Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Quixotic]

I think apocalyptic cold not coming is a good thing. I think of 77-78, 09-10 and 13-14. Super cold leads to suppression and that’s the dry cold with flurries and kudos to south Texas

[Lagreeneyes03]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GgE-11-WMAAq83o?format=png&name=medium

Man, that’s a map I can get behind. Personally I’d like to see that >10” swath in central tx continue another 100 miles east, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers and 4-6” is better than 99% of storms I’ve seen in dfw. Would be nice to see something like that play out where most of Texas cashes in, but I won’t hold my breath yet.

I am a little concerned that coastal low formation would steal much of the moisture across the northern half of the state and Oklahoma if this setup does play out, but hopefully there will be enough left for higher ratios in the deeper cold air here as others have mentioned. No point in getting worked up on it for now but hard not to speculate for entertainment.

We seem to get hosed in DFW lately... I'd rather it be 100 than cold with no snow

[TropicalTundra]

That 6z GFS is interesting.

[HockeyTx82]

That 6z GFS is interesting.

Context? People's emotions are heightened at the moment!

[Brent]

That 6z GFS is interesting.

I can tell you that 0z GFS got the mets talking here

Of course the 6z isn't as good verbatim(no surprise I expect the globals to struggle) but I think it was a warning shot that something big is coming

[Wthrfan]

For what it’s worth Brent, TWC is showing moderately cold weather beginning Sunday (Monday only sub freezing day) but mainly rain. Another met I follow in OKC is saying we may get some wrap around snow but won’t be much. I think you have a little better shot in Tulsa, but all depends on how fast the temps drop.

[Cpv17]

For what it’s worth Brent, TWC is showing moderately cold weather beginning Sunday (Monday only sub freezing day) but mainly rain. Another met I follow in OKC is saying we may get some wrap around snow but won’t be much. I think you have a little better shot in Tulsa, but all depends on how fast the temps drop.

Forecasts this far out are always going to be very conservative because they aid on the side of climatology. Pretty much been that way forever.

[snownado]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GgE-11-WMAAq83o?format=png&name=medium

Man, that’s a map I can get behind. Personally I’d like to see that >10” swath in central tx continue another 100 miles east, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers and 4-6” is better than 99% of storms I’ve seen in dfw. Would be nice to see something like that play out where most of Texas cashes in, but I won’t hold my breath yet.

I am a little concerned that coastal low formation would steal much of the moisture across the northern half of the state and Oklahoma if this setup does play out, but hopefully there will be enough left for higher ratios in the deeper cold air here as others have mentioned. No point in getting worked up on it for now but hard not to speculate for entertainment.

We seem to get hosed in DFW lately... I'd rather it be 100 than cold with no snow

Yessir!!!

[Cpv17]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GgE-11-WMAAq83o?format=png&name=medium

Man, that’s a map I can get behind. Personally I’d like to see that >10” swath in central tx continue another 100 miles east, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers and 4-6” is better than 99% of storms I’ve seen in dfw. Would be nice to see something like that play out where most of Texas cashes in, but I won’t hold my breath yet.

I am a little concerned that coastal low formation would steal much of the moisture across the northern half of the state and Oklahoma if this setup does play out, but hopefully there will be enough left for higher ratios in the deeper cold air here as others have mentioned. No point in getting worked up on it for now but hard not to speculate for entertainment.

We seem to get hosed in DFW lately... I'd rather it be 100 than cold with no snow

Way too early to throw in the towel for DFW.

[Brent]

For what it’s worth Brent, TWC is showing moderately cold weather beginning Sunday (Monday only sub freezing day) but mainly rain. Another met I follow in OKC is saying we may get some wrap around snow but won’t be much. I think you have a little better shot in Tulsa, but all depends on how fast the temps drop.

I just can't accept us having another snow hole like the 6z GFS and other runs have hinted at. That's my fear here. Like we've already done it twice since 2023

The good news is the ensembles still look good and like I said above I don't really trust the GFS anyway on precip depiction this far out

But there is a chance Sunday is north of us and then the mid week storm is south of us and I don't like that

[snownado]

Not only will this December be a top 3 warmest for DFW (surprising considering how milquetoast the month started and no real extreme warmth), it should also be good enough for 2024 to tie the warmest yeard on record with average temperature of 69.8*F (the previous record was set in 2017).

[orangeblood]

Overnights ensembles looking much better for a winter storm early to mid week next week across Texas….Euro and Canadian more aggressive than GEFS. Since we’re still over 5 days out from the pattern change, leaning heavily on the ensembles seems like the best forecast tool to use at this time

Here are the snow probability depictions for greater than 1”

Euro ENS


Canadian ENS


GEFS

[Ntxw]

That 6z GFS is interesting.

I can tell you that 0z GFS got the mets talking here

Of course the 6z isn't as good verbatim(no surprise I expect the globals to struggle) but I think it was a warning shot that something big is coming

0z Euro was bullseye with north and northeast Texas snow. No one wanted to post amounts because at 200+ hours it's a jinx.

[Brent]

That 6z GFS is interesting.

I can tell you that 0z GFS got the mets talking here

Of course the 6z isn't as good verbatim(no surprise I expect the globals to struggle) but I think it was a warning shot that something big is coming

0z Euro was bullseye with north and northeast Texas snow. No one wanted to post amounts because at 200+ hours it's a jinx.

Right I just hope Sunday works out here because I'm scared we'll be too far north for the other storm

[bubba hotep]

That 6z GFS is interesting.

I can tell you that 0z GFS got the mets talking here

Of course the 6z isn't as good verbatim(no surprise I expect the globals to struggle) but I think it was a warning shot that something big is coming

0z Euro was bullseye with north and northeast Texas snow. No one wanted to post amounts because at 200+ hours it's a jinx.

You can't jinx mother nature but a model might come to it's senses later on lol

[wxman22]

The midweek storm next week on the overnight GFS and EURO

[wxman57]

Still much uncertainty concerning specifics for next week. Let's look at what the models agree on:

1. Initial Canadian front moves through Sunday afternoon/evening. That should drop the D-FW area below freezing by Monday evening. Not Arctic air, though.

2. Mid-level short wave (trof) moves southeast into west and north Texas by Wednesday afternoon. This will likely trigger the development of a west Gulf low off the lower Texas coast. Result will be widespread precipitation across Texas Wednesday to Friday.

Both 1 & 2 seem rather likely. The big question is the airmass across Texas next week. There is no snow cover to our north, so that will limit the cold, somewhat. I've always said to pay attention to the air in the source region. Good advice, but the event is way too far out for any air from cross-Polar flow to show up in northern Canada. However, the current airmass temps from northern Canada to Siberia are near normal or even a bit above normal. Not particularly cold.

I'm thinking that the most likely scenario would be cold rain with some sleet across SE Texas next week, with temps hovering in the 30s next Wed-Fri. Up in the D-FW area to OK, the air will likely be cold enough for frozen precip. For specifics, you'll have to wait until maybe next Monday, once we see the kind of airmass we'll be dealing with.

As for me, my pilot is standing by next week, but I don't think I'll need to evacuate. My newly-reinforced Canadian wall will likely keep our lows above 20F next week. Maybe only upper 20s for the coldest. Coldest day may be next Saturday once the clouds clear and the precip ends.

[bubba hotep]

Overnights ensembles looking much better for a winter storm early to mid week next week across Texas….Euro and Canadian more aggressive than GEFS. Since we’re still over 5 days out from the pattern change, leaning heavily on the ensembles seems like the best forecast tool to use at this time

Here are the snow probability depictions for greater than 1”

Euro ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/snow_ge_1/1735603200/1736899200-1d2gATETA0A.png

Canadian ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/snow_ge_1/1735603200/1736899200-3eH5VcUsuHM.png

GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/snow_ge_1/1735624800/1736899200-QKNPUYbkLMI.png

From the 00z Euro EPS, only two members support a big storm for North Texas. Plenty of members with smaller amounts, but there is a small cluster in the 2"+ group. From my experience, you want to be inside the 2" contour in the longer range to have some level of confidence, and even then, it is still tricky.

[Edwards Limestone]

EWX already hedging for a potential bust. Kinda wish they'd just say nothing at all.

 https://x.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1873844915815538890

[Portastorm]

You can read the Christmas Eve meltdowns below. Though he's no longer here Msstateguy stuck to his guns on that one...and won against the model's will.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... start=1640

Thanks for this trip down memory lane! I smiled a lot reading through those posts and being reminded about that event. God bless him ... msstateguy held the line and was rewarded for his faith. That event has to be in our Texas Winter Weather Hall of Fame.