EPAC: KRISTY - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

135 kt at 5pm…I guess the NHC heard this forum’s complaints about how they handled Gilma and Kirk lol.

Still wild to see that Kristy is officially stronger than Kirk despite the latter getting a T7.0 on ADT. That SAB T6.5 really ruined its chances.

Not sure this’ll officially make it to a Cat 5, because it almost looks like there are signs of an outer eyewall on vis/IR.

[WaveBreaking]

RAMMB SLIDER is still adamant that Kristy will make a historic landfall over the Bay Area

[Kingarabian]

How quickly it can finish the ERC is key. But so far it's not hurting Dvorak estimates. It's still a T7.0. Just need it to hold for 3 more hours in time for the next SAB/TAFB fixes.

[Kingarabian]

Deep TCs moving west beneath a strong STR can do big things.

[Travorum]

RAMMB SLIDER is still adamant that Kristy will make a historic landfall over the Bay Area

https://i.imgur.com/Sbe69Zm.gif

We will rebuild!

[wx98]

Hot take: I think this will become a powerful C5 (unofficially of course )

Yes…

[Kingarabian]

RAMMB SLIDER is still adamant that Kristy will make a historic landfall over the Bay Area

https://i.imgur.com/Sbe69Zm.gif

Fricking HAARP.

[AnnularCane]

RAMMB SLIDER is still adamant that Kristy will make a historic landfall over the Bay Area

https://i.imgur.com/Sbe69Zm.gif

Amazing how well she's doing over land.

[Travorum]

ADT CI# Now at 7.0:

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2024 Time : 214021 UTC
Lat : 14:11:59 N Lon : 115:44:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 926.9mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +13.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C

[aspen]

ADT CI# Now at 7.0:

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2024 Time : 214021 UTC
Lat : 14:11:59 N Lon : 115:44:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 926.9mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +13.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C

If it succumbs to the EWRC then I think ADT could be enough for a post-season upgrade to Cat 5. An easier upgrade than Kirk despite also getting a T7.0.

[Kingarabian]

Well this frame is pushing T7.5. Certainly higher than a T7.0 because of the CMG but the thickness is questionable. But you can see there might be an ERC going on. Regardless, this is a Cat.5.

[Ubuntwo]

ADT CI# Now at 7.0:

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2024 Time : 214021 UTC
Lat : 14:11:59 N Lon : 115:44:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 926.9mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +13.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C

If it succumbs to the EWRC then I think ADT could be enough for a post-season upgrade to Cat 5. An easier upgrade than Kirk despite also getting a T7.0.

Kirk had a clearer and more rounded-out eye, but it's hard to argue against this convection. On a fast track to a T7.0 fix at 0z barring any convective collapse.

[Travorum]

Really impressive imagery from NOAA21 about 1.5 hours ago. Looks like that outer band is starting to wrap around closer.

 https://x.com/zeb199818/status/1849205171991306555

[Travorum]

AMSR-2 pass as well:

[Kingarabian]

Eye has Cooled. Will be interesting to see if it can bounce back. Has 24 hours of ideal conditions left and 48 hours of decent conditions.

[Travorum]

00z fix T6.5

TXPZ29 KNES 240024
TCSENP

A. 12E (KRISTY)

B. 24/0000Z

C. 14.2N

D. 116.4W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CLOUD-FILLED OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN W
RESULTS IN AN E# OF 6.0 WITH EADJ +0.5 FOR A DT OF 6.5. 2121Z AMSR2
PASS SHOWED SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN N EYEWALL RING. EYE HAS BECOME A BIT
LESS DEFINED LAST SVRL HR. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW VERY GOOD ALQDS. MET=6.0 AND
PT=6.5. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[Travorum]

135kt at the 00z best track. Add it to the list of anticipated TCRs

genesis-num, 032,
EP, 12, 2024102400, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1164W, 135, 928, HU

[Yellow Evan]

ERC is underway given the bursting pattern and eye contraction.


Pretty classical case of a close call of Category 5 but we never got persistent T7.0 that we often see in this basin.

[aspen]

135kt at the 00z best track. Add it to the list of anticipated TCRs

genesis-num, 032,
EP, 12, 2024102400, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1164W, 135, 928, HU

This has a better chance of getting a post-season Cat 5 upgrade than Kirk because it’s already pretty close to one. Meanwhile, Kirk was assessed so low and the NHC usually doesn’t do big post-season upgrades, even though there’s evidence Kirk was at least 10 kt stronger than operationally assessed.

[CrazyC83]

If there is an upgrade, it may be at a non-synoptic time (say, 2100Z) as that is when ADT estimates peaked.