Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Iceresistance]

It has trended away from us.


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXcnI.gif

[snownado]

Why not...

[orangeblood]

After looking at soundings, I think this isn't too far off. A lot of what Pivotal is showing at Sleet is debatable.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2025010700/090/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Yeah over the years I've learned sounding forecasts are a better method if you can read them. The models don't output snow, ice, etc only qpf and temps. It's the site/middle source algorithm to best guess it.

Until the most consistent/highest rated global waivers, no need to panic ladies and gentlemen. This sounding looks great Thursday morning btw. Sub freezing wet bulb, 546 and 129 benchmarks…all heavy snow maybe a little sleet

[snownado]

Why not...

https://i.ibb.co/sHDGHvq/prateptype-ukmo-imp-us-sc.png

https://i.ibb.co/h8Yj4DJ/prateptype-ukmo-imp-us-sc-1.png

[HockeyTx82]

Okay so bookmark this and please any professional meteorologist correct anything that I posted if I'm wrong. Since we seem to be going completely nuts with global models I felt compelled to put this together based off some research that I did.

It seems that we're in the transition period between where the globals are no longer valid or as useful for our very near forecast of potential snow.

The main difference between global models and more honed-in (regional) models lies in their **grid space allocation** for forecasting:

### **Global Models**
- **Coverage**: Simulate the Earth's entire atmosphere

- **Resolution**: Typically have a horizontal resolution of **10-20 km**

- **Forecast Range**: Can forecast up to **10-15 days** ahead

- **Purpose**: Best for predicting large-scale weather patterns like hurricanes, mid-latitude storm systems, and major heat waves/cold snaps

### **Regional Models**
- **Coverage**: Focus on a specific region, such as North America

- **Resolution**: Have a higher horizontal resolution, often **1-3 km**

- **Forecast Range**: Usually for shorter time frames, like **up to 2-3 days**

- **Purpose**: Better at predicting localized weather phenomena like severe thunderstorms and convection.

In essence, global models provide a broader view with less detail, while regional models offer more precision for smaller areas but over shorter periods.



When forecasting winter weather for North Texas, it's best to start with **global models** to get an initial sense of large-scale patterns and potential weather systems moving into the region. Once the global models indicate a significant weather event (like a cold front or winter storm) approaching within **3-5 days**, you can then switch to **regional models** for more detailed and accurate predictions.

Regional models will provide better insights into the timing, intensity, and specific impacts of the weather event on a local scale, which is crucial for winter weather forecasting in areas like North Texas.

Here's a list of some commonly used weather forecasting models:

### **Global Models**
1. **Global Forecast System (GFS)** - USA
2. **European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)** - Europe
3. **Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM)** - Canada
4. **UK Met Office Unified Model (UKMO)** - United Kingdom
5. **ACCESS-G** - Australia
6. **ARPEGE** - France
7. **CMA Model** - China

### **Regional Models**
1. **North American Mesoscale Model (NAM)** - USA
2. **High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)** - USA
3. **ICON-D2** - Germany
4. **EURO4** - Europe
5. **Swiss HD** - Switzerland

These models vary in their resolution, forecast range, and specific applications. Global models provide broader coverage and longer-range forecasts, while regional models offer higher resolution and more detailed forecasts for specific areas.

When global models and regional models disagree, it's often best to lean towards the regional models for more localized and accurate forecasts. For North Texas, the **High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)** and **North American Mesoscale Model (NAM)** are particularly reliable for short-term weather events like snowstorms.

Given the situation you described, where the global models have swayed away from the significant snowstorm but the regional models are still showing potential, the regional models (HRRR and NAM) would likely be more accurate for predicting the actual weather impact in North Texas.

Given the scenario where the GFS and Euro models are no longer predicting a snowstorm that they initially showed, here are some steps to consider:

1. **Timing**: As you get closer to the event (within 1-3 days), regional models (like HRRR and NAM) become increasingly reliable.

2. **Consistency**: If regional models continue to show the potential for snow while global models have trended away, lean more towards the regional models.

3. **Expert Analysis**: Pay attention to local meteorologists and weather service updates. They often interpret model data and provide insights based on their expertise.

4. **Blending**: Sometimes, combining insights from both global and regional models can provide a more comprehensive view. Look for common trends and consider the range of possible outcomes.

In short, when you're within a few days of the expected event and regional models consistently indicate snow, it's generally safe to place more trust in those regional models over the global ones.

So imagine having a square and in that square you have 20 squares and divide that into four quadrants. The global models see the entire Square as one square but yet the regional models can actually see individual squares within each quadrant and can isolate and forecast based off those individual squares down to a single square.

[TropicalTundra]

It isn’t picking up on radar for gosh knows what but there is definitely a band of flurries over San Angelo. You can kind of see it on cloud cover maps

[Quixotic]

It isn’t picking up on radar for gosh knows what but there is definitely a band of flurries over San Angelo. You can kind of see it on cloud cover maps

Virga

[Stratton23]

Euro trended toward the GFS, heaviest snow now east of DFW, still 4-6 inches in the metro plex, but alot less than the 18z and 12z runs

[cheezyWXguy]

Don’t know what the ultimate result will be, but I gotta say, not liking the look of the euro at 500mb through 60 hours.

[txtwister78]

CMC ensemble 0z compared to 12z

[Ntxw]

Don’t know what the ultimate result will be, but I gotta say, not liking the look of the euro at 500mb through 60 hours.

Qpf is reduced to the west-nw and now centered se of us to Texarkana.

[cheezyWXguy]

To our friend the euro:

[SnowintheFalls]

Definitely not the trends we were hoping for.

[Brent]

Oh but the Euro was so consistent

This reminds me of last January when our 10 inches turned into an inch 3 days out

[txtwister78]

This is a trend we do need to watch because if there is enough QPF on the backend of this event it's possible we could see a quick transition to all snow across many areas as the colder upper level temps move in from the NW as the coastal low pulls away. Once again timing on that will be critical. Still some moving pieces and despite "warmer" trends for the start of this event, we may be now looking at the end of this precip shield with more focus than we will during the beginning of it.

[rwfromkansas]

I am trying to not get emotional over this, but yikes. We will see what the morning runs bring.

Look, once a trend like this starts, it sometimes continues for many runs. There is time to correct back based on actual development. Hoping for that.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The snow:

[Ralph's Weather]

I'll reserve judgement but at first glance Euro doesn't seem to unrealistic vs a typical Gulf low evolution. I'll look at it more in a bit. The NW snow from a Gulf low was not typical and caused by a perfect phase.

[Brent]

Lol down to almost no snow here on the Euro

But the Euro was so consistent guys

[SnowintheFalls]

Lol down to almost no snow here on the Euro

But the Euro was so consistent guys

If this is indeed a bust, this is huge one for sure. What a letdown.