2024 WPAC Season

[dexterlabio]

Pretty surprised that the 4 consecutive years streak of below average activity in WPAC will end in a La Niña year.

If the typhoon season ends with Man-Yi, this year is still well below average ACE-wise.

[Hayabusa]

Looks to be a break for the next week but the end of November and upcoming December could be to watch.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Back in October, Eric Webb mentioned the possibility of a backloaded season emerging and sadly we've borne the brunt of it.

This season reminds me of 2019. Started out full of weak storms, but quantity/quality went up by the late season. November that year had six (JTWC) typhoons in a row, and had two cat 3+ storms in December. Now, we've seen three super typhoons this month alone.

Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Northern Mindanao may have to keep an extra eye out for activity.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

 https://x.com/BackpirchCrew/status/1858422515317559393

[Hayabusa]

Latest GFS now hinting at tropical development coming late November.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/jnmet/status/1858491906902151506

[weeniepatrol]

Typhoons developing and bombing out near the Philippines, as oppose to well out at sea and being long-trackers, seems consistent with a La Nina base state, no?

[Hayabusa]

Typhoons developing and bombing out near the Philippines, as oppose to well out at sea and being long-trackers, seems consistent with a La Nina base state, no?

Except maybe Man-yi, was considered a long tracker and yes it only bombed out when it was over the Philippine Sea.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Typhoons developing and bombing out near the Philippines, as oppose to well out at sea and being long-trackers, seems consistent with a La Nina base state, no?

Very true. In a more favorable base state, Man-yi would have bombed out before Guam, or executed a Mangkhut (held onto intensity for days).

[Pasmorade]

The GFS seems to be forecasting two tropical storms hitting the Philippines in the next two weeks. However, I'm not too sure about the likelihood seeing that the CPC isn't forecasting favorable conditions in the West Pacific till mid-December.

[Hayabusa]

Nothing on the Euro or its AI version, EPS is nothing remarkable. I'm leaning on the AI version on genesis than the traditional GFS, though according to the BOM an equatorial RW is forecast to arrive in a week between 140-160E, so maybe that's why the GFS is hyping things up...

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro 00Z showing TD.

[Hayabusa]

EC-AIFS now showing genesis but beyond 10 days

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro