Texas Winter 2024-2025
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
I think apocalyptic cold not coming is a good thing. I think of 77-78, 09-10 and 13-14. Super cold leads to suppression and that’s the dry cold with flurries and kudos to south Texas
3 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 558
- Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:53 am
- Location: Luxurious Lake Grapevine
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
cheezyWXguy wrote:nathanc1969 wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GgE-11-WMAAq83o?format=png&name=medium
Man, that’s a map I can get behind. Personally I’d like to see that >10” swath in central tx continue another 100 miles east, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers and 4-6” is better than 99% of storms I’ve seen in dfw. Would be nice to see something like that play out where most of Texas cashes in, but I won’t hold my breath yet.
I am a little concerned that coastal low formation would steal much of the moisture across the northern half of the state and Oklahoma if this setup does play out, but hopefully there will be enough left for higher ratios in the deeper cold air here as others have mentioned. No point in getting worked up on it for now but hard not to speculate for entertainment.
We seem to get hosed in DFW lately... I'd rather it be 100 than cold with no snow
1 likes
I'm a Princess, not a forecaster.
- TropicalTundra
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 704
- Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:56 pm
- Location: Temple, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
That 6z GFS is interesting.
1 likes
Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2540
- Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
- Location: Ponder, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
TropicalTundra wrote:That 6z GFS is interesting.
Context? People's emotions are heightened at the moment!
1 likes
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38099
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
TropicalTundra wrote:That 6z GFS is interesting.
I can tell you that 0z GFS got the mets talking here
Of course the 6z isn't as good verbatim(no surprise I expect the globals to struggle) but I think it was a warning shot that something big is coming
0 likes
#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
For what it’s worth Brent, TWC is showing moderately cold weather beginning Sunday (Monday only sub freezing day) but mainly rain. Another met I follow in OKC is saying we may get some wrap around snow but won’t be much. I think you have a little better shot in Tulsa, but all depends on how fast the temps drop.
1 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Wthrfan wrote:For what it’s worth Brent, TWC is showing moderately cold weather beginning Sunday (Monday only sub freezing day) but mainly rain. Another met I follow in OKC is saying we may get some wrap around snow but won’t be much. I think you have a little better shot in Tulsa, but all depends on how fast the temps drop.
Forecasts this far out are always going to be very conservative because they aid on the side of climatology. Pretty much been that way forever.
4 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:nathanc1969 wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GgE-11-WMAAq83o?format=png&name=medium
Man, that’s a map I can get behind. Personally I’d like to see that >10” swath in central tx continue another 100 miles east, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers and 4-6” is better than 99% of storms I’ve seen in dfw. Would be nice to see something like that play out where most of Texas cashes in, but I won’t hold my breath yet.
I am a little concerned that coastal low formation would steal much of the moisture across the northern half of the state and Oklahoma if this setup does play out, but hopefully there will be enough left for higher ratios in the deeper cold air here as others have mentioned. No point in getting worked up on it for now but hard not to speculate for entertainment.
We seem to get hosed in DFW lately... I'd rather it be 100 than cold with no snow
Yessir!!!

1 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:nathanc1969 wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GgE-11-WMAAq83o?format=png&name=medium
Man, that’s a map I can get behind. Personally I’d like to see that >10” swath in central tx continue another 100 miles east, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers and 4-6” is better than 99% of storms I’ve seen in dfw. Would be nice to see something like that play out where most of Texas cashes in, but I won’t hold my breath yet.
I am a little concerned that coastal low formation would steal much of the moisture across the northern half of the state and Oklahoma if this setup does play out, but hopefully there will be enough left for higher ratios in the deeper cold air here as others have mentioned. No point in getting worked up on it for now but hard not to speculate for entertainment.
We seem to get hosed in DFW lately... I'd rather it be 100 than cold with no snow
Way too early to throw in the towel for DFW.
4 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38099
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Wthrfan wrote:For what it’s worth Brent, TWC is showing moderately cold weather beginning Sunday (Monday only sub freezing day) but mainly rain. Another met I follow in OKC is saying we may get some wrap around snow but won’t be much. I think you have a little better shot in Tulsa, but all depends on how fast the temps drop.
I just can't accept us having another snow hole like the 6z GFS and other runs have hinted at. That's my fear here. Like we've already done it twice since 2023
The good news is the ensembles still look good and like I said above I don't really trust the GFS anyway on precip depiction this far out
But there is a chance Sunday is north of us and then the mid week storm is south of us and I don't like that
Last edited by Brent on Tue Dec 31, 2024 8:06 am, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes
#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Not only will this December be a top 3 warmest for DFW (surprising considering how milquetoast the month started and no real extreme warmth), it should also be good enough for 2024 to tie the warmest yeard on record with average temperature of 69.8*F (the previous record was set in 2017).
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3714
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Overnights ensembles looking much better for a winter storm early to mid week next week across Texas….Euro and Canadian more aggressive than GEFS. Since we’re still over 5 days out from the pattern change, leaning heavily on the ensembles seems like the best forecast tool to use at this time
Here are the snow probability depictions for greater than 1”
Euro ENS

Canadian ENS

GEFS

Here are the snow probability depictions for greater than 1”
Euro ENS

Canadian ENS

GEFS

8 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Brent wrote:TropicalTundra wrote:That 6z GFS is interesting.
I can tell you that 0z GFS got the mets talking here
Of course the 6z isn't as good verbatim(no surprise I expect the globals to struggle) but I think it was a warning shot that something big is coming
0z Euro was bullseye with north and northeast Texas snow. No one wanted to post amounts because at 200+ hours it's a jinx.
5 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38099
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Ntxw wrote:Brent wrote:TropicalTundra wrote:That 6z GFS is interesting.
I can tell you that 0z GFS got the mets talking here
Of course the 6z isn't as good verbatim(no surprise I expect the globals to struggle) but I think it was a warning shot that something big is coming
0z Euro was bullseye with north and northeast Texas snow. No one wanted to post amounts because at 200+ hours it's a jinx.
Right I just hope Sunday works out here because I'm scared we'll be too far north for the other storm
0 likes
#neversummer
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Ntxw wrote:Brent wrote:TropicalTundra wrote:That 6z GFS is interesting.
I can tell you that 0z GFS got the mets talking here
Of course the 6z isn't as good verbatim(no surprise I expect the globals to struggle) but I think it was a warning shot that something big is coming
0z Euro was bullseye with north and northeast Texas snow. No one wanted to post amounts because at 200+ hours it's a jinx.
You can't jinx mother nature but a model might come to it's senses later on lol

2 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22984
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Still much uncertainty concerning specifics for next week. Let's look at what the models agree on:
1. Initial Canadian front moves through Sunday afternoon/evening. That should drop the D-FW area below freezing by Monday evening. Not Arctic air, though.
2. Mid-level short wave (trof) moves southeast into west and north Texas by Wednesday afternoon. This will likely trigger the development of a west Gulf low off the lower Texas coast. Result will be widespread precipitation across Texas Wednesday to Friday.
Both 1 & 2 seem rather likely. The big question is the airmass across Texas next week. There is no snow cover to our north, so that will limit the cold, somewhat. I've always said to pay attention to the air in the source region. Good advice, but the event is way too far out for any air from cross-Polar flow to show up in northern Canada. However, the current airmass temps from northern Canada to Siberia are near normal or even a bit above normal. Not particularly cold.
I'm thinking that the most likely scenario would be cold rain with some sleet across SE Texas next week, with temps hovering in the 30s next Wed-Fri. Up in the D-FW area to OK, the air will likely be cold enough for frozen precip. For specifics, you'll have to wait until maybe next Monday, once we see the kind of airmass we'll be dealing with.
As for me, my pilot is standing by next week, but I don't think I'll need to evacuate. My newly-reinforced Canadian wall will likely keep our lows above 20F next week. Maybe only upper 20s for the coldest. Coldest day may be next Saturday once the clouds clear and the precip ends.
1. Initial Canadian front moves through Sunday afternoon/evening. That should drop the D-FW area below freezing by Monday evening. Not Arctic air, though.
2. Mid-level short wave (trof) moves southeast into west and north Texas by Wednesday afternoon. This will likely trigger the development of a west Gulf low off the lower Texas coast. Result will be widespread precipitation across Texas Wednesday to Friday.
Both 1 & 2 seem rather likely. The big question is the airmass across Texas next week. There is no snow cover to our north, so that will limit the cold, somewhat. I've always said to pay attention to the air in the source region. Good advice, but the event is way too far out for any air from cross-Polar flow to show up in northern Canada. However, the current airmass temps from northern Canada to Siberia are near normal or even a bit above normal. Not particularly cold.
I'm thinking that the most likely scenario would be cold rain with some sleet across SE Texas next week, with temps hovering in the 30s next Wed-Fri. Up in the D-FW area to OK, the air will likely be cold enough for frozen precip. For specifics, you'll have to wait until maybe next Monday, once we see the kind of airmass we'll be dealing with.
As for me, my pilot is standing by next week, but I don't think I'll need to evacuate. My newly-reinforced Canadian wall will likely keep our lows above 20F next week. Maybe only upper 20s for the coldest. Coldest day may be next Saturday once the clouds clear and the precip ends.
9 likes
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
orangeblood wrote:Overnights ensembles looking much better for a winter storm early to mid week next week across Texas….Euro and Canadian more aggressive than GEFS. Since we’re still over 5 days out from the pattern change, leaning heavily on the ensembles seems like the best forecast tool to use at this time
Here are the snow probability depictions for greater than 1”
Euro ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/snow_ge_1/1735603200/1736899200-1d2gATETA0A.png
Canadian ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/snow_ge_1/1735603200/1736899200-3eH5VcUsuHM.png
GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/snow_ge_1/1735624800/1736899200-QKNPUYbkLMI.png
From the 00z Euro EPS, only two members support a big storm for North Texas. Plenty of members with smaller amounts, but there is a small cluster in the 2"+ group. From my experience, you want to be inside the 2" contour in the longer range to have some level of confidence, and even then, it is still tricky.
3 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Edwards Limestone
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 476
- Age: 36
- Joined: Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:05 am
- Location: Smithson Valley, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
EWX already hedging for a potential bust. Kinda wish they'd just say nothing at all.
https://x.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1873844915815538890
https://x.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1873844915815538890
0 likes
The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Ntxw wrote:You can read the Christmas Eve meltdowns below. Though he's no longer here Msstateguy stuck to his guns on that one...and won against the model's will.
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... start=1640
Thanks for this trip down memory lane! I smiled a lot reading through those posts and being reminded about that event. God bless him ... msstateguy held the line and was rewarded for his faith.

3 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 55 guests