WPAC: MAN-YI - Post-Tropical

[WaveBreaking]

[WaveBreaking]

Stadium effect in full force this morning

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Crazy to think this was the same storm expected to dissipate in the open Pacific. Would this be one of the biggest overperformances of any TC?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

[Hayabusa]

JMA violent

T2424(Man-yi)
Issued at 2024/11/16 01:05 UTC
Analysis at 11/16 00 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N12°35′ (12.6°)
E126°35′ (126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 920 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 130 km (70 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area E390 km (210 NM)
W280 km (150 NM)

[Hayabusa]

Super

25W MAN-YI 241116 0000 12.5N 126.7E WPAC 130 934

[Hayabusa]

Eye temp in the +20C range

2024NOV15 220000 5.5 958.9 102.0 5.5 5.7 6.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.16 -74.84 EYE 19 IR 55.0 12.35 -127.05 ARCHER HIM-9 21.5
2024NOV15 223000 5.7 954.6 107.2 5.7 5.9 6.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.18 -74.67 EYE 21 IR 55.0 12.40 -126.95 ARCHER HIM-9 21.6
2024NOV15 230000 5.7 954.6 107.2 5.7 6.0 6.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 21.28 -74.30 EYE 23 IR 55.0 12.45 -126.86 ARCHER HIM-9 21.7
2024NOV15 233000 5.8 952.4 109.8 5.8 6.1 6.8 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.55 -74.08 EYE 22 IR 55.0 12.49 -126.79 ARCHER HIM-9 21.8
2024NOV16 000000 5.9 950.2 112.4 5.9 6.3 6.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 22.31 -74.12 EYE 22 IR 55.0 12.56 -126.69 ARCHER HIM-9 21.9
2024NOV16 003000 6.0 948.0 115.0 6.0 6.4 6.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 22.21 -74.19 EYE 22 IR 55.0 12.61 -126.60 ARCHER HIM-9 22.0
2024NOV16 010000 6.1 945.9 117.4 6.1 6.3 6.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 22.57 -74.45 EYE 22 IR 55.0 12.66 -126.51 ARCHER HIM-9 22.2

[Hurricane2022]

Looking catastrophic and beautiful right now. JTWC should go with 150 - 155 kt in the next warning.

[ElectricStorm]

With an eye temp that warm I think 130kts is too low, probably at least 140kts now

[mrbagyo]

no way in hell Man-yi is just a 130 knots super typhoon.
This is one of the most symmetrical typhoon I've ever seen.

It's uber hot here in Baler, Aurora

[WaveBreaking]

Reminds me a bit of Zeb (1998)

[MarioProtVI]

Yet another underestimated STY/missed C5 by JTWC and Dvoark. Idk why their analysis is underestimating this by at least 10-15 kt. If recon had flown into both pinhole Usagi and Man-yi right now they’d very likely find Cat 5s in both of them, with Usagi probably being the stronger one.

[Subtrop]

TPPN12 PGTW 160318

A. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (MAN-YI)

B. 16/0230Z

C. 12.86N

D. 126.22E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0. MET
YIELDS 6.0. PT YIELDS 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


EL-NAZLY

[Ptarmigan]

no way in hell Man-yi is just a 130 knots super typhoon.
This is one of the most symmetrical typhoon I've ever seen.

It's uber hot here in Baler, Aurora

Looks to me like a 145 to 155 knot typhoon.

Philippines cannot catch a break from typhoons.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/zeb199818/status/1857646173038981469


 https://x.com/zeb199818/status/1857650993544184193

[Ed_2001]

With Man-yi 2024 just quietly sneaked into a somewhat exclusive club mostly dominated by above average years -- the first since 2018 to see at least 6 (arguably 7) STY's. Pretty telling that none of the years so far with 6+ STY's generated less than 262 units of ACE.

(wikipedia coloring scheme does seen to be a bit down-skewed, showing ~275 as above average and ~190 as near average)

[Teban54]

[Hayabusa]

Cat 5

25W MAN-YI 241116 0600 13.2N 125.6E WPAC 140 923

[mrbagyo]

Cirrus clouds streaking all over the sky here in Baler this afternoon.

[doomhaMwx]

SAR scan at ~21Z... 124 kts.




Satellite image at that time: