ATL: OSCAR - Models

[SFLcane]

12z Ecmwf is north that Wsw dive is nonsense in October lol let alone anytime of the year

[boca]

12z Ecmwf is north that Wsw dive is nonsense in October lol let alone anytime of the year

94L will curve north way before Florida and I haven’t come across any storms that hit Florida from the east in October.

[Category5Kaiju]

Interesting 12z icon run with 94L Not sure I recall a system that moved SW near/over Hispaniola to get to Jamaica.
https://i.imgur.com/aqq2mHX.gif

While fairly rare, there have been a select handful of systems that went on a prolonged SW path over the Caribbean like that. Irma, Ike, and Hurricane 4 of 1888 come to mind.

Safe to say that this year hasn't exactly been a year that has produced cyclones traveling in a "normal" path (cough cough, Milton), so while rare, I wouldn't necessarily discount the possibility of a storm taking that kind of path just yet.

[toad strangler]

12z Ecmwf is north that Wsw dive is nonsense in October lol let alone anytime of the year

94L will curve north way before Florida and I haven’t come across any storms that hit Florida from the east in October.

Hurricanes
1904 Miami / Dade (From S)
1941 Miami / Dade (From E)
1950 Miami / Dade - King (From S)

TS
1859 Palm Beach
1878 Miami Dade
1946 Palm Beach

[WeatherBoy2000]

I don't think people should be confidently saying something can't/won't happen because of "climatology" in 2024.

[emeraldislenc]

I agree never say never I remember some people said a storm would not move east in the bay of Campeche last week well we know what happened I think we need to remind ourselves this year is different!

[Teban54]

12z Ecmwf is north that Wsw dive is nonsense in October lol let alone anytime of the year

94L will curve north way before Florida and I haven’t come across any storms that hit Florida from the east in October.

Hurricanes
1904 Miami / Dade (From S)
1941 Miami / Dade (From E)
1950 Miami / Dade - King (From S)

TS
1859 Palm Beach
1878 Miami Dade
1946 Palm Beach

Also, Nicole from just 2 years ago hit SFL from the east in November.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z Ecmwf is north that Wsw dive is nonsense in October lol let alone anytime of the year

You can safely throw climatology in the bin this year. I'm treating this like a mid-September tropical cyclone.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HAFS-A/B make this system into a tropical storm in about five days. After its impressive validation during Milton, I will believe it.

[stormchazer]

12z Ecmwf is north that Wsw dive is nonsense in October lol let alone anytime of the year

Not sure you should be held by climatology or “that does not happen in October. A hurricane follows the flow and path of least resistance. If that means the storm ducks southwest then that’s where it will go.

[stormchazer]

12z Ecmwf is north that Wsw dive is nonsense in October lol let alone anytime of the year

Not sure you should be held hostage by climatology or “that does not happen in October”. A hurricane follows the flow and path of least resistance. If that means the storm ducks southwest then that’s where it will go.

[SFLcane]

12z Ecmwf is north that Wsw dive is nonsense in October lol let alone anytime of the year

Not sure you should be held hostage by climatology or “that does not happen in October”. A hurricane follows the flow and path of least resistance. If that means the storm ducks southwest then that’s where it will go.

Pretty silly to see this sorta track in mid October from the east but this year has been anything but normal. I can see impacts for PR-DR if it gets caught under some ridging but in terms of the conus it’s more then likely to catch a ride in the westerlies sooner rather then later.

[stormchazer]

12z Ecmwf is north that Wsw dive is nonsense in October lol let alone anytime of the year

Not sure you should be held hostage by climatology or “that does not happen in October”. A hurricane follows the flow and path of least resistance. If that means the storm ducks southwest then that’s where it will go.

Pretty silly to see this sorta track in mid October from the east but this year has been anything but normal. I can see impacts for PR-DR if it gets caught under some ridging but in terms of the conus it’s more then likely to catch a ride in the westerlies sooner rather then later.

Seemed “silly” for a hurricane to hit the west coast off Florida from the BOC yet….. Models at this point are a bit questionable this far out anyway but let’s see if it verifies.

[wzrgirl1]

In looking at model runs from another weather page, I am unsure what the latest run is, I get confused with zulu time. Is the latest 00z 06z 12z or 18z? Thanks.

[Soluna16]

In looking at model runs from another weather page, I am unsure what the latest run is, I get confused with zulu time. Is the latest 00z 06z 12z or 18z? Thanks.

Latest is 18z

[floridasun]

i got feeling that models by wed will have going near se Bahama but than going to north and NE after that we see in month of oct most time

[wzrgirl1]

In looking at model runs from another weather page, I am unsure what the latest run is, I get confused with zulu time. Is the latest 00z 06z 12z or 18z? Thanks.

Latest is 18z

thanks

[blp]

The 12z runs where showing a cutoff low sending this NE but these types of lows are typically hard for the models to resolve. Looks like the 18z Euro is back to High taking more of an influence.

18z


12z

[blp]

00z Icon much further west before trough picks it up.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

12z Ecmwf is north that Wsw dive is nonsense in October lol let alone anytime of the year

94L will curve north way before Florida and I haven’t come across any storms that hit Florida from the east in October.

Nothing is normal in 2024... Well we just had a C5 go from west to east