Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

18z EPS noticeable shift south with the snow mean

[wxman22]

You don't see a signal like this that often around here.

[TropicalTundra]

How is the cold front looking coming in tonight? Faster and or colder than originally forecast?

The supposed timeframe for the front to hit DFW should be between 8-9am. Need to watch early in the mornin’.

[orangeblood]

18z EPS noticeable shift south with the snow mean

Yep, past 4 run trend….

[rwfromkansas]

Geez, the RAP and HRRR are bonkers with Kansas snow. 30 inches just 30 miles north of my hometown.

Would be the biggest storm in state history. lol.

Would be 7 foot drifts.

[orangeblood]

You don't see a signal like this that often around here.

https://i.ibb.co/kcXV06m/sn10-acc-mean-imp-us-sc-2.png

No you do not, it’s extremely rare at this range too. Confidence is about as high as you can get in the EPS, 44 of 50 members showing greater than 1” accumulation for DFW

[HockeyTx82]

You don't see a signal like this that often around here.

https://i.ibb.co/kcXV06m/sn10-acc-mean-imp-us-sc-2.png

No you do not, it’s extremely rare at this range too. Confidence is about as high as you can get in the EPS, 44 of 50 members showing greater than 1” accumulation for DFW

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1736013600/1736013600-Q7jl1EcNpq8.png

So at this point are we just being greedy with slight shifts and variations of placement?

[JayDT]

You don't see a signal like this that often around here.

https://i.ibb.co/kcXV06m/sn10-acc-mean-imp-us-sc-2.png

No you do not, it’s extremely rare at this range too. Confidence is about as high as you can get in the EPS, 44 of 50 members showing greater than 1” accumulation for DFW

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1736013600/1736013600-Q7jl1EcNpq8.png

Okay after some of these 18z runs this definitely helps calm my nerves a bit.. As long as things are still looking good overall.

[Brent]

Geez, the RAP and HRRR are bonkers with Kansas snow. 30 inches just 30 miles north of my hometown.

Would be the biggest storm in state history. lol.

Would be 7 foot drifts.

Yeah I am really curious about this. Somebody is gonna over perform the 15 inches I think for sure. The moisture plume on the hi res models is just something to behold

Btw if the KC airport gets a foot it'll be the worst storm in 60 years!!!

Even 10 inches is a decade

[txtwister78]

EPS and CMC ensemble pretty much in agreement with the GEFS/GFS a bit of an outlier. You're beginning to see more consensus (even with GEFS) for an earlier/faster progression of energy coming out ahead of the main low and therefore EPS shifting a little further south with snowfall potential down into southern HC and even portions of SC TX. Something to watch as we move into the 0z model timeframe.

[Ntxw]

You don't see a signal like this that often around here.

https://i.ibb.co/kcXV06m/sn10-acc-mean-imp-us-sc-2.png

No you do not, it’s extremely rare at this range too. Confidence is about as high as you can get in the EPS, 44 of 50 members showing greater than 1” accumulation for DFW

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1736013600/1736013600-Q7jl1EcNpq8.png

So at this point are we just being greedy with slight shifts and variations of placement?

You are sitting better now than you did three days ago, and five. Could still improve.

[Sambucol2024]

18z EPS noticeable shift south with the snow mean

Yep, past 4 run trend….
https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-tx-total_snow_10to1-1736013600-1736488800-1736488800-20.gif

That looks like it’s close to or in the Houston area.

[orangeblood]

You don't see a signal like this that often around here.

https://i.ibb.co/kcXV06m/sn10-acc-mean-imp-us-sc-2.png

No you do not, it’s extremely rare at this range too. Confidence is about as high as you can get in the EPS, 44 of 50 members showing greater than 1” accumulation for DFW

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1736013600/1736013600-Q7jl1EcNpq8.png

So at this point are we just being greedy with slight shifts and variations of placement?

For the DFW metroplex, it would take a pretty shocking turn of events to not see at least some accumulating snow from this setup (greater than a trace). Now that we have a much better picture of 500 mb and precip, the most questionable aspect are the temps which will obviously dictate the extent of accumulations

[rwfromkansas]

Geez, the RAP and HRRR are bonkers with Kansas snow. 30 inches just 30 miles north of my hometown.

Would be the biggest storm in state history. lol.

Would be 7 foot drifts.

Yeah I am really curious about this. Somebody is gonna over perform the 15 inches I think for sure. The moisture plume on the hi res models is just something to behold

Btw if the KC airport gets a foot it'll be the worst storm in 60 years!!!

Even 10 inches is a decade

The average for many along the worst zone is 18-20 inches a year, so this may basically make or exceed the annual total.

[gpsnowman]

Geez, the RAP and HRRR are bonkers with Kansas snow. 30 inches just 30 miles north of my hometown.

Would be the biggest storm in state history. lol.

Would be 7 foot drifts.

That's how you get a snowpack.

[gpsnowman]

When exactly is our late week storm coming ashore for better sampling?

[txtwister78]

For those of us further south across the Hill Country into the Austin/San Antonio corridor you can see from the 18z EPS panels where this gets a bit more interesting Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning and why ICON may end up being the winner for sniffing this possibility out before other models began to see it. CMC was also in the ballpark as well.

[Gotwood]

For those of us further south across the Hill Country into the Austin/San Antonio corridor you can see from the 18z EPS panels where this gets a bit more interesting Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning and why ICON may end up being the winner for sniffing this possibility out before other models began to see it. CMC was also in the ballpark as well.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a_cm/1736013600/1736424000-npYSteimgT8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b/1736013600/1736424000-kR3t2JzOTSs.png

All I’m saying is if NTX gets shafted on this one I’ll never trust another model again.

[orangeblood]

When exactly is our late week storm coming ashore for better sampling?

Main system is just a small s/w coming ashore on the Oregon Coast Sunday evening. It’ll then strengthen substantially around Las Vegas on Tuesday. At the same time, the 2nd s/w that’ll phase with the main system (and reinforce the cold air aloft) will come onshore in British Columbia Tuesday as well

[gpsnowman]

When exactly is our late week storm coming ashore for better sampling?

Main system is just a small s/w coming ashore on the Oregon Coast Sunday evening. It’ll then strengthen substantially around Las Vegas on Tuesday. At the same time, the 2nd s/w that’ll phase with the main system (and reinforce the cold air aloft) will come onshore in British Columbia Tuesday as well

Great explanation!! Like Ntwx said it's going to be a sleepless week. Looking forward to it