Texas Winter 2024-2025

[cstrunk]

GEFS jumped north and west, and the bullseye is just to my east!

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXZTd.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXZTd.png

Gross.

[downsouthman1]

El Paso about to get in on some banding action.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

All those years of bad trends here and look at this...

We don't just get a good trend we get a crazy trend

As far as I know the schools are open tomorrow still

You definitely looking better for snow. Hope you get pounded. I hope to see close to 6in. We shall see

[Texas Snow]

That’s what she said

[Texas Snow]

If this was already posted my apologies, I was picking my daughter up from the airport earlier (luckily she came home early as her flight into Dallas tomorrow morning has already been cancelled)

Here is an evening update from FWD

SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Thursday Night/

Quiet and cold evening across North and Central Texas with
current temperatures in the 30s but dewpoints very low in the
10s/20s. The dry airmass in place will be key to the smorgasbord
of precip types we are anticipating tomorrow with the winter
storm. Latest guidance such as the HRRR indicate precip will
rapidly spread into the forecast area around 10Z and spread over
all of North and Central Texas by 15Z. Forecast soundings show a
warm nose aloft initially along with very dry air in the low
levels, so a mix of freezing rain and sleet is most likely when
precip starts. However, as the airmass saturates and temperatures
fall to the wet bulb temp, precip should transition by late
morning to a cold rain in our southern counties, a mix of sleet
and snow in our central counties, and all snow in our northern
counties. As slightly warmer air advects northward during Thursday
afternoon, the rain/mix/snow line should also shift northward
with the HRRR/NAM suggesting it could move as far as just north
of the Metroplex. By Thursday evening, however, CAA will cause the
transition zone to shift back to the south with rain changing
back to sleet/snow Thursday night before ending by Friday
morning.

Needless to say, the transition zone with the mix of precip types
is the most challenging part of the forecast - with our northern
counties expected to see mostly snow and our southern counties
a cold rain. The exact location of the rain/mix/snow line has
huge implications on which areas will see more ice versus snow.
Latest models continue to show the transition zone shifting around
roughly near the I-20 corridor through the event, giving the
Metroplex a mix of all precip types. However, if the transition
zone does not move as far northward as guidance indicates, the
Metroplex could see considerably more snow (which some guidance
such as the GFS suggest) - and vice versa, if the transition zone
shifts further north, less snow and more rain or ice for the DFW
area. Based on the latest guidance, have upped snow amounts
slightly across our northern half and decreased ice amounts a tad,
but amounts remain in the same range as our previous forecast. It
will be quite fascinating meteorologically to see how this event
eventually pans out.

[txtwister78]

For those of us further south who are hoping to cash in on some winter weather .... CFS pretty bullish. Cold and precip galore. Not a bad signal. GFS extended looks similar.

[Cpv17]

For those of us further south who are hoping to cash in on some winter weather .... CFS pretty bullish. Cold and precip galore. Not a bad signal. GFS extended looks similar.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cfs-daily-all-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1736359200/1737590400-d0H3w72NbKk.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cfs-daily-all-avg/conus/total_precip_percent_anom_5day_from_prate/1736359200/1737590400-mRbJ4ZsZYoU.png

Thanks for sharing this. I’ve been trying to find this on X, but no luck.

[WeatherP1]

Where is the best place to buy an F5 button? Mine seems to have broken.

Babbages @ valley view mall, or north star San Antonio

[Ralph's Weather]

Man I should have just gone to bed early feel like Im getting cut watching the temp go up. Got down to 28 now it’s back up to 30. 80% humidity think our friends north and East that have dropped in the mid 20s will really cash in.

26 now, may get to 24 at this rate before bumping against the DP.

[HockeyTx82]

GEFS jumped north and west, and the bullseye is just to my east!

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXZTd.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXZTd.png

Okay seriously what's going on? I fall asleep on the couch and I wake up and now snow is in Oklahoma? Is this a trend or just one run?

What's the HRRR doing?

[Iceresistance]

GEFS jumped north and west, and the bullseye is just to my east!

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXZTd.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXZTd.png

Okay seriously what's going on? I fall asleep on the couch and I wake up and now snow is in Oklahoma? Is this a trend or just one run?

What's the HRRR doing?

It has trended towards Oklahoma, I am very surprised that happened too

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXZhF.gif

[Iceresistance]

Can I order #10, 13, and 18?

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXZhT.png

[Ntxw]

One last hurrah from the Euro. It actually doesn't mix that much except onset out west/southwest. There is a period tomorrow afternoon peak day the rain/snow line (nothing in between) creeps to about I-30 then sharply shifts back south to all snow.

That's a wrap for me tonight.



Should all dream of 2010.

[HockeyTx82]

One last hurrah from the Euro. It actually doesn't mix that much except onset out west/southwest. There is a period tomorrow afternoon peak day the rain/snow line (nothing in between) creeps to about I-30 then sharply shifts back south to all snow.

That's a wrap for me tonight.

https://i.imgur.com/12J3sTX.png

And just above it looks like the hrrr is saying, snow for Texas, don't think so Oklahoma's going to win.....

I wish I never woke up from my nap to check

[Harp.1]

Long range Euro? Anything promising?

[Iceresistance]

Long range Euro? Anything promising?

We just got past the snow part, now we need to wait for the long range part

[Ralph's Weather]

No models besides crazy Canadian are close to cold enough at initialization. Canadian is way too cold. Bizarre that all hi res models are initializing around 4 degrees warm right now. Most models have freeze line along I20 when it is actually south of Lufkin. 26 here in Lindale along I20 now. Some stations as low as 23 around East Texas.

[HockeyTx82]

No models besides crazy Canadian are close to cold enough at initialization. Canadian is way too cold. Bizarre that all hi res models are initializing around 4 degrees warm right now. Most models have freeze line along I20 when it is actually south of Lufkin. 26 here in Lindale along I20 now. Some stations as low as 23 around East Texas.

At this point I don't think temperatures are a problem, it looks like everything is going well North into Oklahoma

[Texas Snow]

You need to look The maps people post better. The hrrr said no such thing. In fact it hasn’t run a full cycle since you fell asleep probably. He only posted gefs.

[gpsnowman]

A winter storm will pass over north Texas Thursday into Friday morning bringing all types of precipitation. We are fortunate that temperatures will be fluctuating back and forth across the freezing point instead of staying below freezing throughout the entire event. Otherwise, this could be a lot worse.
But it is this bobbing back and forth across 32°F which makes forecasting precipitation type AMOUNTS so difficult. Not only do you have to forecast how much sleet, freezing rain, and snow will fall, you also have to calculate how much of it will melt at the same time!
If temps stayed below freezing we would be looking at over a foot of snow in many areas. But since there will be many locations that will bump above 32°F, some significant melting will be occurring in between the falling of sleet and snow. And feezing rain will transition back to just cold rain from time to time before it goes back to freezing rain again.
Although we will see a wintry mix throughout the day Thursday, it will be at its heaviest Thursday night. This is especially true when it comes to the complete transition to snow.
And this snow will be a gloppy wet snow, and in many locations, the flakes will be HUGE, especially Thursday night ! Many parts of north Texas are gonna look like a snow globe.
But keep this in mind: if the forecast surface temperatures are off by as little as 1 degree, this will have a MAJOR impact on the predicted amounts of each precipitation type.
For example, if the temperature turns out to be just 1 or 2 degrees warmer, much of this activity will turn into a cold rain. But if it turns out to be 1 or 2 degrees colder than predicted, the storm will produce higher snow and ice amounts. (To be honest, I was tempted to increase this map's snowfall amounts just in case it does turn out to be colder than expected)
Yes, it is going to be that close! That is why this forecast map will likely have errors in it when all is said and done.
Stay safe and warm and be thankful temperatures won't be in the 20s when this thing passes overhead!

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