Michele B wrote:xironman wrote:Interesting to see the direction and speed. If it gets much south of Cuba the steering currents are strongly west.
https://i.imgur.com/GGmyqv4.gif
I don’t see how it takes a sharp north-easterly turn with those air currents.
That's because it's an analysis, and not a forecast.
Oscar is moving south of due west (260 degrees), still at about 10
kt. Due to strong mid-level ridging to the north and west, Oscar
is forecast to turn west-southwestward this morning, which will
bring the center to the coast of northeastern Cuba later this
afternoon. The ridge is expected to be replaced by a developing
mid- to upper-level trough over the western Atlantic in 24-48
hours, which should cause Oscar to turn westward and then northward
while inland over Cuba on Monday. Oscar is then forecast to
accelerate northeastward over the central Bahamas on Tuesday ahead
of the trough.
kt. Due to strong mid-level ridging to the north and west, Oscar
is forecast to turn west-southwestward this morning, which will
bring the center to the coast of northeastern Cuba later this
afternoon. The ridge is expected to be replaced by a developing
mid- to upper-level trough over the western Atlantic in 24-48
hours, which should cause Oscar to turn westward and then northward
while inland over Cuba on Monday. Oscar is then forecast to
accelerate northeastward over the central Bahamas on Tuesday ahead
of the trough.
The steering pattern will look like this by then...
Plenty of strong SW flow will turn this system sharply NE. There should also be an increase in shear, which will induce weakening, as a new extratropical low develops to its N-NE. This new low will likely ingest whatever remnant vorticity Oscar has left.
