Low Pressure developing in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

NHC has not added a area of interest with a lemon, but I decided to make this thread as there is an actual incipient area of convection in the SW Caribbean. The models are not on a consensus about development nor tracks. Let's see how all transpires in the next few days.

[tropicwatch]

What little vorticity there is, most of it is at the 925mb level.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor5&zoom=&time=

[SFLcane]

[Pasmorade]

https://i.postimg.cc/BbZtLBdn/bbb.gif

Hello, future Patty

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/BbZtLBdn/bbb.gif

Not too shabby..

[Pasmorade]

What's that blob of shear to the east of it?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

GFS has genesis in about 5 days so expect a lemon soon. Other model support much weaker but the GFS has shown this for 10+ runs.

[TomballEd]

GFS has genesis in about 5 days so expect a lemon soon. Other model support much weaker but the GFS has shown this for 10+ runs.

Some support from the other models, Canadian ensembles see it. Euro ensembles still see it, but have backed off just a bit. Perhaps the satellite acquired data from the blowup will make it into the 12Z models. If not, they will be in 18Z models

[Nimbus]

Steering pattern might pull it north over the coast of Nicaragua?

[ChrisH-UK]

Definitely has that look, my guess based on where it is it will move over in to the East Pacific and might become something there.

GOES-16 GeoProxy + Tropical Airmass (that's why it's pink and helps to show the clouds better)

[cycloneye]

No lemon at 2 PM.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[StormPyrate]

You tubers and other social media drubs are using this to seed fear and anxiety to promote clicks
Its sad.
The folks that could be impacted by this do not need that level of disinformation.

[ChrisH-UK]

This isn't the system that you see in the models that is 5 days away if it happens. This is just a large meso cell that pop up all the time in that area often drift into the pacific and become storms there.

[Jr0d]

This isn't the system that you see in the models that is 5 days away if it happens. This is just a large meso cell that pop up all the time in that area often drift into the pacific and become storms there.

Looking at the simulated IR satellite, the GFS and Canadian both suggest this area will be at least part of the potential system that might develop.

That said, I would be surprised in the NHC has a lemon before Monday.

[johngaltfla]

No lemon at 2 PM.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

I'm with you sir. Puerto Rico and the USVI/BVI/Bahamas do not need a hit. Florida took it all for our friends down there.

Let it go into the EPAC.

[Stormlover70]

The pattern with the high seems to indicate the Florida peninsula is safe at this point.

[HurricaneBelle]

18Z GFS shows a Cat 1 hit on Hispanola then moves through the Turks & Caicos before heading OTS southeast of Bermuda

[weeniepatrol]

EPS remains quite flaccid through ten days. Need to see support increasing.

That being said, CPC as of 22 October had a 40-60% chance of development over the region.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghaz/index.php

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) completed a circumnavigation of the global tropics by mid-October with its enhanced phase currently over the Maritime Continent. During the past week, the MJO strengthened based on the RMM index and the 200-hPa velocity potential anomalies. Recently, the anomalous upper-level divergence (convergence) increased over the Maritime Continent (Americas and Africa). Despite destructive interference between the MJO and the emerging weak La Nina during the next week, the GFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement and consistent that a moderate to strong MJO propagates eastward to the western Hemisphere. By early November, the MJO is predicted to shift east from the Americas to Africa and the Indian Ocean.

A pair of tropical cyclones (Nadine and Oscar) formed over the Atlantic basin this past week. Nadine was a short-lived TC and Oscar rapidly became a hurricane as it tracked north of Hispaniola. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble members support a 40 to 60 percent chance of TC development across the Caribbean Sea from October 30 to November 5. Many of these ensemble members depict TC genesis occurring as early as October 29. Regardless of the exact timing, forecast confidence is high that another TC forms across the Caribbean Sea by the end of October. Model guidance is also depicting an elevated chance of a subtropical low pressure system or tropical cyclone forming at a higher latitude over the southwestern Atlantic. This would be consistent with climatology and thus a 20 to 40 percent chance is posted for this region during week-2. From November 6 to 12, a 20 to 40 percent chance of TC development is posed for the Caribbean Sea based on climatology and since the MJO is likely to maintain a favorable large-scale environment for a late season TC through at least mid-November.

[underthwx]

No lemon at 2 PM.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

No lemon.....so...we make lemonade....yall have a great night.....maybe tomorrow the NHC will highlight the NW...or western carribean?...

[xironman]

The ensemble means definitely suggest something by 180