Texas Winter 2024-2025

[orangeblood]

516 dm into Northern Alabama on the 10th with another PV reload a few days later. This upcoming January pattern is LOADED with potential, unlike we’ve seen in years for Januarys specifically!

[Ntxw]

There are so many systems to watch next week. Some areas may see several snow opportunities. Don't be surprised either within the cold air mass you get light events coming from the north/northwest as well that isn't captured.

Nevertheless, it's going to start with this late weekend storm up in Oklahoma, watch for southerly trends.

[orangeblood]

There are so many systems to watch next week. Some areas may see several snow opportunities. Don't be surprised either within the cold air mass you get light events coming from the north/northwest as well that isn't captured.

Nevertheless, it's going to start with this late weekend storm up in Oklahoma, watch for southerly trends.

Yep, how many times over the years have we seen that happen? It’s usually the front end of these arctic outbreaks that catch everyone off guard. Mainly due to our models still having major flaws handling these shallow dense cold air masses. doesn’t take much to cause issues

[Ntxw]

There are so many systems to watch next week. Some areas may see several snow opportunities. Don't be surprised either within the cold air mass you get light events coming from the north/northwest as well that isn't captured.

Nevertheless, it's going to start with this late weekend storm up in Oklahoma, watch for southerly trends.

Yep, how many times over the years have we seen that happen? It’s usually the front end of these arctic outbreaks that catch everyone off guard, doesn’t take much to cause issues

CFSv2. We have not seen a trough pattern like this since 2009-2010, it's going to extend through January...could be a snowy month.

[orangeblood]

There are so many systems to watch next week. Some areas may see several snow opportunities. Don't be surprised either within the cold air mass you get light events coming from the north/northwest as well that isn't captured.

Nevertheless, it's going to start with this late weekend storm up in Oklahoma, watch for southerly trends.

Yep, how many times over the years have we seen that happen? It’s usually the front end of these arctic outbreaks that catch everyone off guard, doesn’t take much to cause issues

CFSv2. We have not seen a trough pattern like this since 2009-2010, it's going to extend through January...could be a snowy month.

Negative EPO/AO is relentless

[Ntxw]

MJO is in P7, will traverse 8-1-2 in the heart of winter and not too high an amplitude as to overwhelm the pattern. That's quite favorable over the heart of winter climo wise. This is why years like Jan/Feb 1985 were so cold and snowy. The ducks aligned.

[Cpv17]

I’m with Ntxw about watching these SW trends. I mean look how much the storm systems trended this past week with our tornado outbreak. Maybe that’s a sign.

[Ntxw]

I’m with Ntxw about watching these SW trends. I mean look how much the storm systems trended this past week with our tornado outbreak. Maybe that’s a sign.

There is good reason they have been trending south, because the AO block is setting up. It has/will slow up the pattern.

[cstrunk]

I love the enthusiasm here but I'm not going to get too excited for any winter precip until we get under 5 days... or even 3 days. 7-14+ days is too far.

[Ralph's Weather]

I love the enthusiasm here but I'm not going to get too excited for any winter precip until we get under 5 days... or even 3 days. 7-14+ days is too far.

It's not about being excited about a particular event. It's the overall pattern that is incredible. The cold and storminess will be prolonged so everyone will have multiple chances. And the first storm comes this weekend so getting within range to begin to look at some specifics on that one.

[Brent]

I love the enthusiasm here but I'm not going to get too excited for any winter precip until we get under 5 days... or even 3 days. 7-14+ days is too far.

It's not about being excited about a particular event. It's the overall pattern that is incredible. The cold and storminess will be prolonged so everyone will have multiple chances. And the first storm comes this weekend so getting within range to begin to look at some specifics on that one.

Right we all know a week out the models aren't gonna be right about the snow it's more the larger picture and why I keep saying look at the ensembles. It's gonna be vague for awhile still but the pattern is definitely loaded

I mean when do we see ensembles with snow into the Gulf. Not even every winter

[HockeyTx82]

I love the enthusiasm here but I'm not going to get too excited for any winter precip until we get under 5 days... or even 3 days. 7-14+ days is too far.

It's not about being excited about a particular event. It's the overall pattern that is incredible. The cold and storminess will be prolonged so everyone will have multiple chances. And the first storm comes this weekend so getting within range to begin to look at some specifics on that one.

Right we all know a week out the models aren't gonna be right about the snow it's more the larger picture and why I keep saying look at the ensembles. It's gonna be vague for awhile still but the pattern is definitely loaded

I mean when do we see ensembles with snow into the Gulf. Not even every winter

Yes we do, but it's always two weeks out along with the Cat 5.

[Ntxw]

I love the enthusiasm here but I'm not going to get too excited for any winter precip until we get under 5 days... or even 3 days. 7-14+ days is too far.

It's not about being excited about a particular event. It's the overall pattern that is incredible. The cold and storminess will be prolonged so everyone will have multiple chances. And the first storm comes this weekend so getting within range to begin to look at some specifics on that one.

Right we all know a week out the models aren't gonna be right about the snow it's more the larger picture and why I keep saying look at the ensembles. It's gonna be vague for awhile still but the pattern is definitely loaded

I mean when do we see ensembles with snow into the Gulf. Not even every winter

It would be extremely random bad luck to the nth degree if you don't get anything out of the next 3 weeks, I doubt it though. You don't get many cold loading patterns with ample energy post cold often, many years don't.

[cstrunk]

Fair enough - I should have added a caveat about winter precip *at my location*. It may snow and it may also snow in Houston and not at my house. Y'all are right about one thing though, get the cold air in first and worry about precip 2nd. That's why I'm not going to get too excited until within 3-5 days. Cold air without snow/ice doesn't do anything for me except make me shiver!

[Brandon8181]

Globals will struggle with resolving the PNA ridge out west vs the Arctic trough to our NE. The cold will come in faster initially than modeled and the cold not moderate near as quickly as models indicate between waves. Can't ride the roller coaster of individual model runs. Follow trends and trust your knowledge of past events.

Exactly.... and the trend is certainly colder with some kind of winter related weather generally in the south.

[gboudx]

I love the enthusiasm here but I'm not going to get too excited for any winter precip until we get under 5 days... or even 3 days. 7-14+ days is too far.

I rely on our weather rock. If I look outside and see snow on it, then I’m confident it’ll snow.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

My heart is jumping for joy. Unlike most of you, I’ll just take cold and snow is icing on top. F anything above 75 degrees and f anything above 60 in Winter.

I like seasons.

[Portastorm]

Hey guys, what's up? Anything going on?

[3090]

Hey guys, what's up? Anything going on?

Nah…no tropical systems to worry about, just a bit of a buzz abound, for wintry precip.

[gpsnowman]

Hey guys, what's up? Anything going on?

Welcome back to the forum Porta ,we missed you around here. Hope you enjoy your upper 80s today down in Austin. Could be a while before we get that high again. Hopefully.