Texas Winter 2024-2025
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
I was sitting here bemoaning the lack of winter weather and wondering if it really was that abnormal. Three of the top 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since 2021 in OKC.
https://www.weather.gov/oun/climate-records
https://www.weather.gov/oun/climate-records
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Harp.1 wrote:GFS has a NW dry flow… ugh
I’m honestly beginning to think we’ll have to wait till the second half of January or February for some fun. With what I’m seeing today, it seems to be going that way.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Im encouraged by the afternoon ensembles today, all three ensemble groups have actually made a noticeable and somewhat significant shift west to WSW with the long wave trough, that can make a huge difference down the road
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Ntxw wrote:orangeblood wrote:wxman57 wrote:About a week ago, the GFS and EC were forecasting cross-Polar flow to develop next week. This would drive some very cold air into Canada. Now, models have given up on the cross-Polar flow. Thus, no big Arctic air push south.
This is a really cold 5h signature for NA, the coldest air on the globe is coming to our part of the world for January. Now is it directed directly into the southern plains like Feb 2021? no but there’s plenty of cold to tap into now with any S/W moving across
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1735257600/1736402400-rRm17OMG0HI.png
Looks more like January 1985, calmer version. If you minus the snow that occurred, the cold that came initially we were only on the fringes. It was way colder east of the MS (Reagan inauguration.) It was towards the end of the month and early February that the single digits came in a more western blast.
-8F in Atlanta and 10F in Dallas.
https://i.imgur.com/rzrtmCY.gif
Late Jan/early Feb blast. 7F in Dallas with snow, while Atlanta got to 19F.
https://i.imgur.com/HIZdYKx.gif
Yep, bulls eye in mid Atlantic thru the 10th at least… but setup has a lot more potential than past 2 winters

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Stratton23 wrote:Im encouraged by the afternoon ensembles today, all three ensemble groups have actually made a noticeable and somewhat significant shift west to WSW with the long wave trough, that can make a huge difference down the road
I noticed that last nights 0z EPS came in about 2-4 degrees colder for Texas than yesterday’s 12z EPS for the 10-15 day period. This is what I was referring to in my earlier post.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Stratton23 wrote:Im encouraged by the afternoon ensembles today, all three ensemble groups have actually made a noticeable and somewhat significant shift west to WSW with the long wave trough, that can make a huge difference down the road
Makes a difference. Though nearly 300 hours out some crazy contrast on the Euro. Highs in the 20s for Texarkana and the northeastern part of the state while it's 50s and 60s west of I-35 on the 8th-9th.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Euro and GFS are starting to align looks like the +PNA will win out this go around. Hopefully end of the month changes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Gotwood wrote:Euro and GFS are starting to align looks like the +PNA will win out this go around. Hopefully end of the month changes.
Yup still looks better east of here through the usual fantasy land

Maybe in 2-3 weeks it'll be our turn. Maybe
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Gotwood not so fast, dont put much stock into the operational models this far out, todays GEFS/ GEPS have trended back west with the trough due to a weaker + PNA ridge, this is still over 11 days out, the upper level pattern can change, today ensembles runs have made good trends
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Stratton23 wrote:Gotwood not so fast, dont put much stock into the operational models this far out, todays GEFS/ GEPS have trended back west with the trough due to a weaker + PNA ridge, this is still over 11 days out, the upper level pattern can change, today ensembles runs have made good trends
As long as we keep a signal around mid January
It better not get pushed back again
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Brent wrote:Stratton23 wrote:Gotwood not so fast, dont put much stock into the operational models this far out, todays GEFS/ GEPS have trended back west with the trough due to a weaker + PNA ridge, this is still over 11 days out, the upper level pattern can change, today ensembles runs have made good trends
As long as we keep a signal around mid January
It better not get pushed back again
Middle of January towards the middle of February might be fun around here. A good 4-5 week window.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
My biggest concern is that the other teleconnections aren’t gonna line up properly when the PNA decides to finally go neutral.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
I will say the EPS looks as good as it has here through January 10th for at least a flizzard or maybe a dusting ish
That would help things along if it actually happens. There's been virtually no snow even in Kansas yet. We need a good snow pack north of us
January 1985 does appear to have had a little snow here during the extremely cold DC inauguration before the fun began in Texas a week or so later
That would help things along if it actually happens. There's been virtually no snow even in Kansas yet. We need a good snow pack north of us
January 1985 does appear to have had a little snow here during the extremely cold DC inauguration before the fun began in Texas a week or so later
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Brent yeah the EPS snowfall signal actually looks pretty decent for texas and oklahoma lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Stratton23 wrote:Brent yeah the EPS snowfall signal actually looks pretty decent for texas and oklahoma lol
Best signal still around the 7th although the one right after New Year's isn't totally dead yet
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Wthrfan wrote:I was sitting here bemoaning the lack of winter weather and wondering if it really was that abnormal. Three of the top 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since 2021 in OKC.
https://www.weather.gov/oun/climate-records
Speaking of, DFW may be on track for a top 10 warmest December this year, lol...
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
One positive thing that I’ve noticed, at least up here, are highs and lows have been running around 5 degrees cooler than what’s being forecasted.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Yukon Cornelius wrote:One positive thing that I’ve noticed, at least up here, are highs and lows have been running around 5 degrees cooler than what’s being forecasted.
Yeah weve been way off all week
You would think eventually that will mean something. In theory
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
On a side note, interestingly enough, the system tomorrow might be another overperformer for the eastern part of the state similar to the last 2 in terms of qpf and storms. We've had a couple short term systems that have dug further south/stronger but in a mild regime.

Just a caution following the chaotic flow of these digging systems into the new year. No idea how they will play out in real time beyond 3 days.

Just a caution following the chaotic flow of these digging systems into the new year. No idea how they will play out in real time beyond 3 days.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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