Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 99L)

[aspen]

18z GFS hits Central America before it can become anything more than a mid-grade TS.

[WeatherBoy2000]

18z GFS hits Central America before it can become anything more than a mid-grade TS.

The 18z icon brings it quite close but keeps it north and east. If it can avoid making landfall too soon, it could become another powerful late season hurricane.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form late this week as the system moves westward into the western
Caribbean Sea. After that, the disturbance is expected to slow down
and meander through the weekend. Interests across the western
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[wzrgirl1]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form late this week as the system moves westward into the western
Caribbean Sea. After that, the disturbance is expected to slow down
and meander through the weekend. Interests across the western
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Wow! Chances went from 0/20 to 20/60 in less than 24 hours. Not sure I have seen that this season.

[johngaltfla]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form late this week as the system moves westward into the western
Caribbean Sea. After that, the disturbance is expected to slow down
and meander through the weekend. Interests across the western
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

To quote the meme:

"Aw sh** here we go again"

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/adrianlinares28/status/1856135189883150838

[Hurricane Mike]

Video on the potential Caribbean system
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkFHSYQrxjg

[ronjon]

All 3 major model ensembles (Euro, GFS, and CMC) point to high likelihood of Florida Peninsula impact from this system. Still a long way out though at 8-10 days.

[SFLcane]

[Hurricane2022]

Inb4 future sara becomes another sub-900 mb "hypercane" in mid-nov

[ineedsnow]

0z Icon 966mb in the Gulf

[underthwx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form late this week as the system moves westward into the western
Caribbean Sea. After that, the disturbance is expected to slow down
and meander through the weekend. Interests across the western
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

To quote the meme:

"Aw sh** here we go again"

Lol

[underthwx]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/c18Fkqnc/IMG-9746.gif

Its percolating out there, tha season continues.

[underthwx]

All 3 major model ensembles (Euro, GFS, and CMC) point to high likelihood of Florida Peninsula impact from this system. Still a long way out though at 8-10 days.

I sure hope not for yalls sake bro.

[MarioProtVI]

00z GFS just went absolutely bonkers - 930 mb in 144h with Mitch-like ULs and structure. This is legit just November 2020 all over again it seems.

[SFLcane]

00z gfs with a powerful hurricane into SFL…

[SouthFLTropics]

This is so surreal... If it wasn't for other model support I'd think the GFS is just trolling us at this point. But ICON, CMC, and Euro are all onboard as well. If it's going to form and be bad girl, at least Jefferson Starship wrote the perfect song for it many years ago... Sara, Sara, storms are brewin in your eyes.

[zzzh]

If the GFS track is correct, then the 932mb intensity is definitely impossible. Stalling for 72h will probably upwell the SST to 24 degrees before it turns northwest

[MetroMike]

00z GFS just went absolutely bonkers - 930 mb in 144h with Mitch-like ULs and structure. This is legit just November 2020 all over again it seems.

November 2020 was nothing compared to what the models show in 2024.

[ineedsnow]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression will
likely form late this week as the system moves westward into the
western Caribbean Sea. After that, the disturbance is expected to
slow down and meander through the weekend. Interests across the
western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.