Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

This is the entire post from Ponder weather btw(DFW based so no east coast crap). There's another post from a Denver page talking about a big pattern change around New Year's

[Throckmorton]

This is the entire post from Ponder weather btw(DFW based so no east coast crap). There's another post from a Denver page talking about a big pattern change around New Year's

https://i.ibb.co/m8mcPRF/Screenshot-20241220-183454-Facebook.png

If only.... The map progs a Canadian warming.

[Stratton23]

Thats a stretch of the PV, thats not canadian warming, its going to get cold, not warm

[Stratton23]

Thats some bitterly cold air on the 00z GFS, swinging the SPV to our side of the globe as a result of the SSWE, im getting december 2022 vibes looking at the setup in the ensembles ( may not be bone dry though)

[Cpv17]

Thats some bitterly cold air on the 00z GFS, swinging the SPV to our side of the globe as a result of the SSWE, im getting december 2022 vibes looking at the setup in the ensembles ( may not be bone dry though)

Need a -NAO to slow things down.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 GFS does have a -NAO, its centered over greenland

[Throckmorton]

Thats a stretch of the PV, thats not canadian warming, its going to get cold, not warm

The anticyclonic circulation on the left side of the map is a Canadian warming.

[Throckmorton]

A sudden stratospheric warming involves pronounced warming at the 10 mb level and a reversal of the winds so that an anticyclonic circulation wholly replaces the normal cyclonic circulation of the stratospheric polar vortex.

None of the models I've seen prog a SSW, so far at least.

The 00Z 12/21 run of the ECMWF shows for 00Z 12/31 a major Canadian warming covering Canada and the U. S. For that time stamp, surface temperatures for the eastern two-thirds of the U. S. are progged to be 10-20° F above the ERA5 climate for 1991-2020. EPS is similar.

The GEFS shows an even more intense Canadian warming for the same time stamp.

A stretched SPV does indeed happen over the Atlantic Ocean and the far eastern U. S. during that time. Surface temperatures are affected there (although record breaking should be confined to Florida).

[Stratton23]

Throckmorton i guess we will see, but this canadian warming will virtually have no impact on the US, but good for studiying purposes since thats a term that hasnt been used alot in the weather world

[Throckmorton]

Throckmorton i guess we will see, but this canadian warming will virtually have no impact on the US, but good for studiying purposes since thats a term that hasnt been used alot in the weather world

It's a well known phenomenon since at least the 1980s according to Google Scholar. We had one last year.

[HockeyTx82]

Throckmorton i guess we will see, but this canadian warming will virtually have no impact on the US, but good for studiying purposes since thats a term that hasnt been used alot in the weather world

It's a well known phenomenon since at least the 1980s according to Google Scholar. We had one last year.

A Canadian warming event, also known as a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), is a phenomenon where temperatures in the stratosphere (the second major layer of Earth's atmosphere) over the polar region rise rapidly by several tens of degrees Celsius over a few days.

Canadian warming events occur in the Northern Hemisphere's stratosphere, usually from mid-November to early December.

These events are part of a broader category of stratospheric warming events, which can be classified into major, minor, and final warmings based on the extent of the temperature increase and wind reversal.

Canadian warming events have been known since the early 1950s, with the first recorded event observed in January 1952 by German meteorologist Richard Scherhag. Since then, they have been studied extensively, and their occurrence is closely monitored due to their potential impact on weather patterns and climate.

[wxman22]

LOL...

[Ntxw]

Staff is definitely aware.

Lets get back to weather discussion. GFS is advertising a cold air mass to move into the US shortly after the new year. It would fit into the narrative the ensembles have been showing in their longer range. Does appear with the MJO, EPO all aligning for a more sustained cold period come January.

There is actually very cold anomalous air building over the Arctic circle this week and if that makes its way into Canada then there is legit chance we will be seeing an outbreak in the coming weeks.

[Stratton23]

And theres the first GFS fantasy fun run of the season!

[Brent]

The cold on the GFS

This isn't even the timeframe everyone is hyping about the SSW

[Ntxw]

Canadian is setting it up too.

Will be interesting to watch the bitter cold air mass swirl across the Arctic this week dip near Siberia and return to North America. That would pack quite the punch if delivered.

[Ntxw]

Goldilocks of blocking. Pacific and Alaskan Ridge delivering cold, Greenland High to lock it in.

[Cpv17]

Goldilocks of blocking. Pacific and Alaskan Ridge delivering cold, Greenland High to lock it in.

https://i.imgur.com/3RckxRw.png

This is what I like to see over any model run that’s in fantasy land.

[Gotwood]

LOL...

https://i.ibb.co/t46zGL5/prateptype-cat-imp-us-sc-4.png

https://i.ibb.co/WnWN6nb/prateptype-cat-imp-us-sc-5.png

https://i.ibb.co/VNTkTwb/prateptype-cat-imp-us-sc-6.png

Please sweet Jesus let this verify.

[Brent]

Looks like the EPS temperature range starts to tank around NYE here