SIO: ERROL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

First visible images shows that very tiny eye.

[Teban54]

This is the kind of storm that has overperformance written all over it, even if not as insane as the long-range HAFS runs a few days ago.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/xoriwx/status/1912314416718061935

[cycloneye]

It has to be much more that 80kt.

29S ERROL 250416 0000 14.1S 119.7E SHEM 80 976

[WaveBreaking]

Maybe those bonkers HAFS runs were onto something

[sasha_B]

It has to be much more that 80kt.

29S ERROL 250416 0000 14.1S 119.7E SHEM 80 976

The JTWC's last Dvorak fix was a T5.0, with a note acknowledging ongoing RI, and Errol's appearanc has only improved - and substantially - in the two hours since then. It's hard to imagine 1-minute sustained winds being less than 90kt right now.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1912336499041005869

[WaveBreaking]

Thick CMG ring, WMG pixels in eye. I’m no Dvorak expert, but I even feel like placing this at 100 kts would be a bit on the conservative side.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:33 am WST on Wednesday 16 April 2025

Tropical Cyclone Errol (Category 2) was located at 8:00 am AWST near 14.0S
119.8E, that is 515 km north northwest of Broome and 540 km west northwest of
Kuri Bay, and was moving west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Errol is expected to continue intensifying to reach a severe
category 3 tropical cyclone later today.

Errol is currently moving west, but is expected to turn to the southeast from
tonight and begin moving towards the west Kimberley coast on Thursday.

Errol may weaken to a category 1 cyclone as it approaches the coast late on
Friday. Despite the weakening, gales may still occur along exposed parts of the
coast overnight on Friday or early Saturday.

Impacts associated with tropical cyclone Errol are not expected along coast
within the next 48 hours.

[WaveBreaking]

[sasha_B]

Between the manual Dvorak fix of 6.0 at 230z and the last few raw ADT numbers (6.2, 6.1, 6.0) it's quite possible that Errol is already nearing its forecast peak intensity of 120kt. It may be approaching a pleateau now, but this has been a rather impressive run of rapid intensification, and conditions aren't expected to become unfavourable for 12+ hours yet.

[Teban54]

[kevin]

With these cases of ERI and (near-)pinhole eyes, Dvorak often lags behind the true intensity. We for example saw this with Milton last year when during its initial ERI Dvorak was only at 4.7 - 5.2 (80 - 95 kt) while the true intensity of 120 kt at 1200 UTC / Oct 7 was much closer to the raw T# 6.2 - 6.6 (120 - 130 kt).

As such I'd also strongly favor increased reliance on raw T# in combination with visual confirmation for the current intensity of Errol. Raw T# are currently at 6.5, which makes me believe that Errol's intensity is close to that of Milton during the timestamp I mentioned above. Comparing satellite images of Milton and Errol also shows a similar visual structure with Errol being even 'cleaner' at this stage around the eye. As such I'd put the current intensity at 115 - 125 kt.

[kevin]

CDO rapidly cooling, average CDO temperature is now down to -77C, raw T# up to 6.6.

[cycloneye]

Perfect.

[cycloneye]

REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Errol has developed into a category 3 cyclone
displaying an eye. Position is based on animated satellite and rapidscan VIS
imagery with good confidence.

Intensity 80 kn based on Dvorak analysis. Dvorak analysis: DT is 6.5 based on
eye pattern W surrounding and OW/WMG eye temp. MET is 4.0 and PT 4.5. FT and
CI=5.0 are constrained. Objective aids have started catching up with the rapid
development. Objective intensity estimates (1-minute average) at 0600UTC: ADT
92 kn, AiDT 98 kn, DPRINT 91 kn and SATCON 74 kn (0340 UTC).

Environmental conditions are favourable for further development. Sea surface
temperatures are near 30C along the forecast track, and deep layer moisture is
in place around the system. Errol lies along the axis of an upper level
anticyclone and CIMSS analysed deep layer wind shear is 8 kn from the
northeast.

A shortwave upper trough over Western Australia is enhancing poleward outflow
somewhat and there is reasonable upper divergence analysed to the south of the
circulation. Further development is forecast in the next 12 to 24 h to a peak
of 100 kn (category 4) by Thursday morning. Being a small system, Errol is
expected to react quickly to the change in environmental conditions from late
Thursday as it gets influenced by increasing wind shear and dry air intrusion.
Hence, Errol is forecast to weaken to category 1 or even below tropical cyclone
strength as it approaches the west Kimberley coast on Saturday.

The system is expected to begin recurving towards the southeast tonight as the
influence of a mid-level ridge to the south weakens. An amplifying upper trough
over southwest WA is expected to steer the system southeast from Thursday,
towards the west Kimberley coast. The depth and intensity of Errol hasn t been
captured fully by the deterministic model runs. As a result, there is large
uncertainty in its movement along its track. On its current forecast, Errol is
expected to make landfall as a tropical low near Cape Leveque on Saturday
afternoon.

[Hurricane2022]

Per MW imagery, Errol really did a very brief ERC. I hope he can clear his new and beautiful eye before shear kicks in.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/JavaHurricane/status/1912376953602216055



 https://x.com/zeb199818/status/1912419341007794314


 https://x.com/zeb199818/status/1912397624503857565


 https://x.com/JavaHurricane/status/1912376953602216055

[cycloneye]

Not that 865 mb cyclone but agree that HAFS nailed it.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1912462625025249518

[Hurricane2022]

Errol is clearly making a run to 865 mbs rn .
ALL HAIL HIS MAJESTY KING HAFS-A THE FIRST!!!