2024 EPAC Season

[Pasmorade]

I wonder...what would have to occur in the EPAC for ACE to scrape normal levels.

[cycloneye]

Looks like this will be a powerful hurricane as the models agree.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure has developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
this morning, which is due in part to the remnants of Nadine.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days, while the system moves westward at around 15 mph away from the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Landsea

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it's ex Nadine.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Will this keep the name Nadine?

[cycloneye]

They don't mention the remnants of Nadine.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next couple of days, while the system
moves westward at around 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Invest 90E is up

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1848466192002138414

[Cyclenall]

Now that the Epac bagged a cat5, I thought about the last time both the Atlantic and Epac had a cat5 during the season, well it wasn't long ago: 2023!

[Category5Kaiju]

Now that the Epac bagged a cat5, I thought about the last time both the Atlantic and Epac had a cat5 during the season, well it wasn't long ago: 2023!

And before that, 2018. And before that, never.

I wonder if with warmer oceans we may see more cases in the future with the EPAC and Atlantic featuring Category 5s during the same year

[Kingarabian]

Models in agreement on a weak TC developing near 130W and crossing over into the CPAC.

[cycloneye]

Western East Pacific:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently located well
to the southwest of the southwestern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at
about 15 mph. This system is expected to move into the central
Pacific basin on Wednesday or Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Pasmorade]

About 1300 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii:
An area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower activity.
Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for some slow
development over the next day or so as the system moves
northwestward around 15 mph. The system is expected to cross into
the Western Pacific Basin Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

What are the chances this could develop prior to a crossover?

[Pasmorade]

Oh.

About 1300 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii:
An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development of this system is not expected while it
moves northwestward around 15 mph. The system is expected to cross
into the Western Pacific Basin tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest GFS run is bonkers: shows quite an incredible burst of activity... Two hurricanes, one major.

[Kingarabian]

Latest GFS run is bonkers: shows quite an incredible burst of activity... Two hurricanes, one major.

It has a pretty strong EPAC WWB.

[cycloneye]

It was a below average season with 13/5/3 and the only big impact from a hurricane to Mexico was John. Also the ACE was well below average with 82.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NHC_Pacific/status/1863593375192305760

[Kingarabian]

Slowest since 2010?

[cycloneye]

The final tracks and summary table are up from the 2024 season.

 https://x.com/NHC_Pacific/status/1895527989926117566

[Hurricanehink]

The final tracks and summary table are up from the 2024 season.

 https://x.com/NHC_Pacific/status/1895527989926117566

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2024_East_Pacific_Hurricane_Season_Summary_Table.pdf - as I try to avoid the platform formerly known as Twitter, here's the direct NHC link.