2025 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll: 92 members are participating in this poll

[cycloneye]

17/6/3 with 155 ACE

These numbers were randomly generated in my head and I have not actually looked at any seasonal guidance for this season — I've been very busy! But just wanted to throw some numbers into the ring before the season started.

#89 on the list.

[869MB]

21/9/4 - ACE 179

[cycloneye]

21/9/4 - ACE 179

#90 on the list.

[cycloneye]

Can we reach the 100 mark in less than 2 hours?

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... sive&csz=1

[CyclonicFury]

Make my numbers final.

[cycloneye]

Make my numbers final.

Done.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Been a hot minute since I've been here and looked at anything tropical for the NHEM, really. Alvin was a nice reminder to get this done.

That said, here's me throwing my moldy hat back into the ring.

NS - H - MH
17 - 9 - 5

ACE: 148

I think we're on for another above-average year, but current subtropical warmth + relatively uncertain and weak ENSO state has me a bit hesitant on hyperactivity. Still think we continue our active period we've been mostly on for the past decade (and even back to 1995, if you want to go that far). NOAA, CSU and other agencies with official forecasts are probably are in the right ballpark here. Hoping it all stays out to sea for us to enjoy the eye candy!

[cycloneye]

Been a hot minute since I've been here and looked at anything tropical for the NHEM, really. Alvin was a nice reminder to get this done.

That said, here's me throwing my moldy hat back into the ring.

NS - H - MH
17 - 9 - 5

ACE: 148

I think we're on for another above-average year, but current subtropical warmth + relatively uncertain and weak ENSO state has me a bit hesitant on hyperactivity. Still think we continue our active period we've been mostly on for the past decade (and even back to 1995, if you want to go that far). NOAA, CSU and other agencies with official forecasts are probably are in the right ballpark here. Hoping it all stays out to sea for us to enjoy the eye candy!

#91 on the list.

[USTropics]

18/9/4 with an ACE of 155

I’ll post a more in-depth analysis later next week, but here are my initial thoughts for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season:

Current SSTA Regime



It’s still uncertain what the ENSO state will be by ASO, but the most likely outcome is cool neutral or weak La Nina. Current hints with the snapshot from May 30th and the weekly SSTA chart from PSL show the signs of this materializing, and this configuration would favor activity in the Atlantic compared to the EPAC (more on this below).

Using the latest CANSIPS model for June, this is the forecasted ASO configuration and would also be a favorable sign for activity in the Atlantic:


If we focus in on just the Atlantic now, we do start to some negative parameters:


For starters, the greatest +SSTAs are in the subtropics (currently and forecasted), and the MDR, while warm, would likely experience periods of stability or subsidence caps with this configuration. There is still enough here to support a Cape Verde/east Atlantic season, but it will likely be muted (a common theme it feels over the past ~10 years).

Given I believe the most likely ENSO outcome is cool neutral this ASO, I plotted tracks (and geo density) to see what climatology hints at (this is for all months/named storms):



I want to also overlay this with the current CANSIPS precipitation forecast for ASO:


My main takeaways from all this are (1) given density tracks and weighted SSTA+ towards the subtropics, I would expect threats to the eastern Caribbean and more activity/tracks into the subtropics compared to last year; (2) the cool neutral/weak La Nina would favor activity in the Caribbean/GOM later in the season, especially during CAG events (a recent trend I believe will continue this season); (3) we will have a muted Cape Verde season, but enough juice for a few long tracking majors.

[cycloneye]

18/9/4 with an ACE of 155

I’ll post a more in-depth analysis later next week, but here are my initial thoughts for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season:

Current SSTA Regime
https://i.imgur.com/u43JS7K.png
https://i.imgur.com/qkpgjeO.png

It’s still uncertain what the ENSO state will be by ASO, but the most likely outcome is cool neutral or weak La Nina. Current hints with the snapshot from May 30th and the weekly SSTA chart from PSL show the signs of this materializing, and this configuration would favor activity in the Atlantic compared to the EPAC (more on this below).

Using the latest CANSIPS model for June, this is the forecasted ASO configuration and would also be a favorable sign for activity in the Atlantic:
https://i.imgur.com/tbIiYfs.png

If we focus in on just the Atlantic now, we do start to some negative parameters:
https://i.imgur.com/kQdkqVC.png

For starters, the greatest +SSTAs are in the subtropics (currently and forecasted), and the MDR, while warm, would likely experience periods of stability or subsidence caps with this configuration. There is still enough here to support a Cape Verde/east Atlantic season, but it will likely be muted (a common theme it feels over the past ~10 years).

Given I believe the most likely ENSO outcome is cool neutral this ASO, I plotted tracks (and geo density) to see what climatology hints at (this is for all months/named storms):
https://i.imgur.com/6pl8BKJ.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/q3pws9F.png

I want to also overlay this with the current CANSIPS precipitation forecast for ASO:
https://i.imgur.com/wYCZqmD.png

My main takeaways from all this are (1) given density tracks and weighted SSTA+ towards the subtropics, I would expect threats to the eastern Caribbean and more activity/tracks into the subtropics compared to last year; (2) the cool neutral/weak La Nina would favor activity in the Caribbean/GOM later in the season, especially during CAG events (a recent trend I believe will continue this season); (3) we will have a muted Cape Verde season, but enough juice for a few long tracking majors.

You are #92.

[Hurricane2022]

Hey Cycloneye, we're already very close to the 100-participant mark in this poll....Could you keep the poll open for just a few more hours to see if we can reach that number?

[cycloneye]

Hey Cycloneye, we're already very close to the 100-participant mark in this poll....Could you keep the poll open for just a few more hours to see if we can reach that number?

No. I have been doing this since the polls began in 2005 and I am no going to change the closing midnight hour. If it does not reach that mark, it's ok as we made this 2025 very close to that mark and I an satisfied with the participation with various sets of numbers from lower to higher ones.

[chaser1]

Whelp, here we go!! Please change my ACE prediction from 122 to 128. Please leave my remaining numbers unchanged.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks. The poll has closed with 92 participants and now we will wait the next 6 months to see which member(s) came close or nailed the numbers that the season will have. There were 14 members that did not changed their preliminary numbers to final so those now I have them as final.