18/9/4 with an ACE of 155
I’ll post a more in-depth analysis later next week, but here are my initial thoughts for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season:
Current SSTA Regime

It’s still uncertain what the ENSO state will be by ASO, but the most likely outcome is cool neutral or weak La Nina. Current hints with the snapshot from May 30th and the weekly SSTA chart from PSL show the signs of this materializing, and this configuration would favor activity in the Atlantic compared to the EPAC (more on this below).
Using the latest CANSIPS model for June, this is the forecasted ASO configuration and would also be a favorable sign for activity in the Atlantic:

If we focus in on just the Atlantic now, we do start to some negative parameters:

For starters, the greatest +SSTAs are in the subtropics (currently and forecasted), and the MDR, while warm, would likely experience periods of stability or subsidence caps with this configuration. There is still enough here to support a Cape Verde/east Atlantic season, but it will likely be muted (a common theme it feels over the past ~10 years).
Given I believe the most likely ENSO outcome is cool neutral this ASO, I plotted tracks (and geo density) to see what climatology hints at (this is for all months/named storms):


I want to also overlay this with the current CANSIPS precipitation forecast for ASO:

My main takeaways from all this are (1) given density tracks and weighted SSTA+ towards the subtropics, I would expect threats to the eastern Caribbean and more activity/tracks into the subtropics compared to last year; (2) the cool neutral/weak La Nina would favor activity in the Caribbean/GOM later in the season, especially during CAG events (a recent trend I believe will continue this season); (3) we will have a muted Cape Verde season, but enough juice for a few long tracking majors.