2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[DunedinDave]

Some hints on the 18z GFS of weak low pressure trying to consolidate somewhere near the yucatan channel around the 3-4th, not much though

Looks like it has it as a hurricane entering the southern Gulf at the end of its run.

That said, it is happy hour.

[Stratton23]

00z GFS still trying to develop a weak system in the yucatan channel at day 9

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS seems to like the idea of a CAG-born system by the first week of June.

[ChrisH-UK]

The 00z run of ECWMF is now showing something. Something to keep a eye on over the next few days may be come a TC in the gulf or could well end up been a storm in the East Pacific rather the been a storm in the gulf if the usual west moving trend holds out.

[Kingarabian]

The 00z run of ECWMF is now showing something. Something to keep a eye on over the next few days may be come a TC in the gulf or could well end up been a storm in the East Pacific rather the been a storm in the gulf if the usual west moving trend holds out.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9345/5owJg2.gif [/url]

Long range Euro has been on and off the past 5 days in regards to this. Which gives the GFS some credibility.

[AutoPenalti]

Fantasy range GFS blows it up into a intensifying TC approaching the GOM/A

[TomballEd]

The GFS system is not the same as the Euro system from what I see. GFS is from the CAG, the Euro looks to be forming off the tail end of a trough.

Maybe I'm wrong, the few Euro ensemble models that pick up on this seem to start down in Central America.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1927421182443217274

[Steve]

The GFS system is not the same as the Euro system from what I see. GFS is from the CAG, the Euro looks to be forming off the tail end of a trough.

Maybe I'm wrong, the few Euro ensemble models that pick up on this seem to start down in Central America.

Looks like each of them (maybe more so the EC) leave a piece of a trough back that is what gets going (presumably in conjunction with the CAG).

The EC and Australian bias-corrected look the most likely for MJO to swing over through 8.

EC


BOMM

[Stratton23]

18z GFS continues its shenanigans lol, but i am becoming more interested in the 7-10th time frame

[BobHarlem]

6z GFS and 0z Euro both hinting at something in the Eastern Gulf June 10-12 (Early season slop)

[TomballEd]

~20% EPS members like something in the Gulf ~June 10. Or about 80% don't. I'm glass 1/5th full optimistic. Ensemble mean PWAT looks dry, probably why ~80% of the 0Z members are not impressed.

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs is a bit for June. First one of these this season, but it's been fairly persistent for the last several runs on something happening around here (Gulf to Atl on Ensembles)
Starts south of Cuba in the West Caribbean around a week from Saturday. I guess we could start June 1st with a lemon. !2z euro doesn't really show anything this time, after hinting at something before. I'd probably go for that instead.

[Teban54]

Significant increase on 12z GEFS for the Western Caribbean / Gulf system in the 8-10 days time frame, compared to earlier runs.

The Euro ensembles show a few lows, but are largely unenthusiastic. Let's see if this sticks on the GEFS.

[floridasun]

gfs shot out system before june 1 but i hear only one doing it now other days their was few models show it in gulf

[TomballEd]

Significant increase on 12z GEFS for the Western Caribbean / Gulf system in the 8-10 days time frame, compared to earlier runs.

The Euro ensembles show a few lows, but are largely unenthusiastic. Let's see if this sticks on the GEFS.

https://i.postimg.cc/Y0Wp7Ynw/43504624.gif

If what I heard about the GFS and its enthusiasm for generating TCs in the W. Carib hasn't changed from a met now at NHC hasn't changed in ~10 years, the GFS uses a simplifying assumption that latent heat from convection only travels vertically, then the GFS ensembles may be too enthusiastic in generating TCs from persistent convection. I believe, unlike the Euro ensembles, which now have the same resolution as the op, the GFS ensembles are lower resolution than the operational model. But even if only a few ECENS show it, it can't be ruled out.

The lonely Euro ensemble member with a 989 mb high end TS/low end hurricane hitting near Cameron, LA week from Sunday is interesting.

[AtlanticWind]

18Z GFS has a tropical storm in the Carribean in about 9 days and then
lifting north into Florida thereafter.

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS at this point seems pretty excited about the idea of a CAG generating two storms, one in the EPAC and one in the Atlantic.

*Ok, so I'm fairly sure that something remotely like this isn't going to happen. But, if you live in Louisiana, feel free to not look at the last GFS run. That run really apparently hates the state.*

[Stratton23]

Not seeing any support from the Euro/ CMC guidance, GFS looks like its doing its typical model bias with pulling phantom energy up out of SA and trying to spin it up into something, I dont buy it

[jfk08c]

Not seeing any support from the Euro/ CMC guidance, GFS looks like its doing its typical model bias with pulling phantom energy up out of SA and trying to spin it up into something, I dont buy it

Euro ensembles have a pretty decent signal on the 0z run. Granted, it's the first run of the Euro we have seen this but worth keeping an eye on