Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 99L)

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aspen
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Re: Potential development over the western Caribbean Sea (10/50)

#61 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 11, 2024 5:16 pm

18z GFS hits Central America before it can become anything more than a mid-grade TS.
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Re: Potential development over the western Caribbean Sea (10/50)

#62 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Mon Nov 11, 2024 5:28 pm

aspen wrote:18z GFS hits Central America before it can become anything more than a mid-grade TS.


The 18z icon brings it quite close but keeps it north and east. If it can avoid making landfall too soon, it could become another powerful late season hurricane.
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Re: Potential development over the SW Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#63 Postby AJC3 » Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:25 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form late this week as the system moves westward into the western
Caribbean Sea. After that, the disturbance is expected to slow down
and meander through the weekend. Interests across the western
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: Potential development over the SW Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#64 Postby wzrgirl1 » Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:31 pm

AJC3 wrote:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form late this week as the system moves westward into the western
Caribbean Sea. After that, the disturbance is expected to slow down
and meander through the weekend. Interests across the western
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Wow! Chances went from 0/20 to 20/60 in less than 24 hours. Not sure I have seen that this season.
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Re: Potential development over the SW Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#65 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Nov 11, 2024 7:43 pm

AJC3 wrote:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form late this week as the system moves westward into the western
Caribbean Sea. After that, the disturbance is expected to slow down
and meander through the weekend. Interests across the western
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


To quote the meme:

"Aw sh** here we go again"
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Re: Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#66 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 11, 2024 7:50 pm

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Re: Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#67 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:10 pm

Video on the potential Caribbean system
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkFHSYQrxjg
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Re: Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#68 Postby ronjon » Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:31 pm

All 3 major model ensembles (Euro, GFS, and CMC) point to high likelihood of Florida Peninsula impact from this system. Still a long way out though at 8-10 days.
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Re: Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#69 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 11, 2024 9:19 pm

:eek:

Image
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Re: Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#70 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Nov 11, 2024 10:04 pm

Inb4 future sara becomes another sub-900 mb "hypercane" in mid-nov
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Re: Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#71 Postby ineedsnow » Mon Nov 11, 2024 10:44 pm

0z Icon 966mb in the Gulf
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Re: Potential development over the SW Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#72 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 11, 2024 11:23 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form late this week as the system moves westward into the western
Caribbean Sea. After that, the disturbance is expected to slow down
and meander through the weekend. Interests across the western
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


To quote the meme:

"Aw sh** here we go again"

Lol
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Re: Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#73 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 11, 2024 11:25 pm


Its percolating out there, tha season continues.
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Re: Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#74 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 11, 2024 11:26 pm

ronjon wrote:All 3 major model ensembles (Euro, GFS, and CMC) point to high likelihood of Florida Peninsula impact from this system. Still a long way out though at 8-10 days.

I sure hope not for yalls sake bro.
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Re: Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#75 Postby MarioProtVI » Mon Nov 11, 2024 11:28 pm

00z GFS just went absolutely bonkers - 930 mb in 144h with Mitch-like ULs and structure. This is legit just November 2020 all over again it seems.
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Re: Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#76 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 11, 2024 11:41 pm

00z gfs with a powerful hurricane into SFL… :double:

Image
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Re: Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#77 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Nov 12, 2024 12:04 am

This is so surreal... If it wasn't for other model support I'd think the GFS is just trolling us at this point. But ICON, CMC, and Euro are all onboard as well. If it's going to form and be bad girl, at least Jefferson Starship wrote the perfect song for it many years ago... Sara, Sara, storms are brewin in your eyes.
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Re: Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#78 Postby zzzh » Tue Nov 12, 2024 12:08 am

If the GFS track is correct, then the 932mb intensity is definitely impossible. Stalling for 72h will probably upwell the SST to 24 degrees before it turns northwest :lol:
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Re: Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#79 Postby MetroMike » Tue Nov 12, 2024 12:11 am

MarioProtVI wrote:00z GFS just went absolutely bonkers - 930 mb in 144h with Mitch-like ULs and structure. This is legit just November 2020 all over again it seems.


November 2020 was nothing compared to what the models show in 2024.
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Re: Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (20/60)

#80 Postby ineedsnow » Tue Nov 12, 2024 12:40 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression will
likely form late this week as the system moves westward into the
western Caribbean Sea. After that, the disturbance is expected to
slow down and meander through the weekend. Interests across the
western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
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