Texas Winter 2024-2025

Winter Weather Discussion

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Stratton23
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#461 Postby Stratton23 » Mon Dec 16, 2024 3:04 pm

The GEFS and EPS both agree the MJO will be moving into phase 7 at the very end of december and start of january
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#462 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 16, 2024 3:19 pm

Stratton23 wrote:The GEFS and EPS both agree the MJO will be moving into phase 7 at the very end of december and start of january

If December cannot produce, then February will
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#463 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 16, 2024 3:36 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
snownado wrote:DFW's overacheiving by several degrees again today. As of 1pm, it's 76*F.

This is disgusting. At least some showers are popping up on the radar.


Front is moving through Denton and NW Tarrant counties. May not be huge temp drop but dewpoints will initially.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#464 Postby wxman57 » Mon Dec 16, 2024 4:18 pm

I think we need to change the title of this thread to "Heat Miser's Winter". Looking like temps in the 80s for Christmas Day. Good biking weather. Last week, there was an article in the Chronicle where they discussed the ERCOT's meteorologist observation that the pattern is similar to prior to the 2021 snow/ice/freeze event. He is predicting a major event this winter. Not in December, though.

:firedevil:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2024121612/ecmwf_T2ma_us_38.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024121612/gfs_T2ma_us_38.png
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#465 Postby snownado » Mon Dec 16, 2024 4:28 pm

Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:
snownado wrote:DFW's overacheiving by several degrees again today. As of 1pm, it's 76*F.

This is disgusting. At least some showers are popping up on the radar.


Front is moving through Denton and NW Tarrant counties. May not be huge temp drop but dewpoints will initially.


DFW is gettting slammed with a strong t'storm that has popped up along the front.

Just getting the cirrus blow off here, but it's suddenly gotten quite dark.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#466 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Dec 16, 2024 4:45 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:The GEFS and EPS both agree the MJO will be moving into phase 7 at the very end of december and start of january

If December cannot produce, then February will


February 2025 or just any February in the future. Haha
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#467 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 16, 2024 5:05 pm

snownado wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:This is disgusting. At least some showers are popping up on the radar.


Front is moving through Denton and NW Tarrant counties. May not be huge temp drop but dewpoints will initially.


DFW is gettting slammed with a strong t'storm that has popped up along the front.

Just getting the cirrus blow off here, but it's suddenly gotten quite dark.


Yeah it's very dark out here. Quite the line has formed, when was the last time a front was accompanied by a decent line of storms?!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#468 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Dec 16, 2024 5:20 pm

It's hailing here in Las Colinas at my daughter's school.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#469 Postby snownado » Mon Dec 16, 2024 5:51 pm

Ntxw wrote:
snownado wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Front is moving through Denton and NW Tarrant counties. May not be huge temp drop but dewpoints will initially.


DFW is gettting slammed with a strong t'storm that has popped up along the front.

Just getting the cirrus blow off here, but it's suddenly gotten quite dark.


Yeah it's very dark out here. Quite the line has formed, when was the last time a front was accompanied by a decent line of storms?!


Got nothing more than light rain / sprinkles here and the faintest rumbles of thunder occasionally.

Congrats to those who are lucky enough to end up under the storm cells.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#470 Postby Stratton23 » Mon Dec 16, 2024 6:14 pm

GFS brings back the alaskan ridge by the 29th, so just before new years
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#471 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Dec 16, 2024 6:27 pm

Looks like the storm sw of Irving is gonna give it one more try to produce some severe weather. Feels noticeably warmer here in Dallas than it did 30 min ago and lightning activity has really increased. Seems there’s still some juice in this atmosphere after all.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#472 Postby JayDT » Mon Dec 16, 2024 6:33 pm

It got really dark out of no where, and now the lightning is almost nonstop.. :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#473 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 16, 2024 6:46 pm

Stratton23 wrote:GFS brings back the alaskan ridge by the 29th, so just before new years


Gosh I hope so because the GFS has near record highs after Christmas here :spam: when will it ever end
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#neversummer

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#474 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Dec 16, 2024 6:50 pm

Just drove home from Irving and man that rain was heavy. Quite the light show as well. Now it's Grand Prairie's turn
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#475 Postby Golfisnteasy7575 » Mon Dec 16, 2024 6:57 pm

Brent wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:GFS brings back the alaskan ridge by the 29th, so just before new years


Gosh I hope so because the GFS has near record highs after Christmas here :spam: when will it ever end


This far out, gefs and eps are your friends in determining what may or may not happen. Op runs change alot
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#476 Postby starsfan65 » Mon Dec 16, 2024 6:58 pm

Brent wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:GFS brings back the alaskan ridge by the 29th, so just before new years


Gosh I hope so because the GFS has near record highs after Christmas here :spam: when will it ever end

Brent it ain't going to be that warm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#477 Postby Stratton23 » Mon Dec 16, 2024 7:00 pm

Brent Just trying to bring a little hope haha, though it does reflect what the ensembles are showing, if we hit 80 on christmas, im for sure going full on mike tyson with mother nature!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#478 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 16, 2024 7:16 pm

Distance is insane, DFW International got 1.38 inches while Love Field got 0.36 inches per TexMesonet

Image
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SJXQK.png
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#479 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 16, 2024 7:17 pm

1.32" of rainfall for DFW airport. Could've been 13.2" of snow!

On this day in 1983 there was 2" of snow at the airport in what kick started that deep freeze through the end of the month. In 1989 a record low of 12F also happened on this date.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#480 Postby wxman22 » Mon Dec 16, 2024 8:05 pm

Texas storm chasers posted a video of the supercell producing a funnel cloud/mesocyclone near DFW airport, i think the storm should have had a warning on it.
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