Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Lagreeneyes03]

Any chance of this sneaking north to include DFW? Last system was nada for Oklahoma until it wasn't. I'd hate for the winter to be a complete waste of time for us.

[Ralph's Weather]

Even after last nights model runs, still lots of uncertainty involving this event next week....the latest individual Euro ensemble members are still all over the map with snowfall depictions! The s/w will come ashore on the coast of British Columbia tomorrow.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a/1737093600/1737612000-OvzvYyWeRDc.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b/1737093600/1737612000-PuQ1WFwMjb4.png

So.... you're saying NTX still has a chance? lol

We need to root for Canadian/ICON set to come true to get good snow up to I20.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

[xpost] https://x.com/nwssanantonio/status/1880 ... 7t10NsZo2Q[/xpost]

Forgot to post this.

[Ralph's Weather]

Any chance of this sneaking north to include DFW? Last system was nada for Oklahoma until it wasn't. I'd hate for the winter to be a complete waste of time for us.

Yes especially the south side. And it won't take much moisture to accumulate with these temps.

[Gotwood]

Any chance of this sneaking north to include DFW? Last system was nada for Oklahoma until it wasn't. I'd hate for the winter to be a complete waste of time for us.

I’m drinking some Hopium this morning and thinking it might.

[Charleswachal]

Even after last nights model runs, still lots of uncertainty involving this event next week....the latest individual Euro ensemble members are still all over the map with snowfall depictions! The s/w will come ashore on the coast of British Columbia tomorrow.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a/1737093600/1737612000-OvzvYyWeRDc.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b/1737093600/1737612000-PuQ1WFwMjb4.png

So.... you're saying NTX still has a chance? lol

We need to root for Canadian/ICON set to come true to get good snow up to I20.

Noooo!!! We don't want it that far north.... keep the bullseye over houston. If it pulls too far north we wikl get pulled into the rain/ice instead of snow.

[Cpv17]

Not sure what ensemble means look like, but the op’s have been too far N or E for my liking. Hoping this can pull back SW.

[Ralph's Weather]

So.... you're saying NTX still has a chance? lol

We need to root for Canadian/ICON set to come true to get good snow up to I20.

Noooo!!! We don't want it that far north.... keep the bullseye over houston. If it pulls too far north we wikl get pulled into the rain/ice instead of snow.

As of now I think the cold will stay deep enough for y'all but those to your south could still have issues. If I20 gets it just from northern stream you should be good but if the Gulf low trends north then that is what you need to watch for ice

[Gotwood]

The latest HRRR has temps Sunday morning a few degrees colder than the ICON in most places. Noticed also a -28 degree reading around Saskatoon Canada. Temp ICON has for that area same time is -21.

[orangeblood]

Latest NAM much more aligned at 500mb with CMC than any other global. Now that we're starting to come into short range guidance, worth tracking!

NAM


CMC


For comparison, here is the GFS..

[Charleswachal]

We need to root for Canadian/ICON set to come true to get good snow up to I20.

Noooo!!! We don't want it that far north.... keep the bullseye over houston. If it pulls too far north we wikl get pulled into the rain/ice instead of snow.

As of now I think the cold will stay deep enough for y'all but those to your south could still have issues. If I20 gets it just from northern stream you should be good but if the Gulf low trends north then that is what you need to watch for ice

Well I technically live on the south side of houston. I know that yesterday some of the computer models were actually showing the bullseye on the south side of the city which I was extremely ecstatic about. Now it looks like the bullseye has shifted Northeast of Houston but still shows us getting a few inches

[Wthrfan]

I'll be off the board for a few days, my other grandmother just passed away this morning. She was about to be 99.

Sorry for your loss. 99...that's a good, long life.

[Cpv17]

Noooo!!! We don't want it that far north.... keep the bullseye over houston. If it pulls too far north we wikl get pulled into the rain/ice instead of snow.

As of now I think the cold will stay deep enough for y'all but those to your south could still have issues. If I20 gets it just from northern stream you should be good but if the Gulf low trends north then that is what you need to watch for ice

Well I technically live on the south side of houston. I know that yesterday some of the computer models were actually showing the bullseye on the south side of the city which I was extremely ecstatic about. Now it looks like the bullseye has shifted Northeast of Houston but still shows us getting a few inches

Long ways to go for us south of I-10. The mesoscale models may come in better for us than the globals.

[Wthrfan]

Hopefully you guys in S.Texas get in on the action. Looks like me and Brent will miss out on most of the fun this go around,but we had ours last week. Hoping we will have another chance before winter leaves us.

[MississippiWx]

12z ICON is a big step in the wrong direction. Went to the GFS solution from the past several days. Just goes to show the fragility of this pattern.

[Stratton23]

not concerned about the ICON, it generally isnt a good model for precipitation, just temperatures

[bubba hotep]

12z ICON is a big step in the wrong direction. Went to the GFS solution from the past several days. Just goes to show the fragility of this pattern.

12z ICON

[MississippiWx]

not concerned about the ICON, it generally isnt a good model for precipitation, just temperatures

Ehhh, I've watched this stuff for long enough. I'm going to be concerned until I see snow falling.

[rwfromkansas]

Any chance of this sneaking north to include DFW? Last system was nada for Oklahoma until it wasn't. I'd hate for the winter to be a complete waste of time for us.

I have been busy with work, and I'm kind of glad since I was worried this would happen. Just a dry cold for us.

We either get nothing or a wet snow after a wintry mix. Can't just get a decent snow.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z ICON is a big step in the wrong direction. Went to the GFS solution from the past several days. Just goes to show the fragility of this pattern.

12z ICON

For real. In the past I’ve liked considering it but it’s getting harder to take seriously with its lack of consistency on the last two systems - not just in temps/precip but 500mb pattern as well. It scored a couple of big hurricane wins with Ian and Beryl, and has had mixed performances with winter weather, so I’m on the fence between “halfway decent model” and “blind squirrel finding a nut”. At the end of the day though the overall model consensus is what matters most.