Texas Winter 2024-2025
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Any chance of this sneaking north to include DFW? Last system was nada for Oklahoma until it wasn't. I'd hate for the winter to be a complete waste of time for us.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
GeauxTigers wrote:orangeblood wrote:Even after last nights model runs, still lots of uncertainty involving this event next week....the latest individual Euro ensemble members are still all over the map with snowfall depictions! The s/w will come ashore on the coast of British Columbia tomorrow.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a/1737093600/1737612000-OvzvYyWeRDc.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b/1737093600/1737612000-PuQ1WFwMjb4.png
So.... you're saying NTX still has a chance? lol
We need to root for Canadian/ICON set to come true to get good snow up to I20.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Any chance of this sneaking north to include DFW? Last system was nada for Oklahoma until it wasn't. I'd hate for the winter to be a complete waste of time for us.
Yes especially the south side. And it won't take much moisture to accumulate with these temps.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Any chance of this sneaking north to include DFW? Last system was nada for Oklahoma until it wasn't. I'd hate for the winter to be a complete waste of time for us.
I’m drinking some Hopium this morning and thinking it might.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Ralph's Weather wrote:GeauxTigers wrote:orangeblood wrote:Even after last nights model runs, still lots of uncertainty involving this event next week....the latest individual Euro ensemble members are still all over the map with snowfall depictions! The s/w will come ashore on the coast of British Columbia tomorrow.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a/1737093600/1737612000-OvzvYyWeRDc.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b/1737093600/1737612000-PuQ1WFwMjb4.png
So.... you're saying NTX still has a chance? lol
We need to root for Canadian/ICON set to come true to get good snow up to I20.
Noooo!!! We don't want it that far north.... keep the bullseye over houston. If it pulls too far north we wikl get pulled into the rain/ice instead of snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Not sure what ensemble means look like, but the op’s have been too far N or E for my liking. Hoping this can pull back SW.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Charleswachal wrote:Ralph's Weather wrote:GeauxTigers wrote:
So.... you're saying NTX still has a chance? lol
We need to root for Canadian/ICON set to come true to get good snow up to I20.
Noooo!!! We don't want it that far north.... keep the bullseye over houston. If it pulls too far north we wikl get pulled into the rain/ice instead of snow.
As of now I think the cold will stay deep enough for y'all but those to your south could still have issues. If I20 gets it just from northern stream you should be good but if the Gulf low trends north then that is what you need to watch for ice
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
The latest HRRR has temps Sunday morning a few degrees colder than the ICON in most places. Noticed also a -28 degree reading around Saskatoon Canada. Temp ICON has for that area same time is -21.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Latest NAM much more aligned at 500mb with CMC than any other global. Now that we're starting to come into short range guidance, worth tracking!
NAM

CMC

For comparison, here is the GFS..

NAM

CMC

For comparison, here is the GFS..

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Ralph's Weather wrote:Charleswachal wrote:Ralph's Weather wrote:We need to root for Canadian/ICON set to come true to get good snow up to I20.
Noooo!!! We don't want it that far north.... keep the bullseye over houston. If it pulls too far north we wikl get pulled into the rain/ice instead of snow.
As of now I think the cold will stay deep enough for y'all but those to your south could still have issues. If I20 gets it just from northern stream you should be good but if the Gulf low trends north then that is what you need to watch for ice
Well I technically live on the south side of houston. I know that yesterday some of the computer models were actually showing the bullseye on the south side of the city which I was extremely ecstatic about. Now it looks like the bullseye has shifted Northeast of Houston but still shows us getting a few inches
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
HockeyTx82 wrote:I'll be off the board for a few days, my other grandmother just passed away this morning. She was about to be 99.
Sorry for your loss. 99...that's a good, long life.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Charleswachal wrote:Ralph's Weather wrote:Charleswachal wrote:Noooo!!! We don't want it that far north.... keep the bullseye over houston. If it pulls too far north we wikl get pulled into the rain/ice instead of snow.
As of now I think the cold will stay deep enough for y'all but those to your south could still have issues. If I20 gets it just from northern stream you should be good but if the Gulf low trends north then that is what you need to watch for ice
Well I technically live on the south side of houston. I know that yesterday some of the computer models were actually showing the bullseye on the south side of the city which I was extremely ecstatic about. Now it looks like the bullseye has shifted Northeast of Houston but still shows us getting a few inches
Long ways to go for us south of I-10. The mesoscale models may come in better for us than the globals.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Hopefully you guys in S.Texas get in on the action. Looks like me and Brent will miss out on most of the fun this go around,but we had ours last week. Hoping we will have another chance before winter leaves us.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
12z ICON is a big step in the wrong direction. Went to the GFS solution from the past several days. Just goes to show the fragility of this pattern.
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This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
not concerned about the ICON, it generally isnt a good model for precipitation, just temperatures
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
MississippiWx wrote:12z ICON is a big step in the wrong direction. Went to the GFS solution from the past several days. Just goes to show the fragility of this pattern.
12z ICON

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Stratton23 wrote:not concerned about the ICON, it generally isnt a good model for precipitation, just temperatures
Ehhh, I've watched this stuff for long enough. I'm going to be concerned until I see snow falling.

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This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Any chance of this sneaking north to include DFW? Last system was nada for Oklahoma until it wasn't. I'd hate for the winter to be a complete waste of time for us.
I have been busy with work, and I'm kind of glad since I was worried this would happen. Just a dry cold for us.
We either get nothing or a wet snow after a wintry mix. Can't just get a decent snow.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
bubba hotep wrote:MississippiWx wrote:12z ICON is a big step in the wrong direction. Went to the GFS solution from the past several days. Just goes to show the fragility of this pattern.
12z ICON
For real. In the past I’ve liked considering it but it’s getting harder to take seriously with its lack of consistency on the last two systems - not just in temps/precip but 500mb pattern as well. It scored a couple of big hurricane wins with Ian and Beryl, and has had mixed performances with winter weather, so I’m on the fence between “halfway decent model” and “blind squirrel finding a nut”. At the end of the day though the overall model consensus is what matters most.
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