Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Harp.1]

GFS has a NW dry flow… ugh

[Wthrfan]

I was sitting here bemoaning the lack of winter weather and wondering if it really was that abnormal. Three of the top 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since 2021 in OKC.
https://www.weather.gov/oun/climate-records

[Cpv17]

GFS has a NW dry flow… ugh

I’m honestly beginning to think we’ll have to wait till the second half of January or February for some fun. With what I’m seeing today, it seems to be going that way.

[Stratton23]

Im encouraged by the afternoon ensembles today, all three ensemble groups have actually made a noticeable and somewhat significant shift west to WSW with the long wave trough, that can make a huge difference down the road

[orangeblood]

About a week ago, the GFS and EC were forecasting cross-Polar flow to develop next week. This would drive some very cold air into Canada. Now, models have given up on the cross-Polar flow. Thus, no big Arctic air push south.

This is a really cold 5h signature for NA, the coldest air on the globe is coming to our part of the world for January. Now is it directed directly into the southern plains like Feb 2021? no but there’s plenty of cold to tap into now with any S/W moving across

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1735257600/1736402400-rRm17OMG0HI.png

Looks more like January 1985, calmer version. If you minus the snow that occurred, the cold that came initially we were only on the fringes. It was way colder east of the MS (Reagan inauguration.) It was towards the end of the month and early February that the single digits came in a more western blast.

-8F in Atlanta and 10F in Dallas.

https://i.imgur.com/rzrtmCY.gif

Late Jan/early Feb blast. 7F in Dallas with snow, while Atlanta got to 19F.

https://i.imgur.com/HIZdYKx.gif

Yep, bulls eye in mid Atlantic thru the 10th at least… but setup has a lot more potential than past 2 winters

[Cpv17]

Im encouraged by the afternoon ensembles today, all three ensemble groups have actually made a noticeable and somewhat significant shift west to WSW with the long wave trough, that can make a huge difference down the road

I noticed that last nights 0z EPS came in about 2-4 degrees colder for Texas than yesterday’s 12z EPS for the 10-15 day period. This is what I was referring to in my earlier post.

[Ntxw]

Im encouraged by the afternoon ensembles today, all three ensemble groups have actually made a noticeable and somewhat significant shift west to WSW with the long wave trough, that can make a huge difference down the road

Makes a difference. Though nearly 300 hours out some crazy contrast on the Euro. Highs in the 20s for Texarkana and the northeastern part of the state while it's 50s and 60s west of I-35 on the 8th-9th.

[Gotwood]

Euro and GFS are starting to align looks like the +PNA will win out this go around. Hopefully end of the month changes.

[Brent]

Euro and GFS are starting to align looks like the +PNA will win out this go around. Hopefully end of the month changes.

Yup still looks better east of here through the usual fantasy land

Maybe in 2-3 weeks it'll be our turn. Maybe

[Stratton23]

Gotwood not so fast, dont put much stock into the operational models this far out, todays GEFS/ GEPS have trended back west with the trough due to a weaker + PNA ridge, this is still over 11 days out, the upper level pattern can change, today ensembles runs have made good trends

[Brent]

Gotwood not so fast, dont put much stock into the operational models this far out, todays GEFS/ GEPS have trended back west with the trough due to a weaker + PNA ridge, this is still over 11 days out, the upper level pattern can change, today ensembles runs have made good trends

As long as we keep a signal around mid January

It better not get pushed back again

[Cpv17]

Gotwood not so fast, dont put much stock into the operational models this far out, todays GEFS/ GEPS have trended back west with the trough due to a weaker + PNA ridge, this is still over 11 days out, the upper level pattern can change, today ensembles runs have made good trends

As long as we keep a signal around mid January

It better not get pushed back again

Middle of January towards the middle of February might be fun around here. A good 4-5 week window.

[Cpv17]

My biggest concern is that the other teleconnections aren’t gonna line up properly when the PNA decides to finally go neutral.

[Brent]

I will say the EPS looks as good as it has here through January 10th for at least a flizzard or maybe a dusting ish

That would help things along if it actually happens. There's been virtually no snow even in Kansas yet. We need a good snow pack north of us

January 1985 does appear to have had a little snow here during the extremely cold DC inauguration before the fun began in Texas a week or so later

[Stratton23]

Brent yeah the EPS snowfall signal actually looks pretty decent for texas and oklahoma lol

[Brent]

Brent yeah the EPS snowfall signal actually looks pretty decent for texas and oklahoma lol

Best signal still around the 7th although the one right after New Year's isn't totally dead yet

[snownado]

I was sitting here bemoaning the lack of winter weather and wondering if it really was that abnormal. Three of the top 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since 2021 in OKC.
https://www.weather.gov/oun/climate-records

Speaking of, DFW may be on track for a top 10 warmest December this year, lol...

[Yukon Cornelius]

One positive thing that I’ve noticed, at least up here, are highs and lows have been running around 5 degrees cooler than what’s being forecasted.

[Brent]

One positive thing that I’ve noticed, at least up here, are highs and lows have been running around 5 degrees cooler than what’s being forecasted.

Yeah weve been way off all week

You would think eventually that will mean something. In theory

[Ntxw]

On a side note, interestingly enough, the system tomorrow might be another overperformer for the eastern part of the state similar to the last 2 in terms of qpf and storms. We've had a couple short term systems that have dug further south/stronger but in a mild regime.



Just a caution following the chaotic flow of these digging systems into the new year. No idea how they will play out in real time beyond 3 days.