Texas Winter 2024-2025

[cstrunk]

I'll just choose to ignore every model except the 06z Euro.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Latest from Norman this morning

[iorange55]

Geez. I mean, if we’re trying to find a positive, there is still time for them to massively change again. All it took was 24 hours!

But yeah, the trend is not looking great at the moment.

At least there should be more opportunities later in the month. Its not over!!!

[snownado]

I'll just choose to ignore every model except the 06z Euro.

Are you able to share the map(s)?

[Brent]

Yeah not liking the trends January has not been kind lately

Hopefully things turn around

[orangeblood]

To illustrate just how insane this is becoming. look at the precip charts now between the Euro and NAM

This is a difference of almost 140 miles between precip shields within 48 hours of a weather event. For DFW Airport, over an inch of precip on the Euro to a trace on the NAM

[bubba hotep]

06z Euro still looks good for some.

[Ntxw]

FWIW the ICON 12z now is doing basically what the NAM did.

[Portastorm]

Age old story my friends ... coastal lows always rob moisture from areas further inland in Texas. With the timing of the surface low development off the coast being closer to the timing of the upper level trough/vorticity moving across the state ... there you go. That is assuming it all shakes out like the most recent model runs show. I'm in the camp with orangeblood in that this is a very unusual model change so close to an event. I'm not sure I'm sold on any scenario at the moment.

[orangeblood]

06z Euro still looks good for some.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ggst5jNWwAAPf82?format=png&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ggst6rsXMAAI6Lu?format=png&name=small

There's literally 3 of 50 06Z Euro ensemble members showing this scenario depicted by the latest NAM

[HockeyTx82]

FWIW the ICON 12z now is doing basically what the NAM did.

So question, is the matching the eyeball test? I mean models are models, but if we look out the window or at real time data is what the models showing have true creedance?

Has a model ever said no rain or snow and yet you look out the window and it's raining or snowing?

[txtwister78]

Good morning all...one of the things you're clearly seeing and it was something I mentioned a few days ago on here when models began to show a coastal low developing (Portastorm and I discussed this as well) was typically when that occurs you look for less QPF further north as the coastal low sort of draws in all the moisture and becomes the more dominant feature as it influences the system coming out of the SW. The trends have continued to show that especially across West Texas (my goodness).

However, in that transition zone you're also seeing more colder air in the upper levels filter in on that backend of this precip shield and so where there is enough qpf available you're beginning to see (NAM and Euro) a bit of a rain/snow transition late.

[Brandon8181]

06z Euro still looks good for some.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ggst5jNWwAAPf82?format=png&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ggst6rsXMAAI6Lu?format=png&name=small

This to me looks like the NWS likes the Euro which we know has seemed to be the favored one by many professional meteorologists. If you look at the 6z euro snow fall output looks very similar to winter weather watch.

[orangeblood]

06z Euro still looks good for some.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ggst5jNWwAAPf82?format=png&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ggst6rsXMAAI6Lu?format=png&name=small

This to me looks like the NWS likes the Euro which we know has seemed to be the favored one by many professional meteorologists. If you look at the 6z euro snow fall output looks very similar to winter weather watch.

Logic and reason tells you to stick with the one that's been the most consistent so until it caves (if), this is probably the forecast you stay with for now.

Latest RGEM isn't buying it and neither is the WRF, has heavy sleet/snow/frz rain streaming into North Texas Thursday morning

[bubba hotep]

The Euro EPS seems locked in, but we still have a long way to go. We are still about 12 hrs from 1 & 2 moving onshore and getting sampled better (I wish they would have flown an upper-level mission over the North Pacific). Then 3 is still way out in the North Pacific. That makes me nervous as a lot can change as we wait for it to crash down the Rockies and into our system. Too many moving parts to make me feel good

This was tricky from the start the main players have not moved as forecasted (shocker)

However, the 12z RGEM doubled down!

[Wthrfan]

Latest from Norman this morning
[url]https://i.ibb.co/k8BJGs5/IMG-9801.png [/url]

I’m in north Edmond. Thinking I’m going to get my usual flurries with little to no accumulation.

[Captmorg70]

Do we know when the northern part of the system that we are watching for the phase will be sampled? I assume that will be by tonight?

[snownado]

The Euro EPS seems locked in, but we still have a long way to go. We are still about 12 hrs from 1 & 2 moving onshore and getting sampled better (I wish they would have flown an upper-level mission over the North Pacific). Then 3 is still way out in the North Pacific. That makes me nervous as a lot can change as we wait for it to crash down the Rockies and into our system. Too many moving parts to make me feel good

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GgjoHhTWkAAtu2m?format=jpg&name=small

This was tricky from the start the main players have not moved as forecasted (shocker)

However, the 12z RGEM doubled down!

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2025010712/075/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

The RGEM and EURO are pretty much outliers at this point...

Even the early frames of the HRRR are looking more NAM/GFS-ish...

[Cerlin]

Hopping in here for a rare post, but while the NAM runs are concerning I wouldn't put all of my stock into it. We've had several events where the NAM deviated significantly from what happened in reality as it started to show the event in range. The model is really best at about 36 hours because for some reason, its solutions tend to diverge more chaotically as it gets farther away in simulation time from its initialization time. In modeling, something like a difference in a microphysics parameterization scheme can cause wildly different results when the overall physics are largely showing the same solution, and for the NAM's case, it is showing the track and speed of the low relatively consistent with the global models and even some of the other mesoscale models like the RGEM. Remember, when dealing with these events it's all about trends. As long as ensembles and other short range models show precipitation, there's reason to build trust that an event is possible, even if the incoming shortwave near Baja california is starting to indicate there will be overall a warmer airmass creeping into the plains which will decrease snow likelihood south of the red river. But, that being said, if the 12z NAM solution appears on the HRRR by tomorrow morning and starts to creep into ensembles more and more as the next 24 hours happens, I'd start to hit the panic button. However, there's no reason to do that yet--and the meteorologists at the local NWS offices around North Texas seem to agree.

[orangeblood]

The Euro EPS seems locked in, but we still have a long way to go. We are still about 12 hrs from 1 & 2 moving onshore and getting sampled better (I wish they would have flown an upper-level mission over the North Pacific). Then 3 is still way out in the North Pacific. That makes me nervous as a lot can change as we wait for it to crash down the Rockies and into our system. Too many moving parts to make me feel good

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GgjoHhTWkAAtu2m?format=jpg&name=small

This was tricky from the start the main players have not moved as forecasted (shocker)

However, the 12z RGEM doubled down!

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2025010712/075/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

The RGEM and EURO are pretty much outliers at this point...

Even the early frames of the HRRR are looking more NAM/GFS-ish...

Hi Res WRF is on the Euro side, there are no outliers at this point