2024 WPAC Season

[dexterlabio]

Pretty surprised that the 4 consecutive years streak of below average activity in WPAC will end in a La Niña year.

If the typhoon season ends with Man-Yi, this year is still well below average ACE-wise.

[Hayabusa]

Looks to be a break for the next week but the end of November and upcoming December could be to watch.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Back in October, Eric Webb mentioned the possibility of a backloaded season emerging and sadly we've borne the brunt of it.

This season reminds me of 2019. Started out full of weak storms, but quantity/quality went up by the late season. November that year had six (JTWC) typhoons in a row, and had two cat 3+ storms in December. Now, we've seen three super typhoons this month alone.

Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Northern Mindanao may have to keep an extra eye out for activity.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

 https://x.com/BackpirchCrew/status/1858422515317559393

[Hayabusa]

Latest GFS now hinting at tropical development coming late November.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/jnmet/status/1858491906902151506

[weeniepatrol]

Typhoons developing and bombing out near the Philippines, as oppose to well out at sea and being long-trackers, seems consistent with a La Nina base state, no?

[Hayabusa]

Typhoons developing and bombing out near the Philippines, as oppose to well out at sea and being long-trackers, seems consistent with a La Nina base state, no?

Except maybe Man-yi, was considered a long tracker and yes it only bombed out when it was over the Philippine Sea.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Typhoons developing and bombing out near the Philippines, as oppose to well out at sea and being long-trackers, seems consistent with a La Nina base state, no?

Very true. In a more favorable base state, Man-yi would have bombed out before Guam, or executed a Mangkhut (held onto intensity for days).

[Pasmorade]

The GFS seems to be forecasting two tropical storms hitting the Philippines in the next two weeks. However, I'm not too sure about the likelihood seeing that the CPC isn't forecasting favorable conditions in the West Pacific till mid-December.

[Hayabusa]

Nothing on the Euro or its AI version, EPS is nothing remarkable. I'm leaning on the AI version on genesis than the traditional GFS, though according to the BOM an equatorial RW is forecast to arrive in a week between 140-160E, so maybe that's why the GFS is hyping things up...

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro 00Z showing TD.

[Hayabusa]

EC-AIFS now showing genesis but beyond 10 days

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro

[MarioProtVI]

JTWC BT has been released, with some decent changes:

* Gaemi no change
* Yagi upped slightly to 145 kt / 907 mb
* Krathon upped slightly to 135 kt / 922 mb
* Kong-Rey upgraded to Cat 5, 140 kt / 915 mb
* Yinxing, Man-yi and Usagi no change

Of the storms listed I still believe Usagi and Gaemi were rated too low, the former being due to its ERI and small pinhole eye which was consistent with a C5 (145 kt is a good estimate) and Gaemi was definitely stronger although there is a high degree of uncertainty given its monsoonal nature. C5 of 140 kt is still applicable here but I would have listed it as an asynoptic peak given the small eye was extremely unstable, and more weight could be given to a 135 kt estimate.

[Hayabusa]

Despite an active late season, 2024 still can't beat the ACE of 2023 (268) and 2023 is currently the season with the highest ACE of the 2020s decade, and the highest since 2019...

[Ulf]

Despite an active late season, 2024 still can't beat the ACE of 2023 (268) and 2023 is currently the season with the highest ACE of the 2020s decade, and the highest since 2019...

2023's ACE was greatly inflated by major long trackers in a season that otherwise hugely underperforms on numbers of both named storms and typhoons. Very abnormal especially for a very strong El Niño year that resulted in a very active EPAC season.

Not sure what is going on with WPAC in general since 2020.