Texas Winter 2024-2025

[rwfromkansas]

I'm not the expert and somebody else will probably add, but they manually do all those forecasts versus a computer outputting it, so it takes time for them to update everything. Right now that's just the safe forecast because that's the typical day that we would most likely have this far out.

I get that. I really do. Obviously, them sounded the alarm vs our chatter here is completely different. I just, feel like at this time atleast a Rain/Snow mix picture with highs in the 40's is appropriate for Thursday. 10%

It just seems like the confidence would be enough for a mention.

Not 100% certain but over the years I have noticed they often follow MOS statistical guidance in their forecasts. It's a statistical approach rather than purely dynamical/NWP model forecasts, what you and I are used to seeing. It has climo involved a lot and they adjust subtly. If you ever heard of 'stat' method from Steve McCauley it's a similar approach. From a NWS forecasting perspective it's very much about probability rather than possibility all the time.

When I was reading the Wichita discussions about the Kansas storm, they seem much less focused on probability. It doesn't seem to be their main focus, unlike FWD.

[Ntxw]

I get that. I really do. Obviously, them sounded the alarm vs our chatter here is completely different. I just, feel like at this time atleast a Rain/Snow mix picture with highs in the 40's is appropriate for Thursday. 10%

It just seems like the confidence would be enough for a mention.

Not 100% certain but over the years I have noticed they often follow MOS statistical guidance in their forecasts. It's a statistical approach rather than purely dynamical/NWP model forecasts, what you and I are used to seeing. It has climo involved a lot and they adjust subtly. If you ever heard of 'stat' method from Steve McCauley it's a similar approach. From a NWS forecasting perspective it's very much about probability rather than possibility all the time.

When I was reading the Wichita discussions about the Kansas storm, they seem much less focused on probability. It doesn't seem to be their main focus, unlike FWD.

MOS products can adjust as well, once it starts producing high percentages they'll get more bold. Statistical forecast doesn't mean it can't show a high impact event, it's just more smoothed the longer out you go.

[gpsnowman]

I'm not the expert and somebody else will probably add, but they manually do all those forecasts versus a computer outputting it, so it takes time for them to update everything. Right now that's just the safe forecast because that's the typical day that we would most likely have this far out.

I get that. I really do. Obviously, them sounded the alarm vs our chatter here is completely different. I just, feel like at this time atleast a Rain/Snow mix picture with highs in the 40's is appropriate for Thursday. 10%

It just seems like the confidence would be enough for a mention.

Not 100% certain but over the years I have noticed they often follow MOS statistical guidance in their forecasts. It's a statistical approach rather than purely dynamical/NWP model forecasts, what you and I are used to seeing. It has climo involved a lot and they adjust subtly. If you ever heard of 'stat' method from Steve McCauley it's a similar approach. From a NWS forecasting perspective it's very much about probability rather than possibility all the time.

Speaking of Steve McCauley he has not made a FB post in a while. Usually he chimes in frequently when a winter weather event is potentially near.

[HockeyTx82]

I see my old Ponder neighbor is on the board tonight.

[Brandon8181]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2025010218&fh=168&lat=32.34&lon=-95.34&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular

Would anyone mind providing me some guidance on this sounding? I've never learned to read them.

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2025010218&fh=168&lat=32.34&lon=-95.34&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular

Would anyone mind providing me some guidance on this sounding? I've never learned to read them.

Sure thing! This image is a Skew-T log-P diagram, a tool meteorologists use to understand the atmosphere and predict weather. Here's a breakdown:

**Main Graph (left):**
- **Pressure (y-axis)**: Pressure decreases as you go up in the atmosphere.
- **Temperature (x-axis)**: Horizontal lines show temperature in degrees Celsius.
- **Red Line**: The actual temperature at different heights.
- **Green Line**: The dew point temperature, which indicates moisture.
- **Blue Line**: The wet-bulb temperature, which combines temperature and humidity.
- **Purple Dashed Line**: The theoretical path of a parcel of air if it rises.
- **Wind Barbs (right)**: Show wind speed and direction at various heights.

**Inset Graphs:**
- **Top Right**: A hodograph showing wind speed and direction changes with height.
- **Bottom Right**: The equivalent potential temperature profile.

**Key Parameters:**
- **CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy)**: Indicates energy for storms.
- **SRH (Storm Relative Helicity)**: Shows potential for rotating storms (tornadoes).
- **PWAT (Precipitable Water)**: Total water vapor in a column of air.

These elements help meteorologists assess storm potential and atmospheric stability. If you have any specific questions about this, let me know!

[Brandon8181]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2025010218&fh=168&lat=32.34&lon=-95.34&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular

Would anyone mind providing me some guidance on this sounding? I've never learned to read them.

Sure thing! This image is a Skew-T log-P diagram, a tool meteorologists use to understand the atmosphere and predict weather. Here's a breakdown:

**Main Graph (left):**
- **Pressure (y-axis)**: Pressure decreases as you go up in the atmosphere.
- **Temperature (x-axis)**: Horizontal lines show temperature in degrees Celsius.
- **Red Line**: The actual temperature at different heights.
- **Green Line**: The dew point temperature, which indicates moisture.
- **Blue Line**: The wet-bulb temperature, which combines temperature and humidity.
- **Purple Dashed Line**: The theoretical path of a parcel of air if it rises.
- **Wind Barbs (right)**: Show wind speed and direction at various heights.

**Inset Graphs:**
- **Top Right**: A hodograph showing wind speed and direction changes with height.
- **Bottom Right**: The equivalent potential temperature profile.

**Key Parameters:**
- **CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy)**: Indicates energy for storms.
- **SRH (Storm Relative Helicity)**: Shows potential for rotating storms (tornadoes).
- **PWAT (Precipitable Water)**: Total water vapor in a column of air.

These elements help meteorologists assess storm potential and atmospheric stability. If you have any specific questions about this, let me know!

Thank you so much for the wonderful explanation

[Ralph's Weather]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2025010218&fh=168&lat=32.34&lon=-95.34&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular

Would anyone mind providing me some guidance on this sounding? I've never learned to read them.

It shows a saturated column that's all sub freezing. It does indicate some near freezing air at mid levels so a touch warmer and sleet would mix in.

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2025010218&fh=168&lat=32.34&lon=-95.34&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular

Would anyone mind providing me some guidance on this sounding? I've never learned to read them.

Just so you know I took that picture, uploaded it into co-pilot and started asking it questions based off the picture so that was a complete AI output. You might want to try doing that with some things and see what you come up with. I've learned quite a bit and then confirmed it on here with others.

[Ntxw]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2025010218&fh=168&lat=32.34&lon=-95.34&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular

Would anyone mind providing me some guidance on this sounding? I've never learned to read them.

Just so you know I took that picture, uploaded it into co-pilot and started asking it questions based off the picture so that was a complete AI output. You might want to try doing that with some things and see what you come up with. I've learned quite a bit and then confirmed it on here with others.

Dewpoint and temperature lines are in aligned, which means the column is moist and precipitating. The two lines are below 0C (freezing; follow the dashed lines from 0, diagonally to the right and up.) DGZ (dendritic growth zone where snow is made from -10C to -20C) is roughly 650mb to 500mb or 6k-18k feet up. Quick interpretation. In short a good sounding for snow being made and falling to the ground.

[Brandon8181]

This is the first I've seen from a TV meteorologist on this system:

CBS 19 in Tyler meteorologist Brett Anthony:
Texas snow rules and medium range models coming into agreement are lending toward more confidence in East Texas seeing at least a rain/snow mix in the middle of next week. Way too early to talk about impacts and amounts but we've got time to hammer that out. Definitely cold enough for snow, sleet or freezing rain.

He posted this along with one of the more extreme model shows.

[snownado]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2025010218&fh=168&lat=32.34&lon=-95.34&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular

Would anyone mind providing me some guidance on this sounding? I've never learned to read them.

Just so you know I took that picture, uploaded it into co-pilot and started asking it questions based off the picture so that was a complete AI output. You might want to try doing that with some things and see what you come up with. I've learned quite a bit and then confirmed it on here with others.

Dewpoint and temperature lines are in aligned, which means the column is moist and precipitating. The two lines are below 0C (freezing; follow the dashed lines from 0, diagonally to the right and up.) DGZ (dendritic growth zone where snow is made from -10C to -20C) is roughly 650mb to 500mb or 6k-18k feet up. Quick interpretation. In short a good sounding for snow being made and falling to the ground.

Not ideal for heavy snowfall rates (and thus accumulation) though, as dendrites that high up will get ripped to shreds by the Jet (reducing ratios) and it's going to take a fair amoumt of time to saturate the column down to the ground.

[Brandon8181]

00z Icon keeps Snow storm generally south/central Texas

[Stratton23]

00z ICON is a full on snowstorm for central and se texas

[Brandon8181]

00z ICON is a full on snowstorm for central and se texas

It makes me wonder if FW is more following the ICON solution because they recently posted a graphic speaking of main travel issues across central Texas.

[Harp.1]

South Louisiana loves some ICON!!!

[orangeblood]

00z ICON is a full on snowstorm for central and se texas

It makes me wonder if FW is more following the ICON solution because they recently posted a graphic speaking of main travel issues across central Texas.

Hugging the ensemble mean precip output at this point which is the smart approach at this point

[Iceresistance]

Now that is a huge jump SW on the ICON, maybe I could get some action now!


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXTrM.gif

[Ntxw]

Now that is a huge jump SW on the ICON, maybe I could get some action now!

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXTrM.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXTrM.gif

This storm is looking really intense, it's been trending deeper. I would not at all be surprised if blizzard watches/warnings were to be put in place for parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri.

[Brandon8181]

Now that is a huge jump SW on the ICON, maybe I could get some action now!

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXTrM.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXTrM.gif

This storm is looking really intense, it's been trending deeper. I would not at all be surprised if blizzard watches/warnings were to be put in place for parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri.

Agreed. Lots of intense wrap around, very close isobars, and very deep coloration. Nice model agreement on that system to. Looks like its going to be a mess in those portions of Oklahoma.