Texas Winter 2024-2025
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
The GEFS and EPS both agree the MJO will be moving into phase 7 at the very end of december and start of january
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Stratton23 wrote:The GEFS and EPS both agree the MJO will be moving into phase 7 at the very end of december and start of january
If December cannot produce, then February will
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
gpsnowman wrote:snownado wrote:DFW's overacheiving by several degrees again today. As of 1pm, it's 76*F.
This is disgusting. At least some showers are popping up on the radar.
Front is moving through Denton and NW Tarrant counties. May not be huge temp drop but dewpoints will initially.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
I think we need to change the title of this thread to "Heat Miser's Winter". Looking like temps in the 80s for Christmas Day. Good biking weather. Last week, there was an article in the Chronicle where they discussed the ERCOT's meteorologist observation that the pattern is similar to prior to the 2021 snow/ice/freeze event. He is predicting a major event this winter. Not in December, though.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2024121612/ecmwf_T2ma_us_38.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024121612/gfs_T2ma_us_38.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2024121612/ecmwf_T2ma_us_38.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024121612/gfs_T2ma_us_38.png
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Ntxw wrote:gpsnowman wrote:snownado wrote:DFW's overacheiving by several degrees again today. As of 1pm, it's 76*F.
This is disgusting. At least some showers are popping up on the radar.
Front is moving through Denton and NW Tarrant counties. May not be huge temp drop but dewpoints will initially.
DFW is gettting slammed with a strong t'storm that has popped up along the front.
Just getting the cirrus blow off here, but it's suddenly gotten quite dark.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Iceresistance wrote:Stratton23 wrote:The GEFS and EPS both agree the MJO will be moving into phase 7 at the very end of december and start of january
If December cannot produce, then February will
February 2025 or just any February in the future. Haha
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
snownado wrote:Ntxw wrote:gpsnowman wrote:This is disgusting. At least some showers are popping up on the radar.
Front is moving through Denton and NW Tarrant counties. May not be huge temp drop but dewpoints will initially.
DFW is gettting slammed with a strong t'storm that has popped up along the front.
Just getting the cirrus blow off here, but it's suddenly gotten quite dark.
Yeah it's very dark out here. Quite the line has formed, when was the last time a front was accompanied by a decent line of storms?!
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Ntxw wrote:snownado wrote:Ntxw wrote:
Front is moving through Denton and NW Tarrant counties. May not be huge temp drop but dewpoints will initially.
DFW is gettting slammed with a strong t'storm that has popped up along the front.
Just getting the cirrus blow off here, but it's suddenly gotten quite dark.
Yeah it's very dark out here. Quite the line has formed, when was the last time a front was accompanied by a decent line of storms?!
Got nothing more than light rain / sprinkles here and the faintest rumbles of thunder occasionally.
Congrats to those who are lucky enough to end up under the storm cells.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
GFS brings back the alaskan ridge by the 29th, so just before new years
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Looks like the storm sw of Irving is gonna give it one more try to produce some severe weather. Feels noticeably warmer here in Dallas than it did 30 min ago and lightning activity has really increased. Seems there’s still some juice in this atmosphere after all.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
It got really dark out of no where, and now the lightning is almost nonstop.. 

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Stratton23 wrote:GFS brings back the alaskan ridge by the 29th, so just before new years
Gosh I hope so because the GFS has near record highs after Christmas here

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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Just drove home from Irving and man that rain was heavy. Quite the light show as well. Now it's Grand Prairie's turn
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Brent wrote:Stratton23 wrote:GFS brings back the alaskan ridge by the 29th, so just before new years
Gosh I hope so because the GFS has near record highs after Christmas herewhen will it ever end
This far out, gefs and eps are your friends in determining what may or may not happen. Op runs change alot
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- starsfan65
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Brent wrote:Stratton23 wrote:GFS brings back the alaskan ridge by the 29th, so just before new years
Gosh I hope so because the GFS has near record highs after Christmas herewhen will it ever end
Brent it ain't going to be that warm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Brent Just trying to bring a little hope haha, though it does reflect what the ensembles are showing, if we hit 80 on christmas, im for sure going full on mike tyson with mother nature!
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Distance is insane, DFW International got 1.38 inches while Love Field got 0.36 inches per TexMesonet

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SJXQK.png

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SJXQK.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
1.32" of rainfall for DFW airport. Could've been 13.2" of snow!
On this day in 1983 there was 2" of snow at the airport in what kick started that deep freeze through the end of the month. In 1989 a record low of 12F also happened on this date.
On this day in 1983 there was 2" of snow at the airport in what kick started that deep freeze through the end of the month. In 1989 a record low of 12F also happened on this date.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- wxman22
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Texas storm chasers posted a video of the supercell producing a funnel cloud/mesocyclone near DFW airport, i think the storm should have had a warning on it.
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