ATL: SARA - Models

[Jxdama]

i think the 12z euro/cmc may be more realistic based on climatology, not good for central america, but those models avoid a florida landfall....

[aspen]

18z GFS is yet another consecutive run where 99L misses Central America by a hair.

[caneseddy]

18z GFS is yet another consecutive run where 99L misses Central America by a hair.

Yep and because of that, it's allowing 99L/Sara to bomb out..down to 928 mb so far at 120 hrs

[Kazmit]

How low can you go?

[SouthFLTropics]

The consistency on the GFS through 154 hours is unreal. GFS is locked in on the same solution.

[caneseddy]

Shooting the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf at 946 mb..starting the turn towards the Florida Peninsula at 174 hrs...949 mb..looks like Big Bend area is target this run.

[WaveBreaking]

18z GFS Sim-satellite:

[chaser1]

i think the 12z euro/cmc may be more realistic based on climatology, not good for central america, but those models avoid a florida landfall....

That is not correct. 12Z Euro landfalls does make Florida landfall at 204 hr's between Naples and Cape Sable as a 980 mb hurricane.

[AutoPenalti]

Is the trough weaker in this run? I can’t see the loop.

[chaser1]

Hey Sara,, watcha doin'? There's nothing left to wreck in Cedar Key/Perry/Suwannee

[StPeteMike]

Is the trough weaker in this run? I can’t see the loop.

I think it’s slower this run compared to previous runs.

[chris_fit]

Cat 3 into ceder key it looks like on the 18z GFS

[chaser1]

Is the trough weaker in this run? I can’t see the loop.

Hard to tell. The storm reaches the W Cuba tip at the same forecast time. Best I can tell is that the trough might be a tad slower dropping south/east. The only other thing which was more obvious was higher mid level heights east of N. Fla then the prior 12Z run. Looks to be the primary cause for a more south to north motion than the last two model runs.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Been following and tracking storms since I was a kid, by no mean's am I a pro. That said I don't see Sara getting that far north, it will all come down to the strength and speed of the front. For the record I wish it would just die, don't wish this storm on anyone let alone near me.

[ronjon]

Have a hard time believing a 970 mb cane into Cedar Key during 3rd week of November per 18z GFS. Seems S FL to the Keys would be more likely destination given the time of year.

[SFLcane]

Yea I just can’t see any TC getting that far north in mid Nov.

[chaser1]

Assuming that 18Z runs for the regional models (and that initialization is likely to be off), what time will they typically drop?

[Travorum]

Holy



The cross section NW-SE has 850mb winds in excess of 145kts, so surface winds greater than 130kts:

[aspen]

Unfortunately it seems like no hurricane model runs this cycle for some reason. Darn.

[canes92]

Oh give me a break. Another threat for us in FL.