Deep South outbreak, not something normally seen ahead of a hurricane.


C,

Considering they started to the way south of the reach of the trough in SW FL and that band is now close to the Atlantic would the influence to spark these not be coming from the SE or SSE?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4909 Postby USTropics » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:29 pm

Here is 120 frames (4 1/2 hours) of radar loop from the tornado outbreak. Last time I can remember an event like this in Florida was maybe Ivan?

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4910 Postby kassi » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:29 pm

Last edited by kassi on Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4911 Postby Hurricane Mike » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:30 pm

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4912 Postby TR772 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:30 pm

The videos coming out of Martin, St Lucie county look like footage from Kansas.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4913 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:30 pm

N2FSU wrote:Huge new eye?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20241009/427dede61e41fc518f0ef944aa974f1f.jpg


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wow feeder bands in eyewall looks to be just offshore now based on that latest picture
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4914 Postby Steve » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:31 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:Massive debris ball/CC drop heading towards Vero Beach. Don't think I've ever seen one that big from a TC spawned tornado


Most of them aren't (a) that strong and (b) moving through a densely populated area with tremendous amounts of debris to pick up.

Generally when you see strong tornadoes associated with TCs it's from the remnant low a day or two after landfall; IIRC Beryl produced an EF3 in southern Indiana earlier this year; and Harvey produced a long-track EF2 in Alabama in 2017.


NWS will classify several if not numerous of these above a 1 I’m pretty sure.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4915 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:31 pm

Tornado just came by Stuart the lightening and thunder were so loud.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4916 Postby jasons2k » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:32 pm

The current east jog may be a big deal for Tampa Bay.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4917 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:32 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:Massive debris ball/CC drop heading towards Vero Beach. Don't think I've ever seen one that big from a TC spawned tornado


Most of them aren't (a) that strong and (b) moving through a densely populated area with tremendous amounts of debris to pick up.

Generally when you see strong tornadoes associated with TCs it's from the remnant low a day or two after landfall; IIRC Beryl produced an EF3 in southern Indiana earlier this year; and Harvey produced a long-track EF2 in Alabama in 2017.


Beryl, Debby and Helene all produced an EF-3 with their circulations this year. This has been the year for higher-end TC tornadoes.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4918 Postby Javlin » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:32 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
xironman wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:That wind to the north makes me think it is already starting to go into extratropical transition, and it may be ET before it re-emerges in the Atlantic. I wonder if the baroclinic forcing will offset the shear and keep it at its current strength up to landfall?


Do you think the land friction will tighten the circulation?

https://i.imgur.com/kew746W.gif


Absolutely could, might even strengthen a tad but what it is now is mostly what will be seen at landfall

Wwas thinking it may tug it L a bit?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4919 Postby Poonwalker » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:32 pm

Well we are down to a wobble away in terms of surge impact where Iam located in Oldsmar. At this point going into Tampa bay seems likely but with the winds spreading out from center I believe the surge impact will stay south. Anna Maria and south that is.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4920 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 09, 2024 4:33 pm

Hopefully passes east of Indian River Shores and moves off the coast.

TOR-E worthy IMO and has been for a while
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