Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8501 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 17, 2025 2:30 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:cajungal I do enjoy swimming, but thats the only thing the heat is somewhat useful for, other than that its just an inconvenience to me, and even then texas beaches are absolutely garbage, thats about it, other than that my AC is staying at 60 for the next 6 months, and the Yukon would be a perfect fit!


How about the Sierras? They measure their snow in feet. Forget measuring in inches over there lol


Too extreme probably, at some point all the snow will look the same :lol:. Maybe somewhere in the front range where chinook winds can get up to 70F even in winter and snow cover doesn't stick around forever until the next big storm. It can dump in a storm and be golfing in a few weeks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8502 Postby cajungal » Mon Feb 17, 2025 2:33 pm

Stratton23 wrote:cajungal I do enjoy swimming, but thats the only thing the heat is somewhat useful for, other than that its just an inconvenience to me, and even then texas beaches are absolutely garbage, thats about it, other than that my AC is staying at 60 for the next 6 months, and the Yukon would be a perfect fit!


Go to Barrow and do the Arctic plunge! I wouldn’t do Texas beaches. But Alabama gulf shores has an amazing beach only 4 hour drive from me
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8503 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 2:41 pm

FWD put the area under a Cold Weather Warning.......

Here we go
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8504 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 2:49 pm

While surface temps are going to be cold overnight and into the early morning hours especially for those further north, it's the wind chill temps (feels like temp) that will make this dangerous for those who have to be outside for any extended length of time and so with that mind (even without the frozen precip threat), it will be interesting to see how schools approach this across the warned area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8505 Postby DallasAg » Mon Feb 17, 2025 3:01 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:cajungal I do enjoy swimming, but thats the only thing the heat is somewhat useful for, other than that its just an inconvenience to me, and even then texas beaches are absolutely garbage, thats about it, other than that my AC is staying at 60 for the next 6 months, and the Yukon would be a perfect fit!


How about the Sierras? They measure their snow in feet. Forget measuring in inches over there lol


Too extreme probably, at some point all the snow will look the same :lol:. Maybe somewhere in the front range where chinook winds can get up to 70F even in winter and snow cover doesn't stick around forever until the next big storm. It can dump in a storm and be golfing in a few weeks.

Don't be fooled, the front range can get into the high 90s and around 100 in the summer. Granted it's with dewpoints in the 20s so it doesn't feel so bad. Head up to the higher country - there are some beautiful places like Westcliffe, Salida, Gunnison, Buena Vista, Alamosa, etc. They're up closer to 7500', so the elevation keeps the heat in check. And although the snow sticks around a bit more than in the front range, it's never too long and you get plenty of sunshine too. Once you get much above that you're talking non-stop snow from Nov through May and it can be a real beatdown, even if you live in a ski resort town I think they tend to get sick of it by the end of ski season.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8506 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 17, 2025 3:34 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:FWD put the area under a Cold Weather Warning.......

Here we go


With wind chills between 0F to minus 10F ....just your "normal" cold snap :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8507 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 17, 2025 4:05 pm

Tulsa now saying a foot possible with blizzard conditions near the Kansas border :double: :froze:

Yeah totally normal cold snap. Nothing to see here :lol: :spam:

I haven't seen a storm with this much potential here in 3 years at least
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8508 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 17, 2025 4:15 pm

Brent wrote:Tulsa now saying a foot possible with blizzard conditions near the Kansas border :double: :froze:

Yeah totally normal cold snap. Nothing to see here :lol: :spam:

I haven't seen a storm with this much potential here in 3 years at least


As of right now, the ground zero for this event is your region to include adjacent Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas in terms of cold and snow. Enjoy it my friend! The shortwave itself isn't anything spectacular, but the front will enhance precip and wind potential.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8509 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 17, 2025 4:22 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:Tulsa now saying a foot possible with blizzard conditions near the Kansas border :double: :froze:

Yeah totally normal cold snap. Nothing to see here :lol: :spam:

I haven't seen a storm with this much potential here in 3 years at least


As of right now, the ground zero for this event is your region to include adjacent Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas in terms of cold and snow. Enjoy it my friend! The shortwave itself isn't anything spectacular, but the front will enhance precip and wind potential.


It's the long duration to me that has consistently shown up with possibly 18 hours of precip... Like that's more like when I went to KC and saw 10 inches tbh

Or January if it had accumulated better during the day and yet we still had 6 inches(should have been more if it was colder etc)

I mean I don't expect a foot in Tulsa but I definitely think 3-5 ain't happening either
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8510 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 17, 2025 4:31 pm

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:Tulsa now saying a foot possible with blizzard conditions near the Kansas border :double: :froze:

Yeah totally normal cold snap. Nothing to see here :lol: :spam:

I haven't seen a storm with this much potential here in 3 years at least


As of right now, the ground zero for this event is your region to include adjacent Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas in terms of cold and snow. Enjoy it my friend! The shortwave itself isn't anything spectacular, but the front will enhance precip and wind potential.


It's the long duration to me that has consistently shown up with possibly 18 hours of precip... Like that's more like when I went to KC and saw 10 inches tbh

Or January if it had accumulated better during the day and yet we still had 6 inches(should have been more if it was colder etc)

I mean I don't expect a foot in Tulsa but I definitely think 3-5 ain't happening either


The only fail mode would be if the upper frontal boundary is further south due to the stronger surge of height rises for lesser totals, but it's getting pretty close to the event for that drastic of a shift. You've benefited from the southern shifts thus far. But disturbances riding W-E along any front is where it can be fun.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8511 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 17, 2025 4:34 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
As of right now, the ground zero for this event is your region to include adjacent Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas in terms of cold and snow. Enjoy it my friend! The shortwave itself isn't anything spectacular, but the front will enhance precip and wind potential.


It's the long duration to me that has consistently shown up with possibly 18 hours of precip... Like that's more like when I went to KC and saw 10 inches tbh

Or January if it had accumulated better during the day and yet we still had 6 inches(should have been more if it was colder etc)

I mean I don't expect a foot in Tulsa but I definitely think 3-5 ain't happening either


The only fail mode would be if the upper frontal boundary is further south due to the stronger surge of height rises for lesser totals, but it's getting pretty close to the event for that drastic of a shift. You've benefited from the southern shifts thus far. But disturbances riding W-E along any front is where it can be fun.


Yeah tbh I've been waiting for the precip to dry out like last year but I mean we're inside 12 hours now... I think the window on fail modes is closing unless we just somehow stay sleet for way longer than we're supposed to but even that doesn't sound correct to me. I'm honestly not even sure we'll see any sleet

From the AFD :eek: :double:

Of particular note with this system will be the SWE ratios well
above climatology for this area, especially points farther north.
The result will be a dry snow that will easily be blown by gusty
north winds, with significant drifting and reductions to
visibility likely. In fact conditions may be close to blizzard in
some areas, particularly over the more open country northwest of
Tulsa as wind gusts approach 30 mph.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8512 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 4:40 pm

orangeblood wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:FWD put the area under a Cold Weather Warning.......

Here we go


With wind chills between 0F to minus 10F ....just your "normal" cold snap :wink:


Nothing to see here, winter cancel.

I've got my shorts, flip flops and t-shirts ready. I'm filling the pool tonight!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8513 Postby Quixotic » Mon Feb 17, 2025 5:34 pm

Nothing could go wrong.

I think the biggest fail I ever saw was in Pennsylvania. The prediction was blizzard conditions. 1-2’ of snow. They were shutting down the freeway I was on at 11 pm. I got off the ramp just at 11 and checked into the hotel. Turns out it cut up and moved much faster and the result was 5” of snow which was mostly on the ground while I got my bags out of the car. lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8514 Postby Fifty Rock » Mon Feb 17, 2025 6:04 pm

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
It's the long duration to me that has consistently shown up with possibly 18 hours of precip... Like that's more like when I went to KC and saw 10 inches tbh

Or January if it had accumulated better during the day and yet we still had 6 inches(should have been more if it was colder etc)

I mean I don't expect a foot in Tulsa but I definitely think 3-5 ain't happening either



The only fail mode would be if the upper frontal boundary is further south due to the stronger surge of height rises for lesser totals, but it's getting pretty close to the event for that drastic of a shift. You've benefited from the southern shifts thus far. But disturbances riding W-E along any front is where it can be fun.


Yeah tbh I've been waiting for the precip to dry out like last year but I mean we're inside 12 hours now... I think the window on fail modes is closing unless we just somehow stay sleet for way longer than we're supposed to but even that doesn't sound correct to me. I'm honestly not even sure we'll see any sleet

From the AFD :eek: :double:

Of particular note with this system will be the SWE ratios well
above climatology for this area, especially points farther north.
The result will be a dry snow that will easily be blown by gusty
north winds, with significant drifting and reductions to
visibility likely. In fact conditions may be close to blizzard in
some areas, particularly over the more open country northwest of
Tulsa as wind gusts approach 30 mph.


Ok, I will be picking up some Beer and Pizza, who want’s to head up that way? I’m sure Brent has room for a few people.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8515 Postby wxman22 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 6:08 pm

The mesoscale models are trending quicker with the front. And it now looks like we may transition to freezing rain/sleet here during the peak of the precip instead of the tail end of the event.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8516 Postby GeauxTigers » Mon Feb 17, 2025 6:11 pm

wxman22 wrote:The mesoscale models are trending quicker with the front. And it now looks like we may transition to freezing rain/sleet here during the peak of the precip instead of the tail end of the event.


What’s the timing? School is gonna be a nightmare if this comes in during day. Granted, I’m a little farther east by 2 counties, but don’t wanna get stuck being on roads.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8517 Postby wxman22 » Mon Feb 17, 2025 6:22 pm

GeauxTigers wrote:
wxman22 wrote:The mesoscale models are trending quicker with the front. And it now looks like we may transition to freezing rain/sleet here during the peak of the precip instead of the tail end of the event.


What’s the timing? School is gonna be a nightmare if this comes in during day. Granted, I’m a little farther east by 2 counties, but don’t wanna get stuck being on roads.


The NAM doesn't show frozen precip for your area until after 6 pm tomorrow, but worth keeping an eye on just in case the freezing line moves in faster than anticipated.


Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8518 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 17, 2025 6:25 pm

Front coming into the picture in southern Kansas.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8519 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 17, 2025 6:31 pm

:double: also it's gotten noticeably darker here

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8520 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Feb 17, 2025 6:45 pm

Ntxw wrote:Front coming into the picture in southern Kansas.

https://i.imgur.com/92jhzHv.png

I keep reading 3pm for fropa here. Does it look like it could come in earlier than that? Southern Kansas isn't that far.
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